Posted by: Timothy Ellis (The Tim)

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

33 responses to “Redfin: Capitol Hill & Wallingford Seattle’s Hottest Neighborhoods in August”

  1. softwarengineer

    Interesting Chart Concept Tim

    On the subjective end IMO, but irrespective, kind of tells you where the action is.

    A caveat would be to see a 2006 or 2005 chart and see how the colors compared.

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  2. Ray Pepper

    I’ll tell you whats hot hot hot! The new Human Centipede 2 Movie and Amazon Kindle Fire…..oh and also houses under 50k in Tacoma!!

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  3. Lake Hills Renter

    FYI. For some of us colorblind readers, your gray and light blue are hard to differentiate, at least on the map. The colors on the legend are better. Not sure why the shades are different between the map and legend, at least to my eyes.

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  4. Ira Sacharoff

    I’m trying to figure something out here. The hottest zip code on the map was 98116, parts of West Seattle. One of the coldest five neighborhoods is the Admiral District, part of the 98116 zip code, the only zip code in red. So where is the heat in the zip code coming from? One of the hottest five neighborhoods is in West Seattle, Delridge. But Delridge is not in the 98116 zip code. Color me confused.

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  5. 2kt

    RE: Ray Pepper @ 2

    Ray, they are overpriced at $50K in Tacoma. The only buyer will be you and when you sell, it would have to look in a mirror to find a buyer.

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  6. Scotsman

    Looks like winter is coming early to the foothills. The only place you’ll find heat out here is between a couple of highschoolers in the front seat of a F150 on Saturday night.

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  7. mukoh

    RE: 2kt @ 6 – There is also a whole row of those beauties from FDIC just about 43 of them coming into the spotlight at $50k. :)

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  8. 3rd Generation

    “4. The Tim
    September 29, 2011 at 3:03 pm | Permalink
    RE: Lake Hills Renter @ 3 – Thanks for the feedback. We’re still “in beta” on the heat map thing, trying out different ideas for our monthly reports at Redfin,”

    Could you tell me what its like to rattle your tin cup and beg for money one week and then then next week use the same people you were trying to pimp spare change from to comment on and sort out your fantasy map from your real job ?

    At this juncture, in my opinion, you’re No Better than a lousy used-house peddler planting a sign at the curb and hoping for the best without any further effort. You cannot have it Both Ways.

    You want money from me? Become relevant and Add Value.

    Hint: Get your ass out (or use your corporate connections) on the street and interview someone that matters related to real estate. Who is setting the trends? What are the new develpments going up using for materials? Is there anything major going on in material – solar etc.technology relating to housing? Find out more about say Mastro and the Prium boys. Something other that a rehash of existing material.

    Or, why not just pull the plug on the server and let the usual suspects have a roundtable between themselves?

    As for the flames coming my way, I don’t care what you think about these comments. You know I am correct here. This blog space could be a great resorce and source of revenue for the proprietor. THEN you COULD charge to play here.

    I’m done listening to this useless back-and-forth. Thus endeth the free lesson.

    You’re carrying the ball and the game is yours to lose. Good Night & Good Luck.

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  9. Scotsman

    OK, Mr. 3rd Generation- no more spicy meals for you! Since you seem to know what this blog needs I suggest your start your own and drive the competition out of business! Soon enough you’ll be rich!

    In other news, the market is about to take off! Ardell- care to call a bottom?!

    “”Fixed mortgage rates fell to all-time record lows this week following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of its Maturity Extension Program and additional purchases of mortgage-backed securities. Interest rates for ARMs, however, were nearly unchanged as the Federal Reserve plans to sell $400 billion in short-term Treasury securities, which serve as benchmarks for many ARMs.”

    http://freddiemac.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=12329&item=66434

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  10. Jonness

    I’m having a difficult time figuring out what that map is. My initial impression was that we were experiencing the onset of another ice age. But I’m pretty sure that’s not it. Is it a map of hell freezing over?

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  11. HappyRenter

    I find it interesting how it abruptly switches from warm to icy in NE Seattle north of 100th. A few areas of the city are very wanted, the rest gets little interest.

