Posted by: The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

52 responses to “Weekend Open Thread (2012-04-13)”

  1. softwarengineer

    Speaking of Finding Seattle Area Neighborhoohs With Good Schools

    At one point I thought Edmonds was a good school neighborhood, times may change….

    “Classes at a high school in Edmonds have been canceled following threats to student safety.

    The Edmonds School District said it received information from Lynnwood Police late Thursday and decided to cancel classes Friday at Meadowdale High. Police say an Internet posting mentioned threats to students. Police are investigating to determine whether the threats were credible….”

    http://today.seattletimes.com/2012/04/threats-prompt-closure-of-edmonds-school/

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  2. redmondjp

    Beware the ides of March!

    Anybody else doing taxes this weekend?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  3. wreckingbull

    RE: redmondjp @ 2 – This is the time of year when I get in a real bad mood. Not so much caused by tax rates, but rather the ridiculous tangle of tax code many of us have to navigate – especially small business owners. Every year I think that things have gotten so bad, that an overhaul will happen. Every year, I am wrong.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  4. No Name Guy

    RE: wreckingbull @ 3

    It won’t change until every last member of Congress is forced to do their own taxes, by hand, without an accountant or other help, using only information from the IRS web site.

    The stupidest piece of garbage in this years forms is HAVING to do the stupid AMT form. WTF? I hit that spot the other night and threw up my hands, pushed the forms away and had a beer. I’ll be calmed down enough to finish it off this weekend.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  5. wreckingbull

    RE: No Name Guy @ 4 – My worst scenario was the wild goose chase I encountered when we gave away an old car as a gift, that had been used 1/2 of the year for the business. This was not a company owned vehiclie. It was a personal vehicle which was expensed with standard per-mile rates.

    You would think this is a simple scenario. Nope.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  6. ChrisM

    RE: No Name Guy @ 4 – Two more suggestions to bring it under control:

    1. Entire payment due at once. No withholding in advance

    2. Taxes are due on Election Day

    Aaaand the chance of that happening is the same as me becoming the Benevolent Leader

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  7. One Eyed Man

    RE: No Name Guy @ 4RE: wreckingbull @ 3

    http://www.taxalmanac.org/index.php/Internal_Revenue_Code:Sec._341._Collapsible_corporations_-_REPEALED

    The above referenced section on Collapsible Corporations was repealed in 2003. I was kind of disappointed because it was my favorite section on the impenetrability and absurdity of the IRS code. If I recall correctly it contained a single sentence over 270 words long.

    According to a story I heard, a former assistant sec of the treasury was in a meeting concerning whether the capital gain on a corporation would be taxed as ordinary income because it was a collapsible corporation under IRC 341. He told the meeting it wasn’t a problem. Somebody at the table said “why not?” And the former assistant sec said “because there are no collapsible corporations in Buffalo. The other guy said “how can that be?” The assistant sec said he used to be in charge of that internal revenue district and there was no one in the Buffalo office who knew anything about collapsible corporations so there were no collapsible corporations in Buffalo.

    That’s one of the weird differences between natural law and laws of man. If a plane violates the laws of physics, it falls out of the sky, but if it violates the laws of man, it flies until somebody says it doesn’t and convinces everybody he’s right.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  8. Blurtman

    RE: One Eyed Man @ 7 – Well, at a certain level, it is all theoretical and basically convention and nuance. The goal is to be in the directing and influencing inner circle, and to have the inside knowledge. Of course, it is particularly annoying to see the two sets of laws and quite unlevel playing field.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  9. Blurtman

    Human Eggs Grown in the Lab Could Produce Unlimited Supply of Humans

    1.) How the Republicans re-capture the voting majority
    2.) The plot for a Schwarzenegger movie
    3.) The Clone Wars begin
    4.) Where to find the folks who will pay the deficit bill

    http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2012-04/lab-grown-human-eggs-made-stem-cells-could-make-women-fertile-forever

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  10. Blurtman

    Would it be un-PC to suggest that the judge handling the Zimmerman murder trial is a knock-out?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  11. No Name Guy

    RE: One Eyed Man @ 7

    Yeah….that’s the difference between those who live in the physical world (e.g. farmers, engineers, doctors, etc)….those that must deal with physical reality, and those that live in fantasy world (e.g. lawyers, accountants, politicians) where reality is what ever they say it is with no fixed F=mA un-violate-able rules….where one can BS and blah, blah, blah a good story and do just about anything they darn well want without restraint.

    effing lawyers. Shakespeare was right. Kill ‘em all, let The Almighty sort ‘em out.

