Posted by: Timothy Ellis (The Tim)

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

131 responses to “Case-Shiller: Seattle’s Spring Bounce Picks Up Steam”

These comments are paged! This is page 2. Navigate the pages here:
1 2
  1. David S

    RE: David Losh @ 100 – oh good grief!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  2. David Losh

    RE: David S @ 1

    Been there? Seen it?

    Good Grief!

    We’re still fighting WWII.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  3. ARDELL

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 98

    LOL! Someone tell Kary that the rap singers use “hater”…not GWB. Lil’ Wayne, Jay-Z and Rihanna if you google it. Though personally I know it from Souja Boy. I recommend the Hilary Duff version for Kary. It ‘splains the Hater without any truly foul language mixed in.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  4. David Losh

    RE: ARDELL @ 91

    Agree with what? He didn’t say anything. He’s looking at numbers, but he has no analysis, or opinion about the numbers.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  5. ARDELL

    RE: David Losh @ 104

    You must have skimmed it…lots of opinion about the numbers, David. Most notably this:

    “If you dig into the numbers, what you see is a market grinding to a near standstill, with supply and demand both falling.”

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  6. David Losh

    RE: ARDELL @ 105

    I read it.

    I also know the same as anybody who is actually in the Real Estate business, and you know it too, that we are at the end of the school year when people have other things to do, like moving, or preparing for summer.

    There’s no digging into the numbers. It’s the business.

    He also goes on to make other ridiculous statements not pertaining to anything.

    The guy should find a buyer who can do something with the platform of redfin.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  7. ARDELL

    RE: David Losh @ 106

    …just like we know summer comes on July 5th…but we still live in the hope that one year it might actually come…on the first day of summer. :)

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  8. MichaelB

    RE: patient @ 99

    Yep! Hater.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  9. MichaelB

    By ARDELL @ 3:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 98

    LOL! Someone tell Kary that the rap singers use “hater”…not GWB. Lil’ Wayne, Jay-Z and Rihanna if you google it. Though personally I know it from Souja Boy. I recommend the Hilary Duff version for Kary. It ‘splains the Hater without any truly foul language mixed in.

    Ardell, you are hilarious!

    Kary, where are those comps??? I asked you for them several hours ago.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  10. Kary L. Krismer

    By ARDELL @ 3:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 98 – LOL! Someone tell Kary that the rap singers use “hater”…not GWB.

    Is there no limit to the scope of things you are wrong about? ;-)

    “I am not a hater. I don’t hate Kanye West,’ he [GWB] told ‘Today’ host Matt Lauer.”

    http://www.mtv.com/news/articles/1651917/george-w-bush-doesnt-hate-kanye-west.jhtml

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  11. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: MichaelB @ 9 – What comps? I’ve agreed there’s a discount for short sales. Everyone agrees to that and I’m not even sure why you ever thought I held a different opinion. What’s the point of giving comps to prove that? That doesn’t go at all to the issue of whether some listings are grossly under-priced, and I’m not about to publicly post comps to any active or expired listing showing that because there’s an agent behind such listings.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  12. Jonness

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 81:

    So tell me oh wise one, if you’re holding European financial assets, just where are you going to put your wealth?

    A default by Greece will be at least as bad as the collapse of Lehman. Did you put your money into the TBTF bank stocks when Lehman collapsed just because you needed to put your money somewhere? If so, you suffered monumental losses during the subsequent freefall of the U.S. financial system.

    Ask yourself this: everytime Greece has looked like it’s in trouble and might default, what direction have stock prices rapidly traveled? So far, it’s always been sharply down. If a true failure occurs, U.S. stocks won’t just correct sharply down; they will fall like a rock. The smart money will find a place to park, but, at least initially, it won’t be in U.S. stocks.

    And interestingly, about 99% of economists currently believe it’s not a matter of if Greece defaults, it’s when.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  13. Jonness

    By ARDELL @ 91:

    Talk about a “short season”. I agree with Glenn BTW.

    Gotta love this comment to the article:

    “As always, a good read. Thanks Glenn.
    Anecdotally, 5 houses down it looks like folks are moving out, and it is shown as a June 11 foreclosure on Redfin.
    We bought an REO June 2009, spent a lot remodeling, and a recent appraisal was exactly equal to what we paid. eh. “

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  14. MichaelB

    By Jonness @ 112:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 81:
    So tell me oh wise one, if you’re holding European financial assets, just where are you going to put your wealth?

    A default by Greece will be at least as bad as the collapse of Lehman. Did you put your money into the TBTF bank stocks when Lehman collapsed just because you needed to put your money somewhere? If so, you suffered monumental losses during the subsequent freefall of the U.S. financial system.

