Let’s have another look at our monthly sales histogram.
After flattening out somewhat between November and December the sales distribution curve became much steeper in January as sales above $300,000 fell off dramatically. In December the mode (i.e. the bucket with the most sales) for non-distressed sales was at $350,000 to $400,000, but in January the mode fell all the way down to the $250,000 to $300,000 bucket.
Based on what I’ve been seeing in the market since the start of the year, I still expect the mode to shift toward the expensive ranges as we head into spring.
To generate the chart below, I took all the sales data for single-family homes sold in King, Snohomish, and Pierce Counties from the beginning of 2010 through the end of January. Since my data download puts late-reported sales into the month that the sale actually took place rather than in the month they were reported, there is a slight difference in the number of sales I’m counting vs. what the NWMLS reports each month.
By default the chart shows just King County sales in January. Use the controls below to scroll through different months, or to see what the mix looks like for Snohomish or Pierce County. I’ve also added color-coding and controls to separate out “non-distressed” sales from the sales of bank-owned homes and short sales.
As you explore the data for yourself I’d love to hear what stands out to you. Let me know in the comments!
+10
Thanks, Tim. I always love your data.
Do you think the data are becoming more noisy, perhaps portending a trend shift?
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I love the tableau charts.
Wow, look at those November sales numbers. Could that have been the spike that robbed inventory, and possibly future sales?
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It’s possible uncertainty over the extension of the “Bush tax cuts” affected more sales in the upper price ranges.
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@David Losh,
Good find. The 11/12 data really is the outlier and could ‘splain the current short term trend.
Selling homes is good for reelection of Dear Leader.
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RE: David Losh @ 2 – Tim may need to check his data. November sales were actually about 150 below October, but from the chart it sure doesn’t look that way.
But inventory has been a problem much longer than since November.
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Here’s the “not guaranteed” data from the NWMLS for Jan-Dec 2012, King County, SFR:
1095 Jan
1230
1642
1768
2056
2117
2120
2162
1798
1981 Oct
1828 Nov
1741 Dec
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RE: Eleua @ 4 –
There was another report today that bulder confidence is down: http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-builder-confidence-20130219,0,856664.story
That doesn’t sound good for the new Spring Selling Season.
I also wondered about the election hype on housing, and maybe some vague promise Obama would fix the housing market.
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RE: Eleua @ 4 – @David Losh,
“Good find. The 11/12 data really is the outlier and could ‘splain the current short term trend.”
Yeah good find guys, you clicked Tims chart three times and saw November was huge, amazing!… Then you deduced that the anomaly in November explains the multiyear trend of reducing housing inventory…… You guys are going to win a nobel prize…. i feel like I’m part of something very special here.
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RE: Corndogs @ 8 –
It’s always flattering to have a stalker.
It’s the sales activity, not the inventory.
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RE: David Losh @7 –
David, you need to get past the headline.
The decline is for month to month from 47 to 46.
The year to year number is an increase from 28 to 46.
Among the negative factors mentioned are rising prices for material, labor, and lots. You might not want to write off the selling season just yet.
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Nice post Tim… lot to ponder there…
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RE: Corndogs @ 8 –
WOW. Sorry to compliment a fellow poster on bringing a pertinent point to the conversation. Glad you called me out on that, and I apologize for interrupting your Nobel Prize quality research you are bringing to the discussion.
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RE: Eleua @ 12
“WOW. Sorry to compliment a fellow poster on bringing a pertinent point”
Nothing Losh says is pertinent. If you go back to Tims post in December, Tim calls out a few of the sales numbers in his post and they are much less than what is on the chart today… SO, obviously, his numbers in his chart got f’ed up somehow between then and now…
http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2012/12/20/sales-of-expensive-non-distressed-homes-surging/
Now there are some pertinent posts on this thread. This post is pertinent because it’s enlightening you with some truth….. as do the posts from ‘whatsmyname’ and Krismer… None of these posts would be necessary, however, if David Losh didn’t pop on here and say stupid sh!t…. The majority of all posts on Seattle bubble fall into two categories…
Losh saying something stupid…..