    (the last is only half in jest)

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  12. Kary L. Krismer

    By The Tim @ 12:

    RE: redmondjp @ 2 – What? No way, I did mine months ago. Just got my check in the mail from the IRS earlier this week.

    Works for Redfin.
    Has a very successful website.
    Gets a refund by check?
    Does not compute.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  13. Kary L. Krismer

    By No Name Guy @ 4:

    The stupidest piece of garbage in this years forms is HAVING to do the stupid AMT form. WTF?

    That is fun. Originally that applied to very few people.

    The IRS likes to make things difficult. I’m not sure if the statute has changed, but the language on balancing out net capital gains and losses is virtually incomprehensible, even though how to do it very easy. In law school my professor spent an entire class hour going through the language, and then the next day he spent about 5 minutes going through the easy method I had learned in business school.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  14. deejayoh

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 13:

    By The Tim @ 12:
    RE: redmondjp @ 2 – What? No way, I did mine months ago. Just got my check in the mail from the IRS earlier this week.

    Works for Redfin.
    Has a very successful website.
    Gets a refund by check?
    Does not compute.

    I call a refund check a repayment of the money you were loaning the government. Sorry, I’d rather be paying. The end amount that you owe is exactly the same, and you get the use of your money longer.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  15. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: deejayoh @ 15 – If you’re self-employed it’s better to risk overpaying, because if you underpay you need to pay the balance owing plus 25% of the total balance by April 15. So let’s say your tax bill was $10,000 and you’d only paid in $8,000, you’d need to pay in $2,000 plus $2,500.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  16. redmondjp

    By The Tim @ 12:

    RE: redmondjp @ 2 – What? No way, I did mine months ago. Just got my check in the mail from the IRS earlier this week.

    I would do that, but for whatever reason, some of the institutions that send us documentation required in order to complete the taxes are sending stuff as late as March.

    And one child is manageable, but after that . . . let’s just say that the free time, well I really don’t even know what that term means anymore!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  17. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: The Tim @ 18 – My comment wasn’t about the refund, but about having a check mailed to you. Seems low tech. Why not direct deposit?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  18. Scotsman

    Little boys do taxes. Real men go for building permits- when they’re on septic.

    Just say’n . .

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  19. yukon dave

    Sir Tim, I love this site and the facts that it shows. I am working on an article for a column I write showing the story of two cities, Detroit & Seattle. My focus is to look at the relationship between jobs and real estate. When you take into consideration that over the last 12 months Boeing has won almost $100 billion in contracts, Amazon has dethroned Best Buy and Nordstroms and Microsoft have been solid performers you can begin to see the groundwork for a cause and effect relationship between jobs and housing prices.
    The question is how much is that effect?
    Have you thought of a chart that compares real estate sales to Washington State GDP?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  20. redmondjp

    By yukon dave @ 22:

    Sir Tim, I love this site and the facts that it shows. I am working on an article for a column I write showing the story of two cities, Detroit & Seattle. My focus is to look at the relationship between jobs and real estate. When you take into consideration that over the last 12 months Boeing has won almost $100 billion in contracts, Amazon has dethroned Best Buy and Nordstroms and Microsoft have been solid performers you can begin to see the groundwork for a cause and effect relationship between jobs and housing prices.
    The question is how much is that effect?
    Have you thought of a chart that compares real estate sales to Washington State GDP?

