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December Stats Preview: Foreclosure Surge Edition

Posted on January 3, 2013January 3, 2013 by The Tim

With the last month of 2012 now behind us, let’s have a look at our stats preview. Most of the charts below are based on broad county-wide data that is available through a simple search of King County and Snohomish County public records. If you have additional stats you’d like to see in the preview, drop a line in the comments and I’ll see what I can do.

First up, here’s the summary snapshot of all the data as far back as my historical information goes, with the latest, high, and low values highlighted for each series:

King & Snhomish County Stats Preview

Summary: Foreclosures shot up, sales actually increased (quite odd for this time of year), and inventory hit another new low point. Hit the jump for the full suite of our usual monthly charts.

Next, let’s look at total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with King County:

King County Warranty Deeds

Salse in King County rose 15% from November to December, opposite of what we would expect for this time of year.

Here’s a look at Snohomish County Deeds, but keep in mind that Snohomish County files Warranty Deeds (regular sales) and Trustee Deeds (bank foreclosure repossessions) together under the category of “Deeds (except QCDS),” so this chart is not as good a measure of plain vanilla sales as the Warranty Deed only data we have in King County.

Snohomish County Deeds

Deeds in Snohomish also increased 15% month-over-month.

Next, here’s Notices of Trustee Sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:

King County Notices of Trustee Sale

Snohomish County Notices of Trustee Sale

Relatively large month to month increases in both counties. Also odd for this time of year. Perhaps there is some sort of regulatory change that takes effect in January that might cause banks to push through foreclosures before the end of the year. It might have even been something to do with the “fiscal cliff” nonsense.

Here’s another measure of foreclosures for King County, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”

King County Trustee Deeds

Trustee deeds shot way up, blowing away the previous high point of 2012.

Lastly, here’s an update of the inventory charts, updated with the inventory data from the NWMLS.

King County SFH Active Listings

Snohomish County SFH Active Listings

As we have been predicting, inventory keeps hitting new lows. Hopefully we’ll see an increase this month.

Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.

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Poll: King County SFH inventory will ____ between now and the end of January.
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NWMLS: 2012 Ends on a Sour Note for Buyers

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