Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.
Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:
- Low Tier: < $235,142 (down 1.3%)
- Mid Tier: $235,142 – $380,225
- Hi Tier: > $380,225 (down 1.3%)
First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through November 2011.
Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:
All three tiers continued to fall in November, with the low tier taking the biggest hit. The low tier fell 2.3% MOM, the middle tier dropped 1.8%, and the high tier lost 0.4%.
Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through November 2011.
The high and low tiers seem to be diverging fairly sharply here over the last few months, with the high tier improving one point while the low tier lost a point. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of November – Low: -13.7%, Med: -9.3%, Hi: -3.7%.
Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.
Current standing is 41.4% off peak for the low tier, 34.4% off peak for the middle tier, and 27.2% off peak for the high tier. The middle tier joined the low tier in setting a new post-peak low point in November.
(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 01.31.2012)
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By Kary L. Krismer @ 88:
Nah, you should save that title for Warren Buffet.
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By Sweet Pea @ 70:
“Life is awfully short to spend it tied to a house, and letting that ball and chain dictate major life choices. People don’t have job security, for the most part. Maybe their pension is underfunded, maybe they planned on moving up and hate their neighborhood now. After several years of a big mortgage payment, stagnant wages, and maybe missed opportunities, how long will people put up with that? Maybe their in love with their house and location, but I’m not sure if that’s the norm these days.”
Excellent points all. Does this mean you have committed to never getting yourself in that position?
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By Tatiana Kalashnikov @ 69:
If this is your real picture – you are much hotter than Jonness! Is it true you are actually software engineer?
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By Jonness @ 100:
Read again. What I’ve always said is that real estate prices are dependent on many different factors, and you can’t just focus on one or even a handful of factors. I’ve never denied, and often admitted, that many factors were negative. The economy almost collapsed in 2008-early 2009.
What I’m saying is you made the safe prediction back then, and now you’re patting yourself on the back claiming that you made some far out prediction.
Stated differently, you’re one of the many sheep in this country, not a ground-breaker. You hold the opinion of the common person.
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[...] of the Office of Economic and Financial Analysis is a Seattle Bubble reader, citing my chart of the decline from peak in Seattle’s Case-Shiller tiers in a recent presentation to the Regional Policy Committee (be patient, the video takes a little [...]
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