Posted by: The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

16 responses to “Poll: Will you be buying any Zillow stock post-IPO?”

  1. ray pepper

    I will look at it at seriously at 3- 5.00 and see the support via volume it begins to get when it hits that strike point. Until then the sector is TOXIC as evidenced by LEDR and ZIPR.

    You should call this: ” Guess the close on day of OPEN then 30days post IPO to 1 year out. See who is closest. I say it TRADES down from its increased IPO price and will close the day at 15.15. Then pops up and down maybe even hitting 18-21 over 6 months but then down she goes!…Again, maybe good for a trade..

    However, tech as evidenced by LNKD and recent run on GOOG is hot hot hot but everyone will soon realize Z is not not not. 458 million valuation my butt!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  2. softwarengineer

    When a Company Needs Investors to Raise Money [$71M]

    It makes you wonder why.

    Is Zillow a good investment? Time will tell, but assuming the public stock offerring gets a good reception, its $18/share value could make you money…..or sink into the abyss, if real estate and websites flounder.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  3. Scotsman

    Buy it with what? Housing ATM cash? Didn’t you get the memo- everyone’s busted:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/17/sunday-review/17economic.html?_r=2&pagewanted=all

    “The Federal Reserve Bank of New York recently published a jarring report on what it calls discretionary service spending, a category that excludes housing, food and health care and includes restaurant meals, entertainment, education and even insurance. Going back decades, such spending had never fallen more than 3 percent per capita in a recession. In this slump, it is down almost 7 percent, and still has not really begun to recover.

    The past week brought more bad news. Retail sales in June were weaker than expected, and consumer confidence fell, causing economists to downgrade their estimates for economic growth yet again. It’s a familiar routine by now. Forecasters in Washington and on Wall Street keep saying the recovery’s problems are temporary — and then they redefine temporary.”

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  4. microsofties

    All of these stocks are huge turds…Zillow, linkedin, facebook, zynga, you name it…If they don’t go public now, they won’t have the funding to last when the real pain hits.

    Frontrunning the next leg down in the economy is easily predicted by the rush to IPO before it’s too late.

    Got gold, silver, and guns?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  5. doug

    Honestly, I was pretty blown away (in the bad sense), when Zillow changed their Zestimate formula.

    Our house fell a couple thousand, not a big deal. What IS a big deal, is that the past Zestimate data was retroactively changed.

    As a bit of history, I purchase the home for about $18,000 less than the Zestimate. At that time, the Zestimate was lowered to the purchase price. (I understand the reason for this, though It’s already making me question the Zestimate ‘formula’). When they changed their historicals, they smoothed out the Zestimate curve so that it appeared that they had predicted the price of my house correctly after all! The sale point now lies right on the curve.

    This, in my mind, is criminal. Not in a hyperbolic sense, but in a literal sense. You are mirespresenting your data, and making it look more accurate than it is. No matter how many ” This is all just for fun! Honest!” disclaimers they make, they are making money off the site by misrepresenting data. I’m told that they’ve done this several times before, and I’m beginning to suspect their ‘formula’ consists mostly of retroactively fitting curves to actual price points, giving it the illusion of predictive authenticity. Someone with some money is going to get angry, and they are going to get their tails sued off, and justifiably so.

    I may have gone on a bit long about this, but as an engineer, I’m deeply offended by a database going back and rewriting all their data (the historicals aren’t even available) in such a lassez faire manner. I’ve asked questions regarding the ethics of this practice several times, and, big surprise, recieved no response.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  6. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: doug @ 5 – Since it’s impossible to value a house without visiting the property and hopefully going inside, does it really matter that they change one historic imaginary number with another? It’s not likely to be accurate before or after the change.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  7. doug

    RE: microsofties @ 4

    Agreed. You have no idea how much. According to some rough math, people are valuating facebook at over $100 per user. As a Facebook user, I’ve never spent a penny on that site. I’ve never clicked an ad. I don’t know anyone who spends money or clicks ads on Facebook. Not to mention that math is including millions of languishing accounts that don’t see any use.

    That and the user base could disappear if any of the following happen:

    1) Facebook charges money for their service, or the advertising becomes obnoxious
    2) They get into real trouble with their privacy practices
    3) A cooler website comes along.

    There’s precedence for this, MySpace had a huge userbase, and it evaporated overnight.

    The only internet stock I’d even consider is Amazon. At least they sell actual products. For money.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  8. doug

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 6

    Yes, I think it does matter. (Though I certainly understand your point of view) Basing Zestimates on a formula that can’t possibly take into account the nuances of home estimation is inaccurate, and morally problematic.

    Fitting past data to actual data and presenting it as a predictive formula is unethical and, I believe, illegal. The accuracy is irrelevant.

    What an awful sham of a website.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  9. LA Relo

    And I thought the next bubble would be in commodities…

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  10. WestSideBilly

    Shot up to $60. Been trying to short it all morning. Oh well, hopefully I can get a short order in before it falls to $5 where it belongs. :)

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  11. David Losh

    I like Zillow.

    The entire idea of internet tech Real Estate was to establish a National Listing Service that was consumer driven.

    Many here complain about the Multiple Listing Services hoarding the “data.” Many Real Estate professionals would like to distance themselves from organizations, or Brokerages, that monoplolize the consumers interest.

    Zillow is the only online community that has half a chance of becoming a national listing site for consumers.

    Let me clarify that redfin could have become a site of national interest. The ownership made grave, serious, missteps in credibility. In my opinion redfin needs to change ownership, and mellow, for a cooling off period before it could be taken seriously as an investment.

    You can talk about zestimates all you want, but they are still a part of the national data scene, and Zillow did attract a mortgage originator following.

    There is something for every one to hate about Zillow, and a lot to like.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  12. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: David Losh @ 12 – Why do you think Zillow is the only one, when there’s Realtor.com and Trulia?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  13. Kary L. Krismer

    By WestSideBilly @ 11:

    Shot up to $60. Been trying to short it all morning. Oh well, hopefully I can get a short order in before it falls to $5 where it belongs. :)

    Are there any rules on shorting new issues? On this one I can see why they should have issued more shares–to short! ;-)

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  14. Jonness

    Hey Zillow bears! How about that IPO price?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  15. David Losh

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 13

    The way I understand it Zillow crawls assessor’s data. Agents input listings, consumers can input data, and the whole web site is interactive.

    Zillow is more out in the consumer community.

    The consumers may be upset with it, or not relate to it well, but in a world of redfin, Realtor, or Trulia, Zillow is the most consumer orientated.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

Leave a Reply

Do you want a nifty avatar picture next to your name, instead of a photograph of Tim's dog? Just sign up with Gravatar, and make sure to use the same email address in the form below. It's that easy!

Please read the rules before posting a comment.

You have 5 comments remaining on this post.

Archives

Find us on Google+