Posted by: Timothy Ellis (The Tim)

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

20 responses to “NWMLS: Sales Slip, Inventory Increases, Prices Gain”

  1. Erik

    Next month all the people that didn’t buy last month will buy. This will drive down inventory and drive up prices. Hooray!

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  2. corndogs

    “Housing affordability will NEVER be better! Get in now before you’re priced out FOREVER! Gee, that sentiment sounds familiar…”

    It does sound familiar, Corndog told bubble bloggers they’d be priced out 2 years ago when prices hit bottom, and he was right…… although maybe not forever, certainly some people are priced out for the foreseeable future. Where is all that shadow inventory boys?

    If you thought you were going to live on Lake Washington, there’s been a change of plans. You’d better talk to Erik and get his condo while you can…. bring a paintbrush.

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  3. softwarengineer

    You Word Things Very Pragmatically Tim

    I’d add, whether you’re continuing to rent or purchasing a home soon; there’s a plethora of personal reasons to go either direction.

    The 20,000 government folks in the Seattle area getting furloughed next week aren’t in the market, that’s a given….I imagine they’ve hunkered down on all purchases this year [knowing of possible furloughs all along]. I can’t blame them.

    The Lewis-McChord area, south of Tacoma, is probably a good place to go home shopping now….

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  4. ChrisM

    It would be extremely interesting to see local mortgage application data to back up the assertion that the housing market is hot. From the press release itself:

    “In Kitsap we are seeing buyers who are in contract and did not or could not lock loans that are now not able to qualify for the house they want to buy,”

    I was under the impression that nationally, mortgage applications declined significantly. However, I don’t know if the local Seattle market is bucking that trend.

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  5. Erik

    RE: corndogs @ 2
    Buy before you get priced out of the market everybody! Hurry before it’s too late! Your next home will never cost less than it does today!

    I’ll cut whoever wants to buy my place a deal. I won’t be undersold!

    How does 2X fair market value sound? Time is running out! This investment in your future won’t be around much longer.

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  6. corndogs

    RE: softwarengineer @ 3
    “The Lewis-McChord area, south of Tacoma, is probably a good place to go home shopping now….”

    The fact that you think it is time to buy in Pierce County has Corndog very concerned for prices now.

    Corndog, also just lost two renters to home purchase in consecutive months in Pierce County, Corndog has not lost a renter to home purchase since 2005/6. Since these people can not possibly be successful in life, Corndog must assume that prices will crash now in the not too distant future. This is a major negative indicator. (thanks for nothing SWE!)


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  7. Nick

    If “affordability” means “payments” it is likely that they are correct. It is unlikely for rates to go lower in the foreseeable future. It is unlikely that prices will go substantially lower.

    We are coming out of a deflationary recession. Such economic events are very rare.

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  8. erik

    Do you see what I mean though? Generally housing sales increase in June. For some reason the number of sales decreased in June this year. My guess is that those sales will be added to July sales. This could decrease inventory and further drive up prices.

    Corndogs- Please consider using your name with an “s” as it reads on this site when you refer to yourself yourself in third person. You like using third person predicate, I get it. You sound like a Neanderthal. Corndog like rock. Corndog make fire.

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  9. Erin

    RE: Erik @ 5 – how many bedrooms does your condo have? How big is it?

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  10. whatsmyname

    “Most years see an increase in sales between May and June. ”
    Yeah, the last time you saw a decrease was 2003; and we know what happened after that!

    “Conveniently absent from today’s release are the facts that:……”
    Tim, that’s just inadvertent; like when you forget to mention that your green/ red indicators have been uniformly favoring sellers for the last two years, or if you miss a front page article in the Seattle times on the rents elevator (Going up).

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  11. Ron

    King County Home Prices:
    June 2013: $427,500
    May 2006: $429,950

    Considering the world just went through the worst financial crisis in modern history that wiped out more than a quarter of Americans collective net worth, I would say that residents of King County have fared pretty well….so far, but it ain’t over. Let’s see where we’re at when QE ends and interest rates return to normal levels.

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  12. Matthew

    Unforutunately Cornhole will be long gone from this site by the time the air is let out of this echo bubble.

    Just like Meshugy and all the other trolls of bubble past, once the market takes a turn for the worst the bubble deniers dissapear like a fart in the wind.

    The market is slowing, the top is near, and your time on SB is limited, Cornhole.