Losh getting criticized for being stupid…
When you chime in to encourage him, because you don’t know any better… than you’re going to get some shrapnel…
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By David Losh @ 9:
Did you not figure out yet that data you think is so important is wrong? I’m surprised Tim hasn’t chimed in here yet about the November chart, but seemingly it shows over 3,500 sales in November. At that amount it’s likely somehow the data was entered twice for that month, or some other error. But even after that problem was pointed out you’re still trying to claim it’s somehow important.
Let’s wait to see what Tim says about the November data.
And again I would point out that the inventory problem was a problem before November. Your theory that November sales caused the decline is written as if you haven’t been reading this site for months and months.
http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2012/11/05/nwmls-inventory-hit-a-record-low-in-october/
Don’t just blindly accept data.
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 14 – RE: Corndogs @ 13 –
It’s sales activity that has nothing to do with inventory. The reason for sales activity has to do with what people are paying for crap.
There you go, get nostalgic about Ivan again.
The decline in inventory, and historically low interest rates are pushing up prices. People are still buying in a panic.
Corndog is claiming prices are going up, up, up, and that’s just not a good thing. Real Estate sales people are all excited because they have a ready willing and able buyer pool.
My point has been consistent that there are pockets of value in any market place, but the majority of sales will be a mistake for the buyer.
The sales activity is what’s telling here, and the season the activity took place.
What would be the motivation just to plow through a period of low inventory? Why were people so intent on buying? Is it that prices are going up, up, up, and the buyer will be priced out forever?
It’s sales activity, that’s what the post is about, the months it happened? Come on.
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By David Losh @ 2:
By David Losh @ 15:
Make up your mind.
In any case, the sales were not that high in November, and that’s something you should have known rather than blindly accepting the data in the chart.
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By David Losh @ 15:
It’s a good thing if you’re a seller and a bad thing if you’re a buyer. Otherwise it really isn’t that important.
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RE: whatsmyname @ 10 –
It looks like big builders may not be adding to this period of low inventory. It kind of looks like this may be the year to clear out more of that “distressed” inventory.
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 17 –
It’s very important to the over all economic recovery. Focussing solely on Real Estate sales is very short-sighted. If people are paying way too much for properties that will become a mill stone, kind of like what we have now, that is a further loss of middle class wealth.
People buying today who will be stuck with that decision for a decade will further erode the myth of building wealth by buying a home.
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 16 –
The fact is the momentum of the buyer pool pushed it’s way into the winter. Why?
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RE: David Losh @ 19 – You read an article showing a very slight change of builder sentiment, and think it’s important. You view a very slight change in prices, and think it’s disaster.
I’m sorry, but things are not moving as fast as you think they are, and the slight changes are not that important.
But in any case, you’re really backtracking the point I’ve been trying to make–that the November sales data is likely not what you think it is.
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By David Losh @ 20:
Because the low inventory levels meant they couldn’t find properties.
http://seattlebubble.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/KingCoSFHInventory2013-01-600×408.png
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Just an odd observation.
Only 16 transactions between $800k and $850k in all of King County…and one of them was mine. Only 67 transactions between $500k and $550k…and one of them was mine.
Considering how many agents there are in King County (I think between 10,000 and 12,000), I find that a bit scary, and at the same time I feel very blessed.
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 22 – RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 21 –
Why would you buy into a market place of low inventory, and rising prices? Why? What would be the motivation?
We just went through a period of rising prices in 2007, and that didn’t turn out well. This time however banks are better positioned to take losses.
Eleua brought up the point about the election which I find to be a better topic of discussion than what month the sales happened in.
Did Obama make promises about the housing market? I don’t really recall, but it’s an interesting idea.
Big builders are an indicator of our current market place, and in this time of low inventory, and rising prices I think it’s interesting they are pulling back in one of the hottest market we have seen.
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Tim,
For the love of all that is holy can you do something about the Krismer/Losh/Douchedog flamewars. It is way beyond tiring. How about that ignore feature somebody asked for a long time ago.
