Posted by: Timothy Ellis (The Tim)

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

14 responses to “King County’s Low-End Regions Over 4014 Off Peak Price”

  1. BubbleBuyer

    Something is definitely happening in the housing market close in, perhaps because inventory is lower than normal. In Queen Anne, there are 73 SFRs under contract/pending or active on Redfin, and 34 under contract/pending. I haven’t seen that much activity in winter. It will be interesting to see how the dynamics shift come spring.

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  2. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: BubbleBuyer @ 1 – I’m showing slightly different numbers, but I was surprised to see that only about a third of those pendings were short sales. I thought that stale short sale pendings might have been the explanation, but it wasn’t. Most of the non-short sale pendings have gone pending since the beginning of the year, so they aren’t a bunch of stale pendings either.

    Numbers from NWMLS sources, but not compiled by or guaranteed by the NWMLS.

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  3. Sparky

    I’m having some trouble understanding the last table. In the column labeled “region,” I was expecting to see “South King”, “Seattle / North King / Vashon”, and “Eastside” instead of low, mid & high. Am I just not understanding what those are representing? The data doesn’t seem to exactly match the graph above, so I suspect it’s charting something different, but it’s not clear to me exactly what it is.

    Thanks!

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  4. Natalia Orinko

    My only experience as you know is what has happened in the Central Valley of California. All tiers eventually converged at minus 50%, and some properties are down 60%. Seattle is not Sacramento, but my bet is on Seattle falling by at least 50% before it’s over.

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  5. whatsmyname

    Where are those people from the reader’s rant post. It seems like the median wage earner can afford a median house. It’s in South County.

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  6. WannaBuy2012

    So I want to buy. I’ve read the blog posts back through 2011 and beyond. Last few weeks (on the eastside) it seems like the inventory has gone down even more, since your earlier posts regarding 2012 inventory. I mean, seriously, like nothing but a few crappy houses on the market for the past 3 weeks ($475 to $625 range). Even the new short sales are so lame.

    Seems like this Feb is far worse than Feb 2011 for inventory rate. Could this mean far less new listings for the usual April through June spike when the pretty line on the inventory charts usually shoots upward?

    I am guessing total count of inventory could be 30 to 40% below last year’s rate? All I see is crappy housing selection! Then again, it’s only February. But seems like the next few weeks rate of climb could dictate the entire summer with regards to inventory!

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  7. Azucar

    RE: WannaBuy2012 @ 7

    “Buy now or be lack of quality inventoried out forever!”

    The new battle cry of the realtor!

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  8. softwarengineer

    RE: Natalia Orinko @ 5

    The Argument Against You Will be the Percent of Foreclosed Homes is Low Compared to All Homes in the Seattle Area

    Pure hogwash Natalia, the percent of homes for sale compared to all homes is very low too.

    The horrifying calculation I’ve never seen Tim use [but perhaps he did anyway?]:

    % of foreclosed homes of all homes divided by the % of all homes for sale of all homes. I’m guessing its about 50% right now in the Seattle area. That’s HORRIFYING.

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  9. softwarengineer

    RE: Azucar @ 8

    And Pay Half the Price Later Anyway?

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  10. David Losh

    RE: Azucar @ 8

    I’m going to respond to this because it is more to the point.

    Real Estate agents should be talking to people about selling. If you have the ability to sell you should. There is no reason to hold onto the family home other than for nostolgia. Your money could go into rental property if you want to leave something for the children.

    In Europe people rent for generations, and I think we will go through a period of that here, kind of like in New York.

    If you own rental property this is the time to assess if that is the best investment you could have. It would be a good time to make some trades.

    The reasoning is clear, and we have rehashed it a thousand times, but there should be a lot of people wanting to sell right now.

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  11. Lily

    Hi Tim,
    Thanks for doing the chart! I realize it’s hard to get historical data by region (I have never seen anyone plot it). Can you elaborate on your methodology? What do you mean by “the median of the medians for each area”?

    I was not aware that SFHs still averaged around half a million on the Eastside! I suppose there weren’t many distressed sellers on the Eastside due to Microsoft hiring and salary increases.

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  12. Blurtman

    RE: Lily @ 12 – In Sammamish, they are bulding $600k and up SFH’s. Go figure.

    Million dollar megamansions, too.: http://www.buchanhomes.com/communities/index.php?id_com=18

    In the past 12 months, long dormant developments have reactivated, and homes are sprouting up like mad.

    The Crossings is one example, which includes a reactivated, formerly bankrupted Buchan development. Starting in the mid-$700k range.: http://www.americanhomeguides.com/New-Homes/Washington/Sammamish/19469/

    The recovery has arrived! Buy now, before you are priced out foreverrrrrrrrrrrrrr……

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