    Ask yourself this: everytime Greece has looked like it’s in trouble and might default, what direction have stock prices rapidly traveled? So far, it’s always been sharply down. If a true failure occurs, U.S. stocks won’t just correct sharply down; they will fall like a rock. The smart money will find a place to park, but, at least initially, it won’t be in U.S. stocks.

    And interestingly, about 99% of economists currently believe it’s not a matter of if Greece defaults, it’s when.

    Doh! (The smart money is buying property in Everett. ) Joness, how long does it normally take Kary to admit he’s wrong?

    …And some believe the “when” of Greece is August…So soon? Greece, we barely knew ye…

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  15. Jonness

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 97:

    Buying long term bonds in a low interest rate environment is risky, unless maybe you buy bonds of varying due dates and are willing to hold the longer term ones if necessary.

    Investors trade bonds on the secondary market and don’t need to hold the trade for 30 years.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  16. ARDELL

    RE: Jonness @ 113

    Have you ever seen an appraisal? There is very little room to add value for a “remodel” that is about finishes like new carpet. In the grand scheme of a 30 year mortgage, carpet needs to be replaced 3 or 4 times. Finishes become out of date, usually every 8 years or less, except the builders haven’t figured out what comes after Stainless Appliances and Granite Counters. When they do…the remodel will be “outdated”.

    The Standard Appraisal form values the real estate, so if you don’t add heated, living square feet in that “remodel”…it counts very little if at all on an appraisal.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  17. Jonness

    By ARDELL @ 16:

    …it counts very little if at all on an appraisal.

    Yes, but you are forgetting about the new cabinet knobs. They have to be worth at least $30K!

    As far as the granite being dated, I hear you 100%. :)

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  18. Kary L. Krismer

    By Jonness @ 12:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 81:
    So tell me oh wise one, if you’re holding European financial assets, just where are you going to put your wealth?

    A default by Greece will be at least as bad as the collapse of Lehman.

    Tell me, how many hours have you spent determining that? Which US entities are heavily invested in Greek assets or heavily invested in other entities which have Greek assets?

    I agree that potentially it could be just as bad or even worse than Lehman, but it could also be fairly insignificant here. My comment about the effect on the stock and bond market was expressly limited to the latter situation, and this is now the third time I’ve said that.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  19. Kary L. Krismer

    By Jonness @ 15:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 97:
    Buying long term bonds in a low interest rate environment is risky, unless maybe you buy bonds of varying due dates and are willing to hold the longer term ones if necessary.

    Investors trade bonds on the secondary market and don’t need to hold the trade for 30 years.

    This is from the person who just said that a default by Greece will be the same or worse as the default by Lehman? LOL. I’m now sure that opinion is worth a lot. /sarcasm.

    WTF do you think I was talking about? If they sell a low interest rate bond at a time after interest rates have risen relative to their purchase, they will sell the bond for a much lower price. My comment was implicitly assuming that they would sell and take a loss, and expressly mentioned the option of having laddered maturities to avoid the need to sell and thereby the need to take a loss.

    The fact remains that buying bonds at this point is not a clear route to safety, unless you assume that interest rates will not rise from their historic lows. I can see how some would make that assumption, but that is an assumption you would have to make and be correct on.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  20. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: ARDELL @ 16 – It sounds like there are three things going on. First, some (most?) remodels will not return dollar for dollar benefit. Second, since the remodel was done, the market could have declined in that area. Third, the appraiser might not be taking condition sufficiently into account–that’s been one of my complaints both directions. Sometimes a house is really run down and it gets little adjustment down and sometimes it’s extremely nice and gets little adjustment up.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  21. David Losh

    RE: Jonness @ 112

    It’s hard to sort out this mess you have going on here.

    Number one is the stock market; you are correct that volitility is good for stock investors. Stock investors have become a profit center that does nothing. We’re not really trading on the value, or worth of the compnay, we are trading on the equity, and investments of the company.

    So yes, a default by Greece would be volitile. A lot of bets would be won, and lost on both sides of the investment in stocks.

    Greece could however choose to say that the Euro was a bad idea, it is bad for the people of Greece, and go back to the Drachma . Now that would be some volitility, but it would be a prudent move. Spain, and Italy should follow. It would be the same as the end of the USSR.

    Oh, yeah, I forgot, it would negatively impact our very good Allies the French, Germans, and English.

    Well, it’s 2011, and about time the global economy stood on the merits of production rather than plunder. All of the people who orchestrated these grand financial schemes of profits before fair, and equitable, trade need to realize we are at the end of the road.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  22. ARDELL

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 120

    “…the appraiser might not be taking condition sufficiently into account–that’s been one of my complaints…”

    How can that be “one of your complaints” Kary? There is not even a real place to value “condition” in an appraisal. Never has been in the 40ish years I’ve been reviewing appraisals. (21 in real estate and 20 in banking)

    In the grand scheme of a 30 year loan:

    1) That new roof needs to be replaced. No value given.
    2) That newly painted house needs to be repainted. No value given.
    3) Just about anything you put in will become outdated, no value given.