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  12. Ray Pepper

    RE: mukoh @ 8

    The “juicy” ones go in the 30′s..CASH COWS with 1000 rent…Our limit is 52k…Battling right now on 3 in the 40k range..

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  13. David Losh

    RE: Ray Pepper @ 13

    Why would any one gift you $1000 in rent?

    It makes no sense.

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  14. 2kt

    RE: Ray Pepper @ 13

    Good luck collecting $1,000 rent in that area.

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  15. ARDELL

    RE: Scotsman @ 10

    Wait until the politicians throw the Country under the bus again just before the election. But that will be the stock market “bottom”, not the housing market. Maybe the Republicans should throw in a $15,000 Tax Credit for buying a house in their campaign…since they don’t have any viable candidates. Oh yeah…that only works the week AFTER you are elected, never the week before. :)

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  16. MichaelB

    Would be better if the “heat” represented foreclosures, short sales, dropping prices, bankruptcies, abandoned houses. That would fit better with the “bubble” theme. I think people would enjoy it.

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  17. Voight-kampff

    RE: 3rd Generation @ 9

    Regarding yours, and the many other posts “dis’ing” thetim for his work with redfin etc.
    I would think/hope he feels an even larger duty or responsibility to be transparent & true to the data as a result of his employment.
    As a band musician myself, it’s funny how we are also called “sell-outs” and our integrity is challenged if we somehow manage to get paid for what we previously did for free.
    Sure there might be exceptions, but I would wager ( with the free beer I often receive in lieu of payment) that Thetim is not one of them. Keep it up The tim.

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  18. Ray Pepper

    RE: David Losh @ 14

    Has never been a problem considering Apartment rents are 750+ in the 98409,98467,98466,and 98338. We have been raising rents to 1050 as of late due to the demand. Fort Lewis is a HUGE factor in keeping demand up..

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  19. Ray Pepper

    RE: 2kt @ 15

    2k, I suggest going to CraigsList (apts/housing for rent) and search Tacoma (house) in subject line…Look at the rents.

    This should start the educational process for you and there is no such thing as “luck” in property management..

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  20. David Losh

    RE: Ray Pepper @ 20RE: Ray Pepper @ 19

    OK, I can see that, but as time goes on more properties will rent for less. We’re just now starting to see that in Seattle.

    Last year slum, I mean land lords got the idea they could raise rents because of an article in the Rental Property news letter. This year we are seeing people buying homes for a mortgage payment about what they were paying in rent.

    I see that as a trend of not just people buying homes, but desperate land lords who are facing more competition. As rents stabalize lower the neighborhoods of cheaper rents will need to be monitored more closely. The value of the property becomes a liability.

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  21. Ray Pepper

    Homes bought for less then 50k that need less then 10k work in decent areas will always be the ultimate no-brainer in Tacoma,Fircrest,UP, and Graham. The investment pays for itself in rental income in less then 5 years and these prices are GIFTS over the next decade. Finding the TRUE GEMS are what is difficult because there are ALOT of us out there. We can stand virtually any drop in rental rates and still yield an easy 15% return..Whats great is that there are skeptics out there and in my opinion….the more the better…

    As for rentals in Seattle…you can keep em..If they are over 50k we have no interest…The ROI is far better in Tacoma around schools and colleges…

    You can also keep ALL condos above 20k. Under 20k I look but have yet to pull the trigger on all these 15-20k bad boys at Trustee Sale. My friends differ in this opinion.. They simply make NO SENSE for me. Quite honestly I do not think you could give me one for FREE now. Between the dues, assessments, taxes, and insurance they are as TOXIC as they come…..If your contemplating BUYING one to LIVE IN…………trust me on this…………….RENT IT!!

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  22. 2kt

    RE: Ray Pepper @ 20
    You may collect the first check but after that will be mostly collecting eviction notices and repair bills. God’s speed, captain Ray.

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  23. 2kt

    RE: Ray Pepper @ 22

    After you account for all evictions, months of unpaid rent, repairs and vacancies, 15% will look like a dream, Ray.