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RE: David Losh @ 24 –
I’ve been watching a piece of land that Camwest(Toll) bought several years ago and sat on when the market turned. They are now breaking ground on 58 homes. They waited it out until now. In Kirkland I am seeing a few spec builders jumping in on some pretty risky plays.
I don’t see builders “pulling back” in the single family home markets. Are you primarily talking about the in-City high rises?
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RE: ARDELL @ 26 –
Actually I’m talking about a broader market than just here around Seattle. I think we are a bright spot in the country.
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By David Losh @ 24:
Relatively low interest rates?
Having already waited for years?
Concern that we might have hit a bottom?
Moving to this area for a new job?
Pregnancy?
Having saved up money for a down payment?
Seriously, you can always find reasons to buy or not to buy. Typically people use a declining market as a reason not to buy, but you’re using a rising market as a reason not to buy. Just accept the fact that not everyone thinks like you do.
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RE: Marc @ 25 –
OK, once again my fault no one elses, sorry.
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By Marc @ 25:
Thank You Marc. It’s a delicate balance. Discussions and disagreements on Seattle Bubble are sometimes entertaining and enlightening. I’ve learned a lot from them. And censorship is a slippery slope…But yeah: When the conversations devolve into name calling and insults, it feels like a mighty fine blog is being hijacked.
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By David Losh @ 24:
You’re the one who brought up the month the sales happened in. I pointed out that data you noticed is likely wrong. Rather than just admit you might have not realized something, you’ve been scrambling to change the topic. If you want to change the topic, go to the open thread or the politics thread.
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RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 30 – RE: Marc @ 25 – I’m having a hard time seeing how this is a flame war. I have been a bit critical of Losh for not noticing what seemingly is a fairly obvious error in the data in Tim’s chart, but other than that I’ve just been responding to Losh.
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 32 –
I can’t speak for Marc, but I’m not specifically thinking of this thread, but of past history. And I probably don’t know the definition of “flame war”, but to me, instead of having a discussion and expressing one’s opinion, or showing the data, my definition of “flaming” includes calling people things like “moron” or “idiot.”
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RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 33 – And that has happened in the past. I admit that, and in Losh’s case it happens so often because he’s relentless. The thread in January is probably the best example. Ardell points out something that had legal risk, Jillayne finds a recent news story where that type of situation (right down to no mortgage) actually resulted in a lawsuit, but Losh still won’t let it drop. That thread went something like over 250 posts, so is it any wonder that a time or two I’ll tell Losh to STFU.
In contrast, this is how I handle a situation where I might have said something that was wrong.
http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2013/02/18/monday-open-thread-2013-02-18/comment-page-1/#comment-191434
It’s not through endless denial, backtracking and changing of topic.
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By Kary L. Krismer @ 34:
It’s a complete wonder to me. I don’t understand why anyone chooses to engage repeatedly with someone whose opinion they don’t respect.
To your credit, at least your willing to comment publicly. Same for Dave. I have no respect for those who choose to be toxic while hiding behind an anonymous avatar. I can’t say that applies to Corndog either as I think he’s provided enough info that someone could figure out who he is. Needless to say, I haven’t as I don’t care.
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Maybe the Million Dollar Homes Are Going for $100, Like This One
http://www.wjhg.com/home/headlines/94874304.html
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RE: Marc @ 25 – no no no!!! It NEVER gets tiring…Sometimes its knee-slapping fun. Without a doubt though the BEST on here is Corndogs..I’m drawn to his posts like a fat guy to a gym membership in January.
I like that Tim stays out of it…I’m sure hes laughing up a storm as well!
Let the children play because we ALL GOTTA HAVE TIME FOR DAT!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nh7UgAprdpM
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RE: David Losh @ 2 – RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 5 – Kary is right, when I updated the data I got some duplicate info in there for November. The chart has been updated to reflect correct November sales data.
Sorry about that!
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By Marc @ 35:
I don’t mind engaging him initially. What I mind is it dragging on and on and on. I really should figure out a better policy on disengagement, but it’s hard because he keeps changing the topic.