    This is one andecotal data point, but a decent house in my neighborhood two miles from Microsoft will still set you back $450-700K, while the median income in the same area is still under $100K. You do the math.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  21. D I

    I’ve been a long time reader of this site – thanks Tim and everyone on here. Getting ready to sell a house in the Northgate area (near NW hospital). Anyway, I’ve been kicking around the idea to use a flat-fee mls service. Does anyone have any recommendations/referrals? Thanks.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  22. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: D I @ 24 – Try searching for cancelled and expired listings for such limited service companies, particularly cancelled listings. Generally full service firms do better in that regard, but I haven’t done that comparison myself for almost two years:

    http://blog.seattlepi.com/realestate/2010/03/27/real-estate-firms-full-service-vs-limited-service-snapshot-4/

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  23. David Losh

    RE: D I @ 24

    You should ask Chuck Cady, the best Real Estate agent in Seattle for an opinion.

    There was a discount listing agent in that area, but it looks like the he has formed a full service Brokerage, so you’re stuck with the regulars.

    Hey! Why not 500 Realty, at 500 Realty.net?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  24. David Losh

    RE: Scotsman @ 21

    uh oh, septic, now you’ll need to explain your pooping habits to the government.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  25. whatsmyname

    By redmondjp @ 23:
    “This is one andecotal data point, but a decent house in my neighborhood two miles from Microsoft will still set you back $450-700K, while the median income in the same area is still under $100K. You do the math.”

    But what is the median income of the people now buying into that neighborhood? Change happens.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  26. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: whatsmyname @ 28 – Not to mention property isn’t only bought with income. You would need to also look at net worth.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  27. whatsmyname

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 29
    Very true.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  28. Tatiana Kalashnikov

    This is somewhat interesting regarding what Wells Fargo is doing re real estate loans. The person who is posting seems a bit naive, but anyway, for what it’s worth on a quiet weekend you are welcome to read on. Tatiana.

    http://www.sacramentorealestatevoice.com/breaking-sacramento-real-estate-news/

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  29. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: Tatiana Kalashnikov @ 31 – Those might be VA loans. It’s relatively easy to refinance those things with some banks, but we’ve had at least one client scammed by an loan originator charging high fees to do that service.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  30. Kary L. Krismer

    This article fits with a prior discussion here about how the Democrats and Republicans are both twisting their claims to appeal to their core groups of extremist partisans.

    http://news.bostonherald.com/news/us_politics/view/20120415exaggerations_abound_on_both_sides_of_buffett_rule_debate_experts_say/srvc=home&position=recent

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  31. Blurtman

    Obama versus Bush. When comparing employment numbers, it is painful to say that Obama fails.

    The telling comparison is the labor participation rate. Recall that it measures the labor force as defined as potential workers aged 16-65. So those retiring at 65 are never counted, and so from that perspective, the wave of retiring boomers does not impact the number. If anything, if the massive wave of retiring boomers exceeds the entry of new potential workers into the labor force, the boomer retirement wave should increase the labor force participation rate.

    And so the labor force participation rate under Obama is consistently inferior to that of Bush. I suppose unemployed mortgage brokers explains the difference.

    http://reflectionsofarationalrepublican.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/bush-vs-obama-labor-force-participation-rate-january-2012-data.jpg

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  32. David Losh

    RE: Blurtman @ 34

    Of course Bush wins hands down. Bush ramped up the military spending which creates jobs, and take workers out of the domestic work force, and posts them over seas, that doubles the job potential. Bush also ramped up construction, and banking service in an unbridled attempt to stimulate the economy. Lastly the financial markets took advatage of the over stimulus to create massive cash reserves.

    Bush’s economy was a brilliant move of all private business financial stimulus. Today we are seeing the problem with that, and the need for sever government regulation, and over sight.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  33. Kary L. Krismer

    Listening to Geithner it seems he should have “LIAR” tattooed on his forehead. Now I know why they made the Fed a non-cabinet department. Having the head of the Treasury support political positions just seems wrong.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  34. Blurtman

    RE: David Losh @ 35 – OK. Bush robbed the bank. But he found a bank to rob. That is what US capitalism is all about, whether it is natural resources, or financial resources. So what bank is Obama robbing? Not to rob is a disastrous solution.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  35. Ira Sacharoff

    By D I @ 24:

    I’ve been a long time reader of this site – thanks Tim and everyone on here. Getting ready to sell a house in the Northgate area (near NW hospital). Anyway, I’ve been kicking around the idea to use a flat-fee mls service. Does anyone have any recommendations/referrals? Thanks.

