Posted by: Timothy Ellis (The Tim)

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

3 responses to “Inventory Growth Continues at a Snail’s Pace”

  1. Erik

    Wooohooo!!!!! 5 new comments!!!!!

    Firstly I noticed that Tim did not show a linear graph comparing 2013 to 2014. Why did he show bar graphs with specific data such as “Total New Listings” and “May-July Listings”? Because if he showed the regular linear plot, it would be on top of the old 2013 plot. I have said multiple times that there are hungry buyers that will eat up the new inventory as fast as new inventory is put out there. It wasn’t that hard… all the agents on here were talking about multiple offers. I got 5 offers of asking price or better in 5 days when I sold December 2013.

    Tim drew a hypothetical line and plotted his hypothetical line vs actual values, but I guess we aren’t calling that a prediction because he didn’t say “Here is my prediction…” The point is, the whole time he drew the hypothetical line and plotted actual values against it, I said no way. There is no way people are getting 5 offers and a good home will not be gobbled up by the 4 losing offers. The hypothetical line that was in no way a prediction failed because it did not take into account the demand for homes from the losing bidders.

    I will give you a prediction… you may want to read carefully. In 2015, year/year housing inventory will increase. In 2015, the stock market will likely go down or remain flat since Mr. Shiller’s CAPE ratio has only been higher in 1929, 2000, and 2007. Housing prices will increase slowly except in the liveable areas that still haven’t gone up such as West Seattle, parts of south Seattle, and nicer rural areas.

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  2. softwarengineer

    RE: Erik @ 1
    You Ended With Nicer Rural Areas Going Down?

    Does that mean the areas where prices go up aren’t as nice? I invest in stocks and can tell you, all the dire stock market predictions were wrong the last 7 years. Predicting stocks and even mitigated mortgage interest rates hikes getting more tapered in 2015 is a wild guess IMO. We’ll know when the fat lady sings.

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  3. Kary L. Krismer

    Okay, I realize the topic is inventory growth, but it would be nice to have a graph of active inventory levels over time. As it is it’s sort of like having a car that has a meter showing acceleration and deceleration (an accelometer???), but no speedometer.

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