Listing Growth in 2013 Largest Since 2007

Let’s have a look at how listings are doing over the last few months.

First up, here’s a view of how inventory has grown so far this year:

On-Market Inventory Growth: 2000-2013

Since 2013 started at a record-low level of homes on the market, inventory growth this year has been the largest since 2007, and the third-largest of any year since 2000 (the oldest data I have available).

Next, the last three months’ worth of new listings, comparing 2013 to every year I’ve got data for.

Total New Listings: July-September 2000-Present

July through September 2013 saw more new listings than the same period in 2012, 2011, and 2010. This year’s third quarter level was about 27 percent below the pre-bubble average for new third quarter listings between 2000 and 2003.

The next chart shows the difference between the number of new listings each month and the number of pending sales. Prior to late 2011 this number was almost always positive, except in December, when very few new listings hit the market. From October 2011 through March 2013 this measure was negative, indicating very tight inventory.

New Listings Less Pending Sales 2000-Present

This measure remains in positive territory, but the level has been slowly dropping off over the last few months.

Finally, let’s take a look at the “stale listings” measure, which uses the total listings, new listings, and pending sales counts to estimate how many listings are “carried over” from one month to the next.

Stale Listings 2000-Present

More good news for buyers, as this measure continues to rapidly increase.

Listings continue to climb out of the late 2012 / early 2013 pit, slowly but surely.

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

One comment:

  1. 1

    Its Just Like Death and Taxes

    Ultimately Seattle home owners have to pay the piper and put that home on the market for what it will fetch, not necessary what the seller really wanted too. Retirements, divorces and sicknesses go on forcing sales, no matter what optimum timing the sellers originally had in mind.

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