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Case-Shiller: Second Derivative Losses Stack Up

Posted on September 3, 2013September 4, 2013 by The Tim

Before we put away the June Case-Shiller data, let’s have a look at my favorite alternative Case-Shiller charts.

First up, let’s take a look at the twenty-city month-over-month scorecard. Here’s the original post introducing this chart if you’d like more details. Click the image below for a super-wide version with the data back through 2000.

Case-Shiller Home Price Index: # of Cities Experiencing MoM Gains, Losses

As of June all twenty cities are still experiencing month-over-month gains, for the third month in a row now.

Interestingly though, the second derivative gains continue to turn to losses… here’s a look at the number of cities that are experiencing second derivative Case-Shiller gains or losses.

Number of Cities Experiencing 2nd Derivative (YoYoM) Gains, Losses

The number of cities experiencing second derivative gains continued to plummet in June, with just seven cities experiencing gains—the lowest number since November 2011. I still expect this trend to lead to prices flat-lining in most markets by the end of the year, which we’ll see in the data released by Case-Shiller in late February.

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Case-Shiller Tiers: Low Tier Intensifies Gains as Others Slow
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