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RE: ray pepper @ 37 –
Ray,
You just like it when Seattle Bubble turns into the World Wrestling Federation.
In this corner, wearing the gold cape…Kary “The Killing Counselor” Krismer, and in this corner, wearing the plaid kilt, David ” The Loshinator” Losh.
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RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 40 – Disengagement will be very fast if Losh is wearing a kilt. ;-)
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By Marc @ 25:
THIS.
It totally discourages on topic posts when they get burried in a Realtor pissing match.
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NEW RULE:
Everyone gets up to 5 comments per post, then you’re done. Regular open threads have a limit of 15 and the long-running politics/economics/healthcare open threads have much higher limits.
Use your comments wisely.
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I’m done here then. Not being able to respond to a claim made by Ardell or Losh is unacceptable. That’s the reason I quit posting on RCG.
Bye everyone.
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 44 U maybe gone but we know your watchin! You will be back faster then I can make it to the crapper at The Bellagio buffet .
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 44 –
Bye
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RE: The Tim @ 43 – You are my hero!
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RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 44 –
One would think given you have had this problem before, with me, that maybe you would learn something from the experience. Stay. Learn. Practice the art of self control. :)
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Moderator, take a look at Patrick.net another real estate blog constantly evolving. There are sophisticated user controls available where, if you like, you can block seeing people you cannot stand retarded petulant infantile argumentable posts while not completely ruining the flavor or the learing experience of the topic/ discourse with other posters which now happens daily here between the ‘usual suspects’.
For example, frequent poster here Losh has shown up on Patnet recently so I just chose to not see/hear the noise. Click-Problem Solved-forever… So say, If Krismer ever showed up over there, one click and Poof, another problem solved, and so on.
A Great System. One Click and you’re Ancient History. Sort of like a drone for blogs….
THINK about it.
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By Kary L. Krismer @ 44:
You, Losh, and Cornholio can all duke it out at http://davidlosh.com/ where there are no comment restrictions, and as a bonus, a picture of The Loshman himself in his tulip beds.
I always thought you brought good information to the comment sections. I never understood why you have this infatuation with Losh. Anyway, adios.
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RE: The Tim @ 43 – Spring cleaning a little early this year? Always good to stay on top of the chores.
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RE: wreckingbull @ 50 – “You, Losh, and Cornholio can blah blah blah……” Dream on Wreckedbung…. It’ll be business as usual here, you and Pegasux will still need to keep your statements brief and think hard before you post….. or you’ll get ass-tasered by Corndog…
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Tim, please reconsider the 5-post limit. It would eliminate some of the longer discussions that are truly informative. And it really doesn’t solve the main problem. Comment threads will be short, and Corndog’s nastiness will form the same percentage of comment volume as before. But we will probably lose information. In the past, Ardell and Kary have had an argument, and moved on to explain the issues to other posters. That is less likely to happen.
What about temporary bans for name calling or other obvious nastiness? With possible permanent bans after too many infractions.
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Frugal with your posts.
No flames; topic goes less off.
Are you then more on?
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RE: Corndogs @ 52 – RE: enatailurker @ 53 –
I agree sort of. If we could somehow skim off the trash like corndogs without blocking out legitimate bloggers. I am not sure what the algorithm would be for that.
I learn the most by reading Ardell, losh, Kary, Ray Pepper, ira and the tim of course. Lately, they have been fueding a little much though, but that could be blamed on Corndogs for disturbing the peace. Maybe give us 10 comments?
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By whatsmyname @ 54:
You do a haiku
Over a stupid flame war
That is so awesome
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By Ira Sacharoff @ 56:
Haiku on haiku
The chain builds fast and quicker
I am out of posts
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RE: The Tim @ 43 – Wonder if the limit should be 5 direct comments per post. That is, for exanple, Kary can comment directly at David 5 times per post.
What would SB be without, or less of, Kary?
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RE: Marc @ 25 – The problem is, I don’t want to ignore either Kary or David. When they aren’t attacking each other, they sometimes have something worthwhile to say. It would be better if posts that contained personal attacks could be disemvowelled or alpha-faded or something.
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