Seattle Bubble

Oh man. They let Elizabeth Rhodes take just one day off, and look what happens:

Gahh! It’s right there in giant black print, above the fold on the front page! I can’t imagine the Seattle Times’ real estate advertisers feeling too great about this…

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Yesterday I predicted that the local reporting would focus on the paltry month-to-month median price increase, backed up by a plethora of quotes from peppy real estate agents. Today’s reporting, for the most part, does not disappoint.

I’m starting to get the impression as I read some of these articles that the reporters are just as amused by agents’ blatant denial as I am. My sarcast-o-meter is detecting a slight hint of intentional irony in the juxtaposition of facts and figures that paint an increasingly drab picture of the market with upbeat comments from local agents that continue to insist that things are getting better every day. Maybe I’m reading too much into it. You be the judge.

Click below for the usual roundup of this month’s reporting.

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If you’re viewing Seattle Bubble for the first time today because you heard me, Tim Ellis, on the Dave Ross show (with sit-in David Goldstein) on 710 KIRO, I’d like to welcome you. Be sure to check out the about page to get a feeling for the purpose of this blog. If you’re interested in more of what we talk about here, I recommend reading some of the links on the Important Posts page. Feel free to jump into the discussion on the posts here on the blog and also in the forum. If you have any comments, threats, insults, etc. for me, you can contact me directly.

For regular readers who did not catch my segment on the radio this morning, here it is. FYI, although I was on for the whole hour, the actual length of the segment is only about 33 minutes after removing the news breaks and commercials.

For a limited time, you can also grab an mp3 of the segment directly from 710 KIRO.

I felt a lot better about this appearance than the last time I was on the Dave Ross show. Probably because I was the primary guest for the entire hour, so I had a lot more time to make my points. There are of course still some things I would have liked to get in but was unable to, such as addressing the “they’re not building any more real estate” arguments that some of the callers brought up, but on the whole, I think I presented the facts well.

If you’re viewing Seattle Bubble for the first time today because you heard me, Tim Ellis, on 710 KIRO, I’d like to welcome you. Be sure to check out the about page and some of the links on the right under “Read These.” Feel free to jump into the discussion on the posts here on the blog and also in the forum. If you have any comments for me, you can contact me directly.

For regular readers who did not catch my short segment on the Dave Ross show this morning, here it is:

I was caught a bit off guard at how short it was, and was hoping to make some additional points. Hopefully next time I can actually join Dave in-studio for an entire hour-long segment. I’d love to be able to have more time to discuss the issue with Dave and respond to calls.

Yet another fear-mongering “rents to skyrocket” article popped up this weekend, this one over at KIRO 7.

Odds are, they’re going to hike your rent next year — perhaps by more than you expected.

She slowdown in the Seattle housing market is beginning to impact apartment, condo and home renters, too.

For sale signs are becoming permanent fixtures in our neighborhoods. Buyers are scared. Many are now opting to rent, which means, more competition — and higher prices for rental units.

It’s true that if demand for rentals were steadily rising while the supply stayed constant (or declined), prices would continue to rise (to a point). That’s what the article, whose headline is “Housing Slowdown Expected To Send Rents Higher” is obviously claiming will happen when they talk about “scared buyers” driving up the demand for rentals. But amusingly, they go on to (apparently unwittingly) explain exactly why that is not likely to happen…

Two houses down the street haven’t sold, so Dave Goldberg decided to rent his instead.

At $1,600 a month, the rent payments will cover most of the mortgage.

“Sellers are scared. Sellers are feeling the effect of the downturn in the market — of what everyone thought would be a continuing rise in the market,” Goldberg said.

So, as the number of “scared sellers” increases, guess what? The rental supply increases, too. Increasing demand plus increasing supply equals rents stabilizing (or to be more accurate, rising steadily in line with incomes).

(Scott MacFarlane, Kiro 7, 10.19.2007)