    It doesn’t get cheaper than mysecretagent.com

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  36. Blurtman

    I’ll say it again, the poor are the unwitting defenders of the value of the US dollar.

    And what does it take to become a bank to access the Fed free money machine? Why are only a few chosen given access to the near zero interest rate money?

    Fix income inequality with $10 million loans for everyone!

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/fix-income-inequality-with-10-million-loans-for-everyone/2012/04/13/gIQATUQAFT_story.html

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  37. David Losh

    RE: Blurtman @ 37

    Obama doesn’t have a bank to rob, and that is a problem. The wealth migration has done possibly an insurmountable amount of damage to the economy.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  38. David Losh

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 38

    The problem with my secret agent is that they are very secret. MLS 4 Owner has a following. Every 1% of market interest has value.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  39. Blurtman

    RE: David Losh @ 40 – What will President Romney do, then?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  40. David Losh

    RE: Blurtman @ 42

    The Republicans can ramp up all the tried and true economic strategies, like having cheaper oil, allowing larger corporate structures, cutting social programs, and forcing cheaper labor into the market place. He can go to war with Iran.

    There is a long list of things that can be done that are contrary to the Democrats agenda.

    It’s another kick the can down the road strategy, the same as the Democrats have the social spending strategy.

    The end result will be revolt, in both cases. You, and I know that, but there are many true believers that will just hope for a change.

    What I would like to see is for Obama to get re-elected, and take the gloves off.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  41. Natalia Orinko

    “What I would like to see is for Obama to get re-elected, and take the gloves off.”

    Even if he wins, as long as there is a Republican controlled congress his hands are tied. The US method of government is so curious. In Europe, the head of the party in power is also the head of goverment. But here, you can (and often do, like now) have a spit goverment. I am so amazed to see how much doesn’t get accomplished. Ever! And the whole Senate thing just baffles me. How can the state of North Dakota and California each have two senators?? This gives an inordinate amount of power to the smallest states. But I’m learning.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  42. Natalia Orinko

    And one more thing. The concept of the filibuster astounds me. So even when a part has 51 senators, it really means nothing! And both sides seem to honor it, and have for a long time. can you explain it?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  43. pfft

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 33:

    This article fits with a prior discussion here about how the Democrats and Republicans are both twisting their claims to appeal to their core groups of extremist partisans.

    http://news.bostonherald.com/news/us_politics/view/20120415exaggerations_abound_on_both_sides_of_buffett_rule_debate_experts_say/srvc=home&position=recent

    too bad he’s wrong about what democrats are saying.

    1. 3. “It’s a comment similar to one made decades ago by Republican icon Ronald Reagan when he was president”

    so right off the bat he basically debunks his entire two page opinion piece. NICE WORK!
    at least we know that the extremists are Republicans.

    2. no democrat has said it will solve our deficit so that is straw man.

    3. you get tax credit for state taxes so this passage is just wrong.

    According to the nonpartisan Tax Foundation, those Americans reporting income between $15,000 and $75,000 in 2009 paid anywhere from 1 percent to 7 percent of their income in federal taxes. It would suggest that Romney paid more than twice the rate of what low- and middle-income Americans paid as their effective tax rate.

    4. then there is just this bizarre nonsense.

    Most disturbing to tax experts, however, is that the Buffett rule – which would raise $47 billion over 10 years – seems just poor tax policy.

    “This is not the way to deal with the tax problem; this isn’t the way to raise revenue,” Williams said.

    huh?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  44. pfft

    By Blurtman @ 34:

    Obama versus Bush. When comparing employment numbers, it is painful to say that Obama fails.

    The telling comparison is the labor participation rate. Recall that it measures the labor force as defined as potential workers aged 16-65.

    really? you’re still doing this? par for the course at SB.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  45. ChrisM

    RE: Natalia Orinko @ 45 – Back when the country was first founded, there was a significant split between “state-based” vs. “nation-based” view. This was personified in Jefferson (states) vs. Hamilton (federal).

    The idea was there would attempt to be a balance between the people (house of reps) vs. the republic (senate). Ironically, it is unclear how the Supreme Court was to be viewed, until they carved out a position for themselves relatively late in the game.

