Posted by: Timothy Ellis (The Tim)

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

11 responses to “July Reporting Roundup: “Cyclone of Sales” Edition”

  1. Erik

    Welcome friends! I have 5 whole new comments this round, so here we go…

    What is the definition of a sellers market and buyers market for king county real estate if I wanted to quantify it? Can we define it in terms of houses on the market? Months of housing inventory? When we turn to a buyers market, inventory will increase, but to what number of houses? How many months of inventory?

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  2. Fed up with Erik

    RE: Erik @ 1

    I have been reading this blog for about 3 years and have never once felt the need to comment. But I am going to break my silence with the request that @Tim please block Erik from commenting. He is a constant distraction and I am tired of the majority of the comment section being dedicated to an asinine discussion about him and his condo in Juanita. Enough is Enough!

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  3. Sparky
  4. Erik

    RE: Fed up with Erik @ 2
    I never commented on those things on my above comment. You made one comment in 3 years and it was at a time I wasnt even discussing myself. I was asking about quantifying a sellers market.

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  5. Blurtman

    RE: Fed up with Erik @ 2 – And yet you are strangely compelled to read his posts. “Get out of my head!!!!!!!”

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  6. whatsmyname

    RE: Erik @ 1 – Wow, Erik. It looks like there is one thing that can get you into more trouble here than talking about your condo.

    I personally think it’s kind of high, but the number bandied about here over the years for a “balanced market” is 6 months sales in inventory. As you can see from the previous thread; once the months of supply number quadruples from the present, we will be on the edge of a buyer’s market.

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  7. Erik

    RE: Sparky @ 3
    Thanks for the references Sparky.

    One of the links said this:

    “Using trial and error, I found that the best relationship between the change in price and inventory is found when the inventory changes are lagged by 14 months – that is, the inventory change for a given period is matched with the price change for a period 14 months later. Intuitively this makes sense. Buyers see a big change in inventory, and factor it into their pricing decision.”

    If we believe this is true and the bottom is 3/2013, inventory should drive prices until 5/2014. I will trust this model and subscribe to this. The other link was about bottom calling and some methodology to it. It links to numerous methods, which I will have to read about. Thanks for the links. This is helpful information.

    Whatsmyname- Yeah, tough crowd I guess… I think when I popped off to ChrisM and slammed Clark County, he launched an attack on me. Suddenly people are crawling out of the wood works to slam me. When I fight back, they gang up on me.

    6 months of sales inventory does seem high to me too. That can probably change quickly though. I’m sticking with it turning to a buyers market on 5/2014 and we’ll have 6 months of inventory.

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  8. Azucar

    RE: Erik @ 4

    It was still somehow annoying enough that I gave it a thumbs down, though.

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  9. Erik

    RE: Azucar @ 9
    Okay. Yeah i gets old having these idiots constantly attack me.

    Do you think that the market will turn into a buyers market on 5/2014 as described in the post below?
    http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2007/06/17/why-inventory-matters/

    To me it seem reasonable and kind of intuitive as deejayoh describes. What do you think?

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  10. Lo Ball Jones

    On the one hand, having waited, I see prices going up slightly.

    On the other hand, I notice that it seems to be bringing sellers with real homes (not garbage) out into the market.

    The perfect storm will be a lot of people trying to sell all at once and pushing the prices back down but making the inventory stick.

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