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  13. erik

    RE: Erin @ 9
    My condo has 2 bedrooms and it is 1054 square feet.

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  14. corndogs

    RE: Matthew @ 12 – “Unforutunately Cornhole will be long gone from this site by the time the air is let out of this echo bubble.”

    HAHA…Corndog is a bubble denier? Try again Maddy! Corndog understood the bubble in a way that you were unable to, he called the bottom precisely. You are angry now because you feel foolish, you missed your opportunity. Yes prices will come down a bit, there will be a bit of oscillation, but one thing is for sure, nothing good is coming your way, you’re out. You’re not holding out hope that you’re gonna get another chance are you? Jesus that’s sad…. Did you know Matthew is Jewish for ‘he who zigged when he should have zagged” Your parents took one look at you when you were born and could tell what your future would be. They nailed it. Hey, I heard rents were going up too…. good luck with that. It’s working out good for ole Corndog, I just raised the rent on all Democrats by 50 buck..

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  15. Ron

    RE: corndogs @ 14

    “It’s working out good for ole Corndog, I just raised the rent on all Democrats by 50 buck.”

    Cornhole – this statement proves what is already known – you are a dishonest person who lacks character but you are probably proud of that fact.

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  16. corndogs

    RE: Ron @ 15 – “Cornhole – this statement proves what is already known – you are a dishonest person who lacks character but you are probably proud of that fact.”

    Dishonest? Already known? Oh really Ronnie? How is Corndog dishonest? Corndog’s seen this many times before. My experience with people like you who are unsuccessful in life is you want to look at the successful guy and assume he had to shaft somebody in order to get where he is. People like you need to think that, because it makes you feel better to think that you are unsuccessful only because you have taken the moral high ground. The fact is you are unsuccessful because you don’t know how to be successful, that’s all. Calling people like you out when you say something stupid and wrong is a very moral thing to do in my opinion. In that regard, Corndog is a Saint.

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  17. Matthew

    Oh my dear Cornholio, you should have cashed out like I did on my Kirkland rental. Sold that badboy during the recent run up.

    You are going to be one of the bag holders. You didn’t think B-52 Ben had your interests in mind did you? No sorry, only the major headgefunds had insider info, that’s why they are dumping their properties left and right. Cornholio is going to be left singing Soprano on the deck of the titanic.

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  18. Doug

    I bought at the bottom of the market, then refinanced at a lower rate (3.375%) now with a decent amount of apparent equity, we’re well-poised for a number of plans, but I seem to have the paralysis of choice.

    With interest rates going up, it seems like the correct play, to me, is to save like nuts for the next 5-7 years to put down 10-20% on a second house, in order to rent out our first house at a profit. Our payment will be locked in at $1480 plus some slight increases for property tax, so even with a property manager, we should be able to turn a monthly profit of a couple hundred bucks a month.

    Is this the smart course of action, or should we upgrade our house now, using our equity (~$80,000) to put down 20% on a nicer house in a better location?

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  19. Erik

    RE: Doug @ 18
    Good question. Yeah, my guess is that you played things right so far.

    If I were you, I would start looking now in your spare time. If you find an awesome deal, you should put an offer in, refinance and buy it I think. Most likely you will need more housing inventory to find a great deal, which supports waiting til later.

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  20. corndogs

    RE: Matthew @ 17 – “Oh my dear Cornholio, you should have cashed out like I did on my Kirkland rental.”

    So you had ONE rental and you sold it and you think you’re a mogul?. Corndog paid mostly cash for his rentals years ago. If you actually had any money to worry about, you’d realize that the key is to stay diversified. Corndog has substantial income without working. What do you have Maddy? All I get from your post is that you are a worker bee. What are you going to invest your paltry 20K profit in? Renewable energy? Unless you think the world is coming to an end and there will be no one to rent then Corndog is sitting where you want to be. No changes in the market (real estate or financial) has made any significant impact on Corndogs world. Rentals are a long term hold, all that matters is consistently collecting the dough.

    Regarding rental property pricing. My properties are right in line where they should be based on incomes as I’m sure yours was when you sold it, no one paid you top dollar at this point so your ‘recent runup’ certainly didn’t amount to much cash in your pocket did it? Anyone who buys a rental and treats it as a flip, doesn’t have a clue what they are doing. They are just a person that was scared and jumped ship wasting their money and time.

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