Posted by: Timothy Ellis (The Tim)

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

10 responses to “Case-Shiller Tiers: Low Tier Cooled Most in August”

  1. ron

    I’m looking forward to seeing the October numbers because I suspect that we’ll see a temporary dip in the trend due to the gov shut down.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  2. Erik

    RE: ron @ 1
    That seems unlikely to me. The government shutdown didn’t scare me at all, it was just a big joke. I think everyone knew they’d go back to work. The workers hyped up the media to put pressure on the government. That’s how it works.

    Same with when everyone was freaking out about the fiscal cliff. There is no way they would come to deadlock and destroy the united states. These are 2 examples of negotiation tactics parties use. Unions do this stuff all the time. Not sure why some people go nuts and let it bother them. One party would be dumb to come to an agreement ahead of the deadline. That is not how it works.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  3. mike

    RE: Erik @ 2 – A lot of people got very rich cratering the US economy back in 2008. It’s not inconceivable that another group would try to do it again using whatever means were most practical.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 5

  4. ron

    RE: Erik @ 2 – “…just a big joke”. Huh? That is easy for you to say because you were not personally impacted. The Ballard fishing fleet was grounded, for example, but maybe you are right….if it doesn’t impact me, it doesn’t matter. It took at least .5% growth off the us economy or about 24 billion. All for nothing….

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 6

  5. Erik

    RE: ron @ 4
    I dont see catastropic results. These people are lobbying for their side. If I wanted to win an arguement bad enough, I would do the same thing. It is too bad the economy suffers and workers suffer. Hopefully they collected unemployment.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 1

  6. mike

    I was just looking at the Zillow index data for my hood, and it’s up a whopping 23% YOY. Comparing to other neighborhoods in Seattle, Windermere is the only other ‘high tier’ neighborhood to hit much above 20% appreciation. Most of the other ten ‘big gainers’ were lower priced hoods south of I-90.

    While I don’t put a lot of stock in Zillow’s individual Zestimates, 23% puts my house pretty much in line with other comparable resales.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 1

  7. Awaken the Bear

    Your charts tell me Housing Bubble #2 is now over. Beautiful stuff. Look at dx/dy, dx^2/dy^2.

    Your Low Tier YOY reminds me of the fast line on stochastics charting. I’ll place my bets she is about to rip!!!

    Time to load the house with DRV shares.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 2

  8. Ira Sacharoff

    I just find it interesting how , looking at the data, you can come up with completely different headlines without changing any of the facts.
    “Low tier cooled most in August” could have just as easily been stated as ” Low tier continues to rise the most”, and it wouldn’t have been wrong.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 3

  9. Corndogs

    RE: ron @ 4 – 24 billion ain’t sh!t. Ronnie clearly isn’t a member of the middle class who pays for his own healthcare.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  10. Erik

    RE: Awaken the Bear @ 7
    This doesn’t have to be a bubble. Can’t it just hit bottom and bounce up? That is what I think has happened. The word bubble implies it will pop and tank. I am not convinced that will happen.

    Also, show me the d^2x/dy^2 graph. I don’t see it. x/y = CSI chart. dx/dy = YOY chart. d^2x/dy^2 would be the slope of the YOY chart. Show me the d^2x/dy^2 graph.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

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