Case-Shiller Tiers: Low Tier Dripped Most in December

Case-Shiller Tiers: Low Tier Dripped Most in December

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

  • Low Tier: < $283,101 (down 0.9%)
  • Mid Tier: $283,101 – $444,476
  • Hi Tier: > $444,476 (down 1.1%)

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through December 2013.

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

After gaining the most during the summar months, the low tier fell the most in December. Between November and December, the low tier fell 1.0, the middle tier dropped 0.2%, and the high tier lost 0.6%.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through December 2013.

Case-Shiller HPI - YOY Change in Seattle Tiers

Year-over-year changes were virtually unchanged for all three tiers in December. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of December – Low: +20.0%, Med: +14.4%, Hi: +10.2%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Case-Shiller: Decline from Peak - Seattle Tiers

Current standing is 26.2% off peak for the low tier, 18.1% off peak for the middle tier, and 14.5% off peak for the high tier.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 02.25.2014)

  

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

2 comments:

  1. 1

    Too Soon to See If the Price Drop Will Include YOY

    Along with the December price slip, mortgage applications slipping then too nationally….IMO, locally too.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-mortgage-applications-slip-latest-week-mba-120758576–sector.html

    To quote a savvy blogger to the news artcle above:

    “…Must be the weather, it certainly isnt because of this robust recovery we are having….”

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  2. 2
    m-s says:

    Yup, must be the weather, but you’d kind of expect the low tier to be dripping in December, anyway…

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

Leave a Reply

Use your email address to sign up with Gravatar for a custom avatar.
Your email address will not be published.

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>

Please read the rules before posting a comment.