NWMLS: Sales Inch Up, Prices Climb Again

NWMLS: Sales Inch Up, Prices Climb Again

June market stats were published by the NWMLS yesterday. Here’s a snippet from their press release: No Summer Slowdown Expected – Brisk Activity Reported.

Listing activity perked up during June, but strong job growth in the Seattle/King County region has brokers predicting brisk sales with competitive bidding throughout the summer.

“We are still suffering from low inventory in parts of Snohomish County, and we’re still seeing multiple offers on the majority of new listings,” reported Diedre Haines, regional managing broker in Snohomish County for Coldwell Banker Bain and a director with Northwest MLS. She described the market as “strange,” adding, “We are not feeling or sensing the onset of a typical summer slowdown.”

Nothing about the current market (or any time in the market over the last 9 years, really) is “typical.”

On with our usual monthly stats.

CAUTION

NWMLS monthly reports include an undisclosed and varying number of
sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

June 2014 Number MOM YOY Buyers Sellers
Active Listings 4,452 +7.1% +5.9%
Closed Sales 2,476 +6.4% +2.2%
SAAS (?) 1.42 -7.0% -0.4%
Pending Sales 3,175 -5.2% +2.7%
Months of Supply 1.80 +0.6% +3.6%
Median Price* $453,500 +2.5% +6.1%

Feel free to download the updated Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet (Excel 2003 format), but keep in mind the caution above.

Inventory grew again in June, but the year-over-year rate slowed down. Meanwhile, sales flipped from falling to climbing, and prices were up again. Price growth May to June was almost exactly the same as last year.

Median Price May to June 2013: +2.4%
Median Price May to June 2014: +2.5%

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

King County SFH Closed Sales

Sales hit year-over-year growth mainly because this same time last year saw a month-over-month drop, while this year rose.

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

King County SFH Inventory

Still inching upward, maybe fast enough to surpass 2012 inventory levels before the end of the year.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY

The latest movement in this chart was definitely in sellers’ favor, with the supply line moving down and the demand line moving up.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

King County SFH YOY Price Change

Still hovering in the 5-6 percent range.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

King County SFH Prices

June 2014: $453,500
March 2007: $454,950

Here are the articles from the Seattle Times and P-I:

Seattle Times: King County home prices up 6 percent over year
Seattle P-I: Home supply ticks up but remains tight

Since today’s a holiday, I’m going to hold off on the reporting roundup until Monday. See you then. Happy Independence Day!

  

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

5 comments:

  1. 1
    The Tim says:

    Apologies for the lighter-than-usual posting this week. I was traveling and away from the Internet most of the time.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 1

  2. 2
    Jonness says:

    Nice write-up Tim. The economy is continuing to heat up.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  3. 3
    Christian Wathne says:

    Thanks for the post, these are very informative.

    I’ve been trying to buy another house for the last couple months and have not yet had success. I feel like homes in average condition (which is pretty bad) are selling for what they should sell for after being renovated. I’m not finding properties where there’s available money to be made. I’m ready to sell my capitol hill condo, but I wont sell until I can find another place.

    I put in an offer of almost 5% over ask with 25% down on a rambler in bellevue last week and was beat out by a couple of higher offers. Its a tough time to be a buyer.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  4. 4
    Lo Ball Jones says:

    I have seen the future of housing…and it’s not King County (not yet).

    LGI Homes is doing it right! They are conquering the rental market in many cities (not here) but offering single family starter homes at incredible prices (some as low as $120,000).

    Even better, they sell at no money down, and payments from $750 to $1100.

    Starter Homes in Demand With Builder LGI Shares Soaring
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-25/starter-homes-in-demand-with-builder-lgi-shares-soaring.html

    Cheryl Pate-Yow rushed to LGI Homes Inc. (LGIH)’s sales office south of Houston the day after receiving a mailer that said she could own a new home for $689 a month, only $24 more than rent on her one-bedroom apartment.

    “I’m sick and tired of renting and my money goes nowhere,” Pate-Yow, a 46-year-old former chef, said during a visit to LGI’s Hall Park community showroom. “I didn’t think I could afford to own, but I got this flier in the mail.”

    LGI, an entry-level Texas builder that has moved into six more states, is demonstrating that the U.S. housing crash didn’t diminish the desire for homeownership. The company’s strategy of luring renters with low-cost houses and assisting them with getting mortgages has spurred record sales and made LGI the top-rated builder among analysts. It’s also attracting competition as D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI), the largest in the industry, starts a brand aimed at first-time buyers with prices starting at $120,000.

    Isn’t this what we really want?

    Easy to buy.
    Prices as low as rent.

    By, and by ….

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 2

  5. 5
    Erik says:

    I think inventory will be lower next month compared to last year. That will be a milestone.

    Good job on your project Christian. I lost my job, so I put my money in the stock market and haven’t made anything yet.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 1

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