Redfin: June’s Warmest Puget Sound Region: NE Seattle

Full disclosure: The Tim is employed by Redfin.

Last Thursday Redfin released their June market data. Here’s an excerpt from the narrative (which I also wrote):

So far this summer the real estate market in Seattle is about as exciting as a Matlock Marathon at the High School Prom.

Very few quality, well-priced new listings are coming on the market, and when one finally does, it’s the same story every time as the few buyers that are out there all descend at once and end up bidding against each other.

“New listings are slow to hit the market, and buyers are getting frustrated with the inventory,” said Redfin Redmond/Bothell Agent Kurt Pepin. “Buyers are anxious to buy, but are also being very smart about their purchases. The pure emotional buy is gone, while crunching every number possible has become the new norm.”

New in this month’s report is the sweet Google Fusion Tables zip code heat map below. You can zoom in/out, and click on a zip code to get the detailed June numbers for that region.

Heat Map Color Legend

Note that the color being displayed on each zip code is based on whichever type of home (SFH, condo, townhouse) sold the most in that zip code.

In order to roll sales, inventory, and prices all into a single “heat” number, I created a new “heat index” for Redfin, where a market with 6.0 months of supply (end of month inventory / one-month closed sales) and +5.0% year-over-year appreciation in the median price per square foot translates to an index value of 75. For the full details, see the “Methodology” footnote on the Redfin post.

I plan to post the usual Tableau map later this week, but I’d love to get your feedback on this map and the new heat index. Thanks!

  

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

16 comments:

  1. 1
    Scotsman says:

    “Heat map?” Seattle? That’s not funny, Tim- it’s cruel. This is going to be the coldest summer on record in more ways than one.

    My neighbor put his house back on the market after taking 6 months off, but dropped his price $100K. Still too high now that the competition has dropped theirs too. Chasing it down.

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  2. 2

    RE: Scotsman @ 1 – I thought Tim was branching into weather! ;-)

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  3. 3
    supersparky says:

    I like the new map quite a bit more than the Tableau maps. I find it more performant and easier to navigate/visualize.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  4. 4
    ARDELL says:

    RE: Scotsman @ 1

    What color is your world? Do you live in Icy?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  5. 5
    Scotsman says:

    RE: ARDELL @ 4

    No, I live in Preston, closer to the mountains, where we’ve had an unusually cool spring and summer. It is currently raining. Everyone has given up on their gardens. We can occassionaly see blue sky to the west, over Bellevue. Now I understand why everyone wants to live there.

    My neighbor, however, lives in Nutsville. Who wants to pay $500K+ for no parking, acres of misquito breeding marsh, and the ability to sleep right next to the road?

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  6. 6
    MS says:

    This format is better than the Tableau format for easy visualization. Also, it seems to load much faster than the Tableau format. The Tableau format has more data available to dig into but I like this format better.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  7. 7
    MichaelB says:

    Very colorful…But what does it mean?

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  8. 8

    Either I’m being dense or nit-picky here ( both are good possibilities) but how is NE Seattle the warmest?
    The very highest heat index is the 98144 zip code at 99.7, Beacon Hill- South to Southeast Seattle.
    The second highest is the 98112 zip code, Capitol Hill, below the ship canal, not northeast.
    98103 is also very high, but that’s Wallingford, Fremont, Phinney, Greenwood, more north than Northeast.
    Sure, 98115 and 98105 are high, but 98118 ( Rainier Valley, Columbia City, Seward Park, all SE Seattle) and 98144 ( Beacon Hill) are also high. So what am I missing?

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  9. 9
    dvdivx says:

    The map doesn’t make sense. It would be better to map accepted offer vs list price to see how hot the market really is. Just listing gross sales would be too influenced by density.

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  10. 10
    Blurtman says:

    Comment on warm Sammamish – they are building like mad on 212th Ave SE/Thompson Hill Road. Like during the bubble. Why?

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  11. 11
    Lake Hills Renter says:

    Edit: Nevermind. I didn’t see the drill-down data.

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  12. 12
    Hugh Dominic says:

    I like this a lot more than Tableau.

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  13. 13
    Jonness says:

    By Scotsman @ 1:

    My neighbor put his house back on the market after taking 6 months off, but dropped his price $100K. Still too high now that the competition has dropped theirs too. Chasing it down.

    About a year ago, I found a house I really want to live in. Fortunately, the seller has adopted the classic chase the market down strategy. I’m considering buying it in 2012 or 2013. By then, I’ll have saved up much more cash, and the house will cost at least $100K less. :)

    This is the best housing market in history. I continue to slowly get richer by doing absolutely nothing! Then again, the 2003 through 2007 housing market was the worst housing market in history. People who bought and held are watching their wealth slowly evaporate into thin air.

    Unrelated… What’s up with AAPL? I scooped it up about 3 weeks ago when it bottomed, and its gone straight up ever since. Should I hold long term or take the short term profit?

    BTW, the heat map is totally awesome! Cool baby, cool.

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  14. 14
    LocalYokel says:

    Like the the heat map. Able to get a quick visual of where is hot or not, then
    you can drill down in the areas you like. Ain’t the intertubes grand?

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  15. 15
    WatchingSammamish says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 10 – I’ve seen lots of development going on there too. A new 41 home project on 10 acres off SE 48th st recently started, and many projects that I marked on Tim’s old stalled development map have since re-started or been completed. Several other new ones along Issaquah-Fall City road.

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  16. 16

    […] promised on Monday, I’d like to post the usual Tableau map of Redfin’s monthly Seattle-area market […]

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