Case-Shiller: Six to Sixteen Years of Lost Appreciation

Okay one last Case-Shiller post this week: The national “rewind” map, and the month-to-month city count visualization. First up, the map.

As a refresher, in the map below I’ve put the Case-Shiller home price index data from all twenty cities on a map. The size of each circle represents how far back prices have rewound (larger = further back), and the circles are color-coded by how much prices have fallen from their peak value. Float over a circle for the details about that city.

Most years lost: Detroit at 15.8. Seattle is number 18 out of the 20 cities with just 7.0 years lost.

Largest percentage lost: Las Vegas at 60.0%. Seattle is number 12 with 29.5% lost from the peak.

Next, the month to month visualization I introduced last month, showing the number of cities experiencing month to month gains and losses each month:

Case-Shiller Home Price Index: # of Cities Experiencing MoM Gains, Losses
click this text for a full chart back to 2000

I think it’s crazy how in just three months we’ve gone from all twenty cities showing gains to just three cities increasing. Summer certainly didn’t last long for home prices this year.


About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

26 comments:

  1. 1

    SWE Got the Good Years Out of Seattle

    Back when the existing freeways weren’t clogged with twice or three times the cars [like today], and minimum wage got you an apartment, car and food.

    What’s the future lost years gonna tell us…..wait until after the Seahawks play the Eagles tonight at 5 PM….we need some upbeat news, hopefully.

  2. 2
    Doug says:

    Things have hit an all time low when you are counting on the Seahawks to possibly deliver good news.

  3. 3

    I like the red and green Xmas chart. That gives an interesting perspective.

    The first chart, however, really isn’t that useful. The third chart in your regular C-S report gives the same information much better. It shows you the volatility of the cities you select.

  4. 4
    Scotsman says:

    RE: Doug @ 2

    Seriously! If we’re waiting on the Seahawks to deliver good news it’s going to be a long, cold winter.

  5. 5
    BoredAtWork says:

    The overall macro-eco negativity here seems to becoming more prevalent. Despite most of the data (Tim’s lovely charts) indicates otherwise.

    The second chart seems to further show that we are approaching some sort of stabilization where the MOM change in home price is decreasing in amplitude. Thus, the volatility of MOM positive to negative is increasing as YOY change in price converges towards low single digit declines.

    I don’t think you can really say that we won’t take a big leg down (for a whole gamut of reasons), but it sure seems this goes to further conclude the massive bubble bursting correction is running out of steam.

  6. 6
  7. 7
    jfv411 says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1
    “Back when the existing freeways weren’t clogged with twice or three times the cars [like today]”

    Maybe I haven’t been in Seattle long enough but the traffic has seemed pretty consistent and apparently hasn’t seen significant growth in 15 years…
    http://www.sightline.org/maps/charts/should-we-trust-wsdot-traffic-projections

  8. 8

    RE: Scotsman @ 4 – Is the game not on free TV? What happened to the rule that the local team had to be on broadcast TV?

  9. 9
    Dweezil says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 7:

    RE: Scotsman @ 4 – Is the game not on free TV? What happened to the rule that the local team had to be on broadcast TV?

    The game is on JoeTV, Comcast channel 10. Not sure if it is actually considered broadcast tv.

  10. 10
    Scotsman says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 3

    Yup, the Xmas tree graph is a good one, very clever. I keep trying to visualize what it would look like with a balanced market. Half red, half green? We haven’t seen that yet.

  11. 11
    Jonness says:

    By BoredAtWork @ 5:

    The overall macro-eco negativity here seems to becoming more prevalent. Despite most of the data (Tim’s lovely charts) indicates otherwise.

    it sure seems this goes to further conclude the massive bubble bursting correction is running out of steam.

    It’s probably best that you don’t quit your day job just yet.

    http://seattlebubble.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Japanese-US-Housing-Bubbles_2011.png

  12. 12
    FenceSitter says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1
    Well, after that last interception for a SeaHawk’s touchdown, I think they got it. Unless they really screw it up in the last 4 minutes.

  13. 13
    Scotsman says:

    RE: Jonness @ 10

    “don’t quit your day job ”

    Realtor? ;-)

  14. 14
    RAY PEPPER says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1

    Hawks WIN!! Took 4 Interceptions but WE WIN!! Now thats the good news!! Heres the bad:

    http://bucks.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/30/foreclosure-crisis-isnt-even-halfway-over-analysis-finds/

  15. 15
    Scotsman says:

    RE: RAY PEPPER @ 13

    Wow- that’s great. I may have to become a more active fan. Don’t break my heart, Hawks!

  16. 16
    Jonness says:

    By Scotsman @ 12:

    RE: Jonness @ 10

    “donâ��t quit your day job ”

    Realtor? ;-)

    LOL! Good one :)

  17. 17
    patient says:

    This must be another false doomsday propaganda piece. Everyone knows that it’s always a good time to buy but it’s absolutely bullet proof if you are going stay for ten years, so 16 years must be bubble nonsense.

  18. 18

    By Dweezil @ 9:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 7:
    RE: Scotsman @ 4 – Is the game not on free TV? What happened to the rule that the local team had to be on broadcast TV?

    The game is on JoeTV, Comcast channel 10. Not sure if it is actually considered broadcast tv.

    Thanks, but I saw this too late. I don’t have a normal Comcast box, so just flipping through the channels wasn’t an option.

  19. 19

    RE: jfv411 @ 7

    Job Deterioration the Last Decade has Reduced Traffic Somewhat

    But is that good news?

  20. 20

    RE: RAY PEPPER @ 14

    Yes Ray

    And the article assumes the present backlog to be processed, I’d add current/new backlog in back of old backlog too. It ain’t over until the fat Freddie/Fannie lady sings…

  21. 21
    Macro Investor says:

    By BoredAtWork @ 5:

    … it sure seems this goes to further conclude the massive bubble bursting correction is running out of steam.

    Sigh… Even on a site like this is seems few bother to notice what’s beyond the event horizon. I assume everyone saw the budget debate. The US will eventually be forced to live on a budget. Europe is showing us the result of that. Massive job losses. Stocks in the gutter. Not very housing bullish.

  22. 22

    By softwarengineer @ 1:

    What’s the future lost years gonna tell us…..wait until after the Seahawks play the Eagles tonight at 5 PM….we need some upbeat news, hopefully.

    Not only did the Hawks win, but unemployment is down .4%.

    (But be like the press and virtually ignore the fact that .3 of that about is due to people giving up looking for work.)

  23. 23

    […] the damage has been done. Adjusting for inflation, all appreciation in the ’00′s is […]

  24. 24
    ChrisM says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 22 – I had to laugh today, and I immediately thought of you. NPR this evening was talking about the improvement in the economy since unemployment numbers were down!!!

    Amusing to me, since their “business” program is extremely anti-business and completely ignorant of basic economic knowledge. Case in point: going to http://www.marketplace.org/ presents a headline that says “Jobless rate falls to lowest level since 2009”:

    http://www.marketplace.org/topics/economy/jobless-rate-falls-lowest-level-2009

    That program is like something out of Atlas Shrugged.

  25. 25
    Question Mark says:

    Interesting charts, but one nit to pick with the first (map chart with circles). Dallas and Seattle are almost identical in years lost (Seattle’s is 6% higher than Dallas’s at 7 vs 6.6) but Seattle’s circle appears to be double the size of Dallas (qualitative judgement). If the area of each circle was proportional to the datum being represented, the picture would be a better representation of the relative differences.

  26. 26
    NewHomeOwnerInFremont says:

    deleted post

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