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  24. Scotsman

    There’s a chill in the air, and it’s going to get worse:

    “Despite the high level of unemployment, wages have grown at a slow rate over the past two years — or at least they did. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported this morning that personal income dropped in August for the first time since October 2009 — and spending flattened to the rate of inflation”

    Falling income equals falling rents and falling home prices, especially when coupled with rising taxes and unemployment. What cash flows today may not look so good in a couple of years.

    http://hotair.com/archives/2011/09/30/income-declines-for-first-time-in-two-years-in-august/

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  25. softwarengineer

    RE: 3rd Generation @ 9

    I Can See Where You’re Coming From

    And the frustration you’re having with Seattle real estate. When I was younger and renting I felt Seattle real estate was like that gold key you grab from your merry go round seat and the gold key kept retreating everytime I got a little closer to grab it.

    Tim is doing a GREAT service to bring on the real estate news we don’t get from the MSM. Can Tim fix all the Seattle real estate affordability problems 99% of the buyers are smacked in the face with right now? Hades no. IMO, only higher wages [like Scotsman elluded] can remedy that, and that just ain’t gonna happen with a population density increase in Seattle that has no end.

    So yes, we Bubble heads are weak voices of reason in an economic cyclone.

    But if you’ve read SB over the years, many have stayed renting with the knowledge Tim provided and have kept them and their families from the underwater deluge of debt. MSM, in general, on the other hand told us to follow the lemmings over the cliff.

    Being fore-warned and informed is much better than just giving up, albeit, I do agree with you on one issue…..none of us Bubble Heads or anyone else for that matter, really has a solution to this economic quagmire we’re in. But we can limit the pain and keep it perhaps bearable for a period of time at least.

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  26. softwarengineer

    RE: 3rd Generation @ 9

    Tim’s Donation Collections

    I have my own opinion on contributors being identified and singled out in any blog site and perhaps side with you on this issue too.

    IMO, all charity contributions should be done in secret. Even when charities are collected in a company environment, it must be confidential. Let’s put it this way, I’ve done charity collections, and some gave nothing…..did I care? Hades no. Many of them were tithing at their churches or taking on a homeless guest in their homes, it made our puny contributions a joke.

    You have to take everything into account in all aspects of life.

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  27. wreckingbull

    RE: 3rd Generation @ 9 – Yeah Tim, why don’t you go out and interview some people who really know things about real estate. Like David Lereah, John Lennox Scott, or Kendra Todd. You amateurs think you know it all. Just leave it to the pros.

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  28. Ray Pepper

    RE: wreckingbull @ 28

    Kendra Todd is kinda hott!! Leave her to me…Tim gets ALL the interviews anyway….I’ll interview her……………………………….PLZ!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X97CyPLMAVs&feature=related

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  29. Scotsman

    RE: Ray Pepper @ 29

    Call her up- Kendra @ 206.395.9550. You can tell her how to get rich “God’s way” by buying future crack shacks in Tacoma. ;-)

    Yes, Ray- you’re still early.

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  30. Ray Pepper

    RE: Scotsman @ 30

    love it!! Can’t call her…The girl on my website (wife) will be all over me..

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  31. Jonness

    By 3rd Generation @ 9:

    I’m done listening to this useless back-and-forth. Thus endeth the free lesson.

    You’re carrying the ball and the game is yours to lose. Good Night & Good Luck.

    Are you a frustrated RE agent or builder? I’m trying to figure out who else would give a rat’s rear end about what materials builder A and B are using. Really, who cares about this stuff? Most of us are more interested in the excellent market analysis provided by this website (like the icy cold heat map that’s currently scaring the bejesus out of anyone considering buying a house in Puget Sound).

    If you would like to visit another website that features a different theme and contents, you might try google. Here’s a good start:

    http://www.ecohaus.com/

    On another note: Winter house price drops are around the corner! The trend is your friend. Pity the fools who bought this Spring (unless they scored a rare great deal).

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  32. Jonness

    By Ray Pepper @ 29:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 28

    Kendra Todd is kinda hott!! Leave her to me…Tim gets ALL the interviews anyway….I’ll interview her……………………………….PLZ!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X97CyPLMAVs&feature=related

    She’s only good looking when she keep her mouth shut. As soon as she opens her mouth and exposes that extraordinarily low IQ, she’s no longer attractive. So, be sure and bring a roll of duct tape along on your first date. :)

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