    Why would an appraiser, the determinant of “sufficient collateral” for the lender on a 30 year loan, add any value at all for anything that is “newer”, but won’t retain that value for the life of the loan?

    If you didn’t add square footage or a 3rd vs 5th bedroom or a 2nd vs 4th bathroom, you didn’t add “value”
    .
    A buyer may knock off ten grand because a house is dirty. That becomes “the comp”. The appraiser is not going to add any of that back in when he uses that comp for a clean home’s valuation.

    The value of “extras”, on a combined basis, should never exceed more than 10% of the value of the home without them. Upgrades are supposed to be paid for by the buyer outside of the home’s valuation process, the same as they are when a home is being built.

    The bank is not supposed to finance those “improvements” when someone buys the “improved” house. They “buckled” to the “complaints” of agents during the hot market, not because they all of a sudden “valued” the upgrades. They did it because they added an appreciation factor that they deemed would cover the “error” of adding value for condition.

    They won’t do that again…and don’t complain about it, because they are correct not to value “condition”.

    Just like “should they count a short sale or bank owned?”. Had a call a couple of years back from a client who was refinancing telling me the appraiser bypassed one of the comps to stretch out and bring in a “distressed” property as one of the comps, even though the closest comps were not. The person refinancing was furious…I thought he was a pretty smart appraiser.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  23. Kary L. Krismer

    By ARDELL @ 122:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 120

    “…the appraiser might not be taking condition sufficiently into accountâ��thatâ��s been one of my complaints…”

    How can that be “one of your complaints” Kary? There is not even a real place to value “condition” in an appraisal. Never has been in the 40ish years I’ve been reviewing appraisals. (21 in real estate and 20 in banking)

    I’m going to have to ask if you’ve ever seen an appraisal. In the uniform appraisal reports I’ve seen “condition” follows “actual age” which follows “quality of construction.” I just looked at two and on one I saw a 15k adjustment for one comp and a 20k adjustment on one comp in the other appraisal.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  24. Kary L. Krismer

    By ARDELL @ 22:

    In the grand scheme of a 30 year loan:

    1) That new roof needs to be replaced. No value given.
    2) That newly painted house needs to be repainted. No value given.
    3) Just about anything you put in will become outdated, no value given.

    Why would an appraiser, the determinant of “sufficient collateral” for the lender on a 30 year loan, add any value at all for anything that is “newer”, but won’t retain that value for the life of the loan?

    You do realize that the appraiser is determining the value of the property on the date of the appraisal (or some other date specified if it’s for expert witness use), right? They aren’t determining the value of the house in five, ten or thirty years.

    A house with a roof that will last 30 years is more valuable today than a somehow identical house which has a roof which will fail in 5 years.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  25. ARDELL

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 123

    Really? I just looked at several and the only one that adjusted for condition was the one where the stove and dishwasher were ripped out, along with anything else the foreclosed-on owner could rip out of the wall. In other words, if something is failed or missing, yes, there is an adjustment for “that” condition. “condition” doesn’t mean what you think it does. If the roof needs to be replaced right now, there will be an adjustment for condition, or more likely an outright refusal to lend at all until that is corrected. If one has a 5 year old roof and another a 12 year old roof…no adjustment for the 7 year difference.

    Again, from my comment above:

    “The value of “extras”, on a combined basis, should never exceed more than 10% of the value of the home without them.”

    That includes bigger lot, a swimming pool, a tennis court. awesome landscaping, remodeled kitchen and baths.

    While it may appear that the appraiser is valuing “condition” up or down, it is an area to “fudge in”…or not, and there are very narrow parameters on a combined basis. So adding and subtracting for individual improvements is not the norm.

    “You do realize that the appraiser is determining the value of the property on the date of the appraisal (or some other date specified if it’s for expert witness use), right?”

    NO, that is what YOU think they are doing. What they are doing is verifying sufficient collateral for a 30 year loan for the person who hired them, the lender.

    When a buyer has 50% down the job is not as difficult as when the buyer has 10% down. The appraiser’s job is not to value it as a buyer would value it TODAY. Their job is to confirm that it represents sufficient value as collateral for the lender on the loan. What % of the value the lender is forking over is of consequence, as is the term of the loan. Always has been; always will or should be, whether you see that “in writing” or not.

    Never forget WHY the appraiser, is there and who hired him. If an appraiser is hired by an Executor for Estate Tax purposes the process and valuation will not be the same as when they are hired by a lender to insure sufficient collateral for the amount being borrowed. If the buyer is putting 80% down…the appraiser can do a drive by. :)

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  26. Kary L. Krismer

    By ARDELL @ 125:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 123

    Really? I just looked at several and the only one that adjusted for condition was the one where the stove and dishwasher were ripped out, along with anything else the foreclosed-on owner could rip out of the wall. In other words, if something is failed or missing, yes, there is an adjustment for “that” condition. “condition” doesn’t mean what you think it does. If the roof needs to be replaced right now, there will be an adjustment for condition, or more likely an outright refusal to lend at all until that is corrected. If one has a 5 year old roof and another a 12 year old roof…no adjustment for the 7 year difference.

