Seattle Bubble

Sorry no stats or graphs from me, just in the trenches reporting.

Snohomish Co. Update:

My wife is off providing sterling service tonight in Issaquah for clients who are buying/selling a home, (yes, we do business all over) so I’ve got some free time to do a bit of blogging and research.

There are a quite a few homes both listed and FSBO that are short sale candidates. That means that if the existing homeowner were to get an offer, the lender would have to agree to take an amount less than the sum of their encumbrances.

After researching about 15 properties that were short sale candidates, I stopped. What’s the point. The story kind of repeated itself. Basically, the gist of it is that I see home prices “softening” further. Many short sales are in neighborhoods that were recently built in 2004, 2005, 2006, early 2007. 100% financing was the primary type of mortgage on just about all of these short sale candidates. Lots of sub-prime lenders financed these homes, some of which are no longer around. This really is the story that we are going to have to get used to.

If interest rates continue to stay low and prices continue to have downward pressure, those who can buy will be receiving much more house for their hard earned money. So that is the silver lining if you are on the buyers side of the HUD-1 Settlement Statement.

I would love to report that the market in Snohomish Co. is earnestly in the Spring groove for buying but the truth is that the first quarter of the year is coming to a close with sales volumes down YOY , so unless we have quite a change in the credit markets to get things moving along as we enter the prime selling/buying season of April, May and June, it may not be any better than the existing pace we are on.

As it stands, lending requirements have become stringent enough that it is exposing quite nicely how much of the buying in months past really was a function of consumers obtaining mortgages that were setting many up for financial distress. In other words, eliminating the loose lending (I know everyone has read this ad nauseum) has exposed the frenzied market for what it really was—a foundation of quicksand via toxic financing that could only be rescued by ever escalating housing prices. The unraveling of the credit markets, billions in losses and subsequent bail out of Wall Street superfortresses such as Bear Stearns and others (more to come?) shows that on every dollar lost there was an address somewhere in America tied to it.

In January, refinancing did take a very big jump when rates dropped dramatically to about 5% and many people took advantage (those that could anyway).

My belief is that inventory will continue to increase (outpace sales) as some of those listings that were taken off the market in Fall and Winter of 2007 try again this Spring.

In conclusion, the fallout from the mortgage binge and foolish lending is really disrupting markets across the country. It is not different here in the Puget Sound region and I hope the seriousness and disappointment in my tone comes across. Is this really what was intended when we think of the American Dream? I know, I know, it’s just a natural market cycle and I need to get over it.

S-Crow

Frank Nothaft, Vice President and Chief Economist of Freddie Mac:

“In the fourth quarter of 2007, 81% of Freddie Mac-owned loans that were refinanced resulted in new mortgages with loan amounts that were at least 5% higher than the original mortgage balances, according to Freddie Mac’s quarterly refinance review. The revised share for the third quarter of 2007 was 86%.”

Looks like people are increasing their debt load (and/or shifting the toy debt to housing debt).

In other news…..

Project Lifeline (up for debate is “just who’s lifeline is it?”)

The new “plan” revealed today by the Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Housing Secretary Alphonso Jackson outlined policy in which several leading lenders are working to stem the delinquent and foreclosure crisis by providing a short term moratorium for borrowers currently in or very close to foreclosure.

Matt Carter from Inman News describes the program:

“Participating Project Lifeline lenders — Bank of America, Citigroup, Countrywide Financial Corp., Chase, Washington Mutual and Wells Fargo — are sending letters to seriously delinquent borrowers. Borrowers who receive the letters must call their mortgage servicer within 10 days, agree to seek financial counseling, and provide updated financial information that can be used to draw up a workout plan.

In cases where lenders think a workout may be a better alternative than foreclosure, pending foreclosures will be put on hold for up to 30 days while a review process is undertaken and a new payment plan is drawn up. Borrowers who are approved for a workout plan that lowers their monthly payments will have their loan terms formally modified if they can prove they’re able to meet the new terms by making payments for three consecutive months.”

The end result of this policy will be debated.

As a market enthusiast, one of the items I find of interest is the change of tone and posturing by statements from various CEO’s whether in lending or in housing/building industry. For example, today in the New York Times, Indy Mac CEO Michael Perry was brought to task after revealing significant losses for the company. In 2007, Mr. Perry remarked that IndyMac would largely escape the turmoil in the lending industry due to the health of it’s lending practices and focus on Alt-A products.

Speaking of lending…. it appears that the largest mortgage insurer, MGIC Investment Corp., will impose stricter guidelines for the loans it insures in weaker markets. Beginning on March 3rd, MGIC will require larger down payments and higher FICO scores. Softer markets named include all of California, Nevada, Florida and Arizona. For condominiums, borrowers will be required to put down at least 10%.

All that to say, today’s borrowers are going to have to have some FICO and down payment mojo.

Notable Quote of the day: Mrs. S-Crow says, “Lenders…should have been doing this all along. People with no money should not have been getting loans for homes.” I like that lady!