Posted by: Timothy Ellis (The Tim)

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

7 responses to “Foreclosures Ticked Up Slightly in January”

  1. deejayoh

    I have to say, your “Ticked up” headline compared to volumes that are down 50% YoY sounds like one we used to make fun of…

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  2. Basho

    Has the relationship between NTS’s and trustee deeds been stable over time?

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  3. Scotsman

    I’m not expecting a big surge in new foreclosures, thinking we’ve reached an equilibrium of sorts. While the pipeline may still be bloated the number of additional new foreclosure candidates is relatively stable. And banks seem to be thinking it’s better to bleed off the current inventory, not just dump it all at once. Limitations on capital and reserve requirements also play into that strategy.

    I’ve been watching a number of known foreclosures, both sales and pending auctions, and not much is changing. The price reductions on the sales have stopped heading into the spring sales season. Much of the old inventory is finally selling and new inventory is nowhere to be seen.

    I think it’s going to be a long, slow year. Little inventory, fewer price declines, just bumping along in the bottom of a rut until something bigger happens in the macro environment.

    Interestingly, location may matter more now than it has over the past few years. Parts of the country are relatively stable, some are really hurting, some are staring future pain in the face, but not yet blinking. Seattle may be relatively stable. California has yet to fully adjust. Las Vegas continues to die, at least in most areas. Unlike the past where everything was headed in one direction- down- a little bit more thought is now required.

    Anything south of I-90 remains a wastland

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  4. deejayoh

    RE: The Tim @ 2 – nah, not sensationalist. Just the tricky balance of m2m vs. yoy trends.

    But look at the chart, and draw a smoothed line through the months. Pretty clear the worst is over.

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  5. deejayoh

    Look at this chart today from Calculated Risk

    Per MBA, 2% of WA mortages are “in foreclosure”. This is compared to a long run average of about 1.2%. So really, we are only about 0.8% over the long run average – and this is dropping. And dropping faster in WA than judicial states – which are the ones propping up the national averages.
    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-DYEQSQ0bm_U/Tz2eFKt_0hI/AAAAAAAAMJw/q6kOBVMfcUk/s1600/MBANDSstateQ42011.jpg
    Tim’s chart shows that the rate of NTS at the front of the foreclosure pipeline has returned to a more normal level as well – at least consistent with the 2000-2005 time frame.

    The pig is passing through the snake.

    And the thing that is driving the appearance of banks moving slower is the fact that they are moving more aggressively against borrowers who haven’t been paying for a long time. When they finally move against these loans, it drives the averages up for time to foreclose. Doesn’t take too many loans that haven’t made payments in 12 to 18 months to drive up the overall averages for time to process.

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  6. yosef

    RE: Scotsman @ 4

    “Anything south of I-90 remains a wastland”
    Um, kind of wish that were true. Gotta go further south before it’s a wasteland. Summerset, Newcastle, Mercer Island, all south of I-90, prices still feel very high and demand is strong.

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