By request from the comments on Friday’s post, here’s a look at just the Seattle area’s employment situation.
First up, year-over-year job growth, broken down into a few relevant sectors:
After getting hammered harder than every other industry during the housing bust, construction employment is showing the biggest gains in 2012. Every sector we track is growing at a decent rate.
Here’s a look at the overall Seattle area unemployment rate compared to the national rate:
The Seattle area is doing much better than Washington State or the nation as a whole, with June coming in at 8.2% for the US, 8.3% for Washington, and just 7.2% for the Seattle area.
Overall things are better for Seattle on the jobs front. We’re still not back to “normal” levels, but we’re getting there a lot more quickly than many other regions.
- Seattle Unemployment: Washington State Employment Security Department
- Washington & US Unemployment: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Seasonally adjusted series used for all data sets.
00
After They Lose Their Unemployment Benefits
They are no longer counted as unemployed. If they give up looking for work for 6 months they are no longer counted as unemployed.
I see Carpinitos Fruit Stand in Kent is hiring farm workers [eastern Wash?]….perhaps the growing army of uncounted unemployed can find work there, even if it means living in your car? Beats Tent City.
See the Total Labor Force graph documenting a “flat total labor force” in the Bellevue/Seattle/Everett area the last 3 years per BLS:
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LAUMT53426606?data_tool=XGtable
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Hi Tim,
Can you post a link to that stats you’re using? BLS.gov (according to Google anyway) is showing a non-seasonally adjusted UE rate of 6.4% for Seattle in May. I’m guessing your data is seasonally adjusted, hence the smoothness.
http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=z1ebjpgk2654c1_&met_y=unemployment_rate&idim=city:PA530050&fdim_y=seasonality:U&dl=en&hl=en&q=city+of+seattle+unemployment+rate
edit: nm, I see you’re using MSA, not just city
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RE: Anthony @ 2 – Sources appended to the post.
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Sure explains all of the “Hiring” signs I see around Seattle stores. Even saw a late night TV ad for a store that included a “We are Hiring” segment at the end of the commercial.
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It’s normal for Seattle to run a lower unemployment rate than the rest of the state. It’s a job center. The fact is, WA is slightly higher than the national average. There is absolutely nothing special about Seattle as far as jobs go other than it being the main job center in the state of WA. As far as it being special nationally, it’s just not there.
However, Seattle does have an abundance of rain, which does qualify it as being different from many other cities with similar high unemployment rates.
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RE: softwarengineer @ 1 –
One of the problems whenever people talk about the unemployment rate is the total misunderstanding that people have about the terms used by government agencies. Your post is an excellent illustration of this problem.
From the BLS website:
Who is counted as unemployed?
Persons are classified as unemployed if they do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks, and are currently available for work.
Notice how there is no mention of receiving unemployment benefits or your six month time frame. All people who do not have a job and have looked for one in the past 4 weeks are counted as unemployed. The only time they are not counted is when they stop looking or give up looking for a job.
What point exactly are you trying to make with the flat labor force statement? Did you bother to look up who is included in the labor force? Since you got the facts about who is counted as unemployed incorrect, I would guess not.
No wonder companies hire foreign software engineers.
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But what are “normal” levels of (U-3) unemployment? I did a quick average of the last 41 years (1970-2011; source can be found here: http://www.bls.gov/cps/prev_yrs.htm/) and “normal” is 6.33 percent. In Seattle proper that is not too far off. Other parts of the country such as the mid and mountain west are already well below that. I think that parts of the 1990′s and 2000′s were a bit of a mirage in that we thought 4 percent unemployment was the “new normal” when in fact it was anything but “normal”.
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RE: Jason @ 6 -
Your Giveups Aren’t in the U3 (Mainstream) Unemployment Count After Their Benefits Run Out
“…•If you receive a call from the BLS and they determine that you are unemployed and that you have not looked for work in the past four weeks, you are considered unemployed for the U4 unemployment rate, not the U3 Official Unemployment Rate. You are considered a “discouraged worker.” It doesn’t matter if you have exhausted benefits.
•If you receive a call from the BLS and they determine that you are unemployed and that you have not looked for work in the the past 12 months, but you want to work, you are considered “marginally attached to the labor force.” You are considered unemployed for the U5 unemployment rate. It doesn’t matter if you have exhausted benefits.
Conclusion: As long as you are not working, but still looking for work in some capacity, you are counted as unemployed. It doesn’t matter if you have exhausted unemployment benefits, you will still be counted as unemployed. The difference is what category of unemployed you will be considered; U3 (Official Unemployment Rate), U4, or U5….”
http://www.examiner.com/article/am-i-still-counted-as-unemployed-if-i-stop-receiving-unemployment-benefits-yes-and-here-s-why
So I agree with you that the 6 month rule [BTW, it appeared in an AP news article and yes, it was partial misinformation and I corrected my wiley ways...LOL]
Albeit, your attack on my blog makes no sense, since practically no one uses U4 or U5 BLS data. Thanks for the question though, I hope this clears up the convoluted way we bury “Mass Armies of unemployment” and sweep it under the rug.
I hope you enjoy using the “fruits of your foreign IT efforts”….laughing stock VISTA and slow-mo Windows 7 O/Ss….I still use XP BTW, much faster, before it got destroyed with insourced tech labor.
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RE: Jason @ 6 –
My Total Labor Force Graph Isn’t a Point
Its a mathematical graph of reality and BTW, matches Tim’s data, but goes back an extra year and a half from Tim’s data. We’re stuck at about a 1.7 million workforce the last three years in the Seattle/Bellevue/Everett area, albeit the regression analysis of the BLS graph shows a slight degradation [worsening] I omitted, to add a cheery cherry to this horrifying concern area; with continual expanding unnecessary insourced labor added in, with concurrent sand-bagging of our domestic tech workforce in your “its OK” U4 and U5 smoke and mirrors.
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In May and June, the labor force increases substantially from April to May along with the newly unemployed college graduates that do not qualify for claims. They are counted towards the unemployment rate without qualifying for unemployment insurance, if they are unable to find work .
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A slight majority of the unemployed do not collect unemployment benefits.
5.97 mil persons collecting unemployment insurance through all programs including extended programs(as of July 14th)
12.8 mil unemployed(data collection through the 14th for July payrolls)
5.97 mil/12.8 mil = 46.7% on unemployment insurance.
100%-46.7% = 53.3% unemployed and not collecting unemployment insurance.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm/
http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm
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Wyoming currently has a 5.4% unemployment rate. Compared to that, Seattle is really a bassackwards job center. There is nothing special about Seattle proper other than it rains a lot, and the majority of people are grossly overweight and out of shape.
As far as unemployment getting back to normal, you can cherry pick your areas all day, but the pavement stops at the percentage of the working age population who are employed.
Let’s face it, other than the $trillions in funny money that have evaporated into thin air, this country has been in a depression for the last five years and counting. Let’s hope we can get another $1.5 trillion from China, Benanke, and the Tea Party in order to get another year out of this bloated pig before it all comes crashing down.
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