Posted by: The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

12 responses to “Reporting Roundup: Market Momentum Edition”

  1. Kim

    One guess on the Thurston market slow-down is the election. Many people who live in Thurston County work for the state government, so there may have been a slow-down in the market while the state’s leadership was being decided. (Job impacts and all.)

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  2. softwarengineer

    Hey Tim, I Hope Your Fever is Gone and You’re Feeling Better

    You did a good job of analyzing the allegations for evidence BTW.

    I bought in 1999 and King County was giving up on real estate [interest rates were just down to 6.75% then, from like 10% in the earlier 90s]….they built my HOA in 1991 and originally offerred them up as rentals with a lease to possibly buy later….the middle class couldn’t hardly buy a house in King County the 90s.

    So if inventory was low, so were qualified buyers [driving down inventory?].

    Good job Tim!

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  3. David Losh

    Glenn Kelman sent me an e-mail this morning predicting a great Real Estate year to come.

    Redfin is on a rampage, growing like crazy.

    Why don’t you ever quote Glenn Kelman in these posts?

    He seems to be on the band wagon.

    He signed off with a cheery greeting!

    Happy holidays and thanks for your support!
    Glenn

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  4. Feedback

    Thanks, Tim! Always glad to hear that it’s a good time to buy a home now that our bubble has thoroughly burst and deflated. Rents are skyrocketing and rates are at historic lows, making homebuying the most affordable it has been in years. I’m glad to see some positive attitudes about homeownership, a cornerstone of the American dream.

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  5. Kary L. Krismer

    I couldn’t get past the first sentence in the Times’ article:

    On the last day of November 2011, 158 houses were listed for sale in Bellevue east of Interstate 405.

    What an amateur! Doesn’t he know the most relevant data is north of I-90? ;-) :-D

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  6. ray pepper

    RE: David Losh @ 3 – yes, and they are hiring 200 NEW Agents! I think that was in the email. However, his analysis of RedFin doing well I would find very suspect. Compared to the last 5 years this is probably so but as for REAL earnings that would EVER justify IPO, I think not….They MUST expand their revenue streams and by this I don’t mean opening more offices. I suspect a merger in the coming years(s).

    As Z remains in the gutter at 26.00 pps and a PE of 150+ http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=Z and companies like Zipr http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ZIPR&ql=0 hanging on by a fine thread success ahead in the real estate industry will be through entirely different companies and models..

    Bank it! …………Until then (like my daughters soccer team the Diamonds) ..Diamonds and Red Fin Rock but both always need money!

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  7. ChrisM

    RE: ray pepper @ 6 – Holy cow, I thought that P/E 150 was a typo!

    Class action lawsuit against Z:
    http://zlkdocs.com/Z-Info-Request-Form-509

    Levi & Korsinsky announces that a class action lawsuit has been commenced in the USDC for the Western District of Washington on behalf of investors who acquired Zillow, Inc. (“Zillow” or “the Company”) (Nasdaq: Z) stock between February 15, 2012 and November 6, 2012.

    The complaint alleges that defendants concealed the difficulties Zillow was having signing up new real estate agents as subscribers and the churn it was experiencing in existing subscribers. As a result, Zillow’s stock traded at artificially inflated prices during which time Company insiders sold more than 3 million shares of their own Zillow stock for nearly $115 million. The Company then raised $156 million through a follow-on offering in September 2012 just thirty days after assuring investors that the filing of a Form S-3 Registration Statement was not intended for a follow-on offering. Then on November 5, 2012, Zillow issued a press release announcing its third quarter 2012 financial results and reducing its fourth quarter and full year 2012 revenue guidance that fell below analysts’ estimates. Furthermore, Zillow announced that it had lost a large display advertiser, Foreclosure.com, and therefore defendants expected weakness in the Company’s display advertising business. These disclosures caused Zillow stock to fall $6.22 per share to close at $28.15 per share on November 6, 2012. If you suffered a loss in Zillow you have until January 28, 2013 to request that the Court appoint you as lead plaintiff. Your ability to share in any recovery doesn’t require that you serve as a lead plaintiff.

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  8. ray pepper

    RE: ChrisM @ 7 – yes poor Zillow doomed the day it hit the market..Had a nice “artificial” ride for awhile but Z is not alone in its slow death spiral…Look at Trulia: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TRLA ………

    Definitely not a way to play any sort of real estate rebound…Gonna play in this space? Buy the Lenders! BAC is on a tear! http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=BAC+Interactive#symbol=bac;range=6m;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

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  9. Ira Sacharoff

    By Feedback @ 4:

    Thanks, Tim! Always glad to hear that it’s a good time to buy a home now that our bubble has thoroughly burst and deflated. Rents are skyrocketing and rates are at historic lows, making homebuying the most affordable it has been in years. I’m glad to see some positive attitudes about homeownership, a cornerstone of the American dream.

    Betting pool on whether Feedback is in the real estate industry? My money says yes.

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  10. David Losh

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 9

    My money is that they are kidding.

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  11. Seattle Bubble • Non-Distressed Median Up Less Than 5% From 2011

    [...] A 4.9% increase is decent, but obviously nowhere near the nearly 20% increase in the raw median that made headlines last week. [...]

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