    Nowadays, of course, state-based view is completely lost, and the federal govt trumps states at virtually all levels. Of course, Jefferson predicted this outcome.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  46. pfft

    By ChrisM @ 48:

    RE: Natalia Orinko @ 45 – Back when the country was first founded, there was a significant split between “state-based” vs. “nation-based” view. This was personified in Jefferson (states) vs. Hamilton (federal).

    The idea was there would attempt to be a balance between the people (house of reps) vs. the republic (senate). Ironically, it is unclear how the Supreme Court was to be viewed, until they carved out a position for themselves relatively late in the game.

    Nowadays, of course, state-based view is completely lost, and the federal govt trumps states at virtually all levels. Of course, Jefferson predicted this outcome.

    the Feds have always trumped the states. that’s been true since forever. the Constitution gave the Feds broad powers. its’ just that a certain segment has been saying states rights when what they really mean is they disagree with what has been Constitutionally passed.

    if states’ rights was so great we would still have the Articles of Confederation. we don’t.

    all of that has nothing to do with the filibuster.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  47. Blurtman

    RE: pfft @ 47 – The facts are what they are.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  48. yukon dave

    RE: Natalia Orinko @ 45
    I agree that the fillibuster makes no sense in the way it is practiced. If you look up the story of Mr. Smith goes to Washington, he had to read the phone book to stall for time until you almost passed out. That should be the same today.

    I am disappointed with our President. President Reagan was elected with an economy that had a higher unemployment rate, higher inflation and higher interest rates while having to get it past a Democratically controlled Senate and House of Representatives (Congress). The Senate had 58 democrats and the House had 277 Democrats or 63% yet President Reagan went to the people and proposed the things he campaigned on.

    Unlike President Obama who had a solid majority in both houses of Congress, President Reagan went to the people on TV and shamed them into doing the right things. In the end the US came out of the economic crash and turned the country around. That is what leadership is about.

    The Democratic campaign was one based on changes the American people demanded and voted for. President Obama did not hold open hearings on Healthcare. When campaigning for healthcare reform, Obama had promised repeatedly throughout his run for the presidency that he would “have the negotiations televised on C-SPAN so the people can see who is making arguments on behalf of their constituents, and who is making arguments on behalf of the drug companies or the insurance companies.” He stated that by televising all healthcare discussions on C-SPAN that it would “shame members of congress” into doing the right thing. Twenty seven secret meetings later, it’s apparent who the President and the Democrats work for.
    Compare campaign promises from candidate Barack Obama to what President Obama is did.

    “Let me say it as simply as I can: transparency and the rule of law will be the touchstones of this presidency”

    “You’ll get the same kind of coverage that members of Congress give themselves.”

    “If you don’t have health insurance, then what we’re going to do is to provide you the option of buying into the same kind of federal pool that both Senator McCain and I enjoy as federal employees, which will give you high-quality care, choice of doctors, at lower costs, because so many people are part of this insured group.”

    “The first step to reclaiming America’s standing in the world has to be closing this facility. As president, Barack Obama will close the detention facility at Guantanamo.”

    “And I have seen no information that contradicts the notion that we can bring our troops out safely at a pace of one to two brigades a month, and, again, that pace translates into having our combat troops out in 16 months’ time.”
    Instead he followed the Bush timetable and moving troops out of Iraq and sending them to Afghanistan is not what we had in mind.

    “My presidency will mark a new chapter in America’s leadership on climate change.”
    Again it did not even go to vote.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  49. Kary L. Krismer

    By Natalia Orinko @ 45:

    And one more thing. The concept of the filibuster astounds me. So even when a part has 51 senators, it really means nothing! And both sides seem to honor it, and have for a long time. can you explain it?

    It recognizes the fact that politicians are human beings subject to stupid impulses, and restrains that. Thus, for example, a few years ago a bill to tax certain people at 95% passed the House, because those people had been politically vilified by the President repeatedly. That type of thing would be very unlikely to pass the Senate.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

Leave a Reply

Do you want a nifty avatar picture next to your name, instead of a photograph of Tim's dog? Just sign up with Gravatar, and make sure to use the same email address in the form below. It's that easy!

Please read the rules before posting a comment.

You have 15 comments remaining on this post.

Archives