    I’m not sure I would adjust much for a 7 year difference in a 30 year roof, but that is the sort of thing I’m talking about. To the extent it’s something a buyer would adjust for (e.g. really a really nice kitchen or a shake roof in marginal condition), the appraiser should adjust for it too, because it does affect value.

    http://blog.seattlepi.com/realestate/2007/10/30/determining-value-realtor-vs-appraiser/

    This is a piece I did about 4 years ago. The subject house had a horrible kitchen, as described, which included mis-matched cabinets and at least one door made out of plywood cut with a skil-saw. One of the appraisers comps was a much older house with exposed wood similar to Tim’s house. Only a minimal adjustment for condition by that appraiser.

    BTW, to the extent you’re not seeing adjustments for condition it’s possible that the appraiser is finding sufficient comps in similar condition. There doesn’t have to be an adjustment for condition, but if you’re looking at a subject property built in 1970 with an original kitchen and another built in 1971 with a recently remodeled kitchen, there should be a significant adjustment, or better yet perhaps that comp should be thrown out entirely.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  27. ARDELL

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 126

    This is the part where you get to say I’m “wrong” because I don’t agree with you, even though I am “right” as proven by the evidence in front of you.

    There is only one thing the appraiser needs to consider…does the house represent sufficient collateral for the amount being borrowed. The numbers are “backed in” to that equation.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  28. Kary L. Krismer

    By ARDELL @ 127:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 126

    This is the part where you get to say I’m “wrong” because I don’t agree with you, even though I am “right” as proven by the evidence in front of you..

    Huh, what evidence are you talking about? The evidence in front of me is of standard appraisal reports having a line item for an adjustment for condition and of $15k and $20k adjustments due to condition.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  29. ARDELL

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 26

    “BTW, to the extent you’re not seeing adjustments for condition it’s possible that the appraiser is finding sufficient comps in similar condition.”

    LOL…yeah…that must be “it”.

    Put your common sense hat on, Kary. When an underwriter calls out the appraisal at the last minute, even though “it appraised” on day 10, do you really think it’s because of “value” and “adjustments”? NO! It’s because the file is “on the fence” based on other issues like ratios and credit score and low downpayment.

    The appraisal is about collateral for the loan, not the “today buyer’s willingness to pay” value of the house.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  30. ARDELL

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 28

    THIS “evidence”…in your own words even:

    “…that is the sort of thing I’m talking about. To the extent it’s something a buyer would adjust for (e.g. really a really nice kitchen or a shake roof in marginal condition), the appraiser should adjust for it too, because it does affect value…The subject house had a horrible kitchen, as described, which included mis-matched cabinets and at least one door made out of plywood cut with a skil-saw. One of the appraisers comps was a much older house with exposed wood similar to Tim’s house. Only a minimal adjustment for condition by that appraiser.”

    You are agreeing with me that the appraiser is not doing what you want them to do, or what you think they should be doing.

    You are agreeing with me that what they ARE doing is more in line with what I am saying they are hired to do.

    So…maybe time to reset your expectations…no?

    Ever see a 1950’s built house with brand new kitchen cabinets appraised next to a comp where they only slapped new doors on cabinets from 1950 and then attached the same granite counters on top of the old cabinets? Usually…no adjustment for “condition” by the appraiser.

    It’s about collateral…the devil is not in the details…it is in the underlying collateral support for the loan…or not.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  31. Kary L. Krismer

    By Jonness @ 63:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 58:
    RE: – Depending on how widespread the fallout is on the Greece situation, it could actually be bullish for US stocks and bonds.

    If Greece fails, it will rock the financial systems throughout the world. The ensuing panic and fear will be off the charts. I can foresee how this could buoy a flight to the safety of U.S. bonds (despite our default risk), but I’m not so sure I would want to be long the stock market if this situation occurs. It seems to be a very risky strategy to me at the moment.

    To bump an idea:

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43823659/ns/business-real_estate/

    This article attributes the current low mortgage rates to money flowing out of Europe.

    To update though, I have a hard time finding another explanation for the relative strength of the stock market in light of our pending default.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

These comments are paged! This is page 2. Navigate the pages here:
1 2

Leave a Reply

Do you want a nifty avatar picture next to your name, instead of a photograph of Tim's dog? Just sign up with Gravatar, and make sure to use the same email address in the form below. It's that easy!

Please read the rules before posting a comment.

You have 5 comments remaining on this post.

Archives

Find us on Google+