Seattle Bubble

News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Seattle Bubble - News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Entries Tagged as 'Local Economy'

How Many More Washington Banks Will Fail?

By The Tim on September 15th, 2009 at 10:30 AM · 47 Comments

Interesting follow-up to Friday’s failure of Venture Bank via the Tacoma News Tribune: Some banks in state risk failure

The best news to derive from Friday’s announced failure and sale of DuPont-based Venture Bank came in the form of a report from a Seattle TV and radio station.

But the news – that no other banks in Washington were in trouble and facing closure – was very wrong.

I believe that the remark above is referring to this report from KOMO news, which contained the (false) claim that “as of right now, there are no other banks in financial trouble in the state.”

Yes, Venture did fail.

But yes again, in fact, there are other banks in the state that might also fail.

Scott Jarvis, director of the state Department of Financial Institutions, said Monday that he thinks he knows how that incorrect information was relayed to the public.

“The consumer reporter called Brad,” Jarvis said. (That would be Brad Williamson, head of banks at DFI.)

The reporter asked if any other banks were in trouble. Williamson – on Friday evening – answered, “We are not closing any more banks this week.”

“Somehow that got translated for the 11 o’clock news that there are no other banks in trouble,” Jarvis said.

“The truth is that we did not close any more banks on Friday,” he said.

And he continued, “There is considerable strain on our banking system attributable to the expansion we had in commercial real estate growth.”

With Ben Bernanke out there claiming that “the recession is very likely over,” it will be interesting to see how many more local banks continue to fail under the continued financial stress of non-performing construction loans.

(C.R. Roberts, Tacoma News Tribune, 09.15.2009)

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Poll: Is Washington State’s economy inherently stronger than the nation as a whole?

By The Tim on August 2nd, 2009 at 12:05 AM · 50 Comments

Please vote in this poll using the sidebar.

Is Washington State's economy inherently stronger than the nation as a whole?

  • Yes (24%, 40 Votes)
  • No (66%, 112 Votes)
  • Maybe / Don't Know (10%, 18 Votes)

Total Voters: 170


This poll will be active and displayed on the sidebar through 08.08.2009.

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Boeing “Bean Counters” Threatening to Leave Town

By The Tim on June 18th, 2009 at 7:02 AM · 118 Comments

Lots of news has come out over the last few days regarding Boeing. Here’s a roundup of some of the big headlines.

Airbus extends air show order lead over Boeing

Airbus has now racked up $11.5 billion in orders and agreements this week, well ahead of Boeing, which notched up its first air show order on Wednesday — a $153 million deal with Japan’s MC Aviation Partners for only two jets.

Boeing shrugged off the Airbus announcements, saying the company doesn’t save up orders to announce at air shows.

Emotionless Boeing considering labor stability for 2nd 787 line

Chicago-based The Boeing Co. says that when it decides where to put a second 787 line, it will do so without emotion and will take labor stability into account.

Boeing’s vice president of airplane programs, Pat Shanahan, said that the decision on where to put a second 787 assembly line will not take a long time.

“There are opportunities that we need to assess and I’ve worked there for 24 years, I like the people in Seattle, I grew up in Seattle, It’s a great community, but when you have the customer telling you you’re making it really hard to choose your product because when we buy it you can’t give it to us,” said Shanahan.

Qatar Airways CEO blasts Boeing, may cancel orders for 787

“The writing is in the wall for Boeing, and they don’t care,” Qatar Airways CEO Akbar Al Baker told Dow Jones at the Paris Air Show. “They’re too busy having lunches and dinners.”

“Boeing doesn’t realize how much they’re hurting their customers’ plans,” he said. “They’re very much mistaken if they think we’re going to give them much more time on the issue.”

“Unfortunately, Boeing is not run by commercial people,” Al Baker told a group of journalists here yesterday afternoon. “Boeing is run by bean counters and lawyers. We have some serious issues with them, and if they do not play ball with us, they will be in for a serious surprise.”

Managing the drones: Boeing forms unmanned aircraft division

Boeing is forming a Seattle-based division to focus its efforts to win contracts to supply unmanned aircraft.

Boeing has a broad portfolio of unmanned systems, but has yet to win a major contract from the Pentagon. Boeing’s unmanned aircraft include the ScanEagle, Integrator, Phantom Ray, Hummingbird A160 and HALE.

Boeing still directly employs 73,760 people around the Puget Sound—roughly 40% more than Microsoft and Amazon combined. I certainly hope that Boeing doesn’t decide to begin migrating the majority of its operations elsewhere, and I’m not in a position to judge whether talk from large airlines about switching to Airbus is just corporate posturing, but you can bet that if either of those things do happen, the local economy (and by extension, the housing market) will feel it.

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News Roundup: Local Banks on the Brink

By The Tim on March 30th, 2009 at 1:00 PM · 6 Comments

The last few days have seen a handful of articles in the local press on the subject of the strength (or lack thereof, as it turns out) of local banks. Here’s a brief summary.

First-up is a relatively in-depth look at the status of dozens of banks based in Washington State: Washington’s banks under stress

…several of Washington’s community banks also are clearly straining under the weight of the crisis, a Seattle Times analysis shows.

At least a dozen of the 52 Washington-based banks examined are carrying heavy loads of past-due loans, defaults and foreclosed properties relative to their financial resources. Many of these banks have set aside relatively little cash to cover problem loans, the analysis shows.

And even the relatively healthy banks are under more pressure than they were a year ago.

…at most community banks, residential mortgages were a relatively small part of their business. Instead, their troubles are tied directly to their heavy dependence on real-estate loans — mainly loans to local builders and developers.

“Many community banks found that (construction and development loans) was an area in which they could compete effectively against the big banks,” Frontier’s Fahey said.

At Frontier Bank, for example, construction and development loans made up 44.5 percent of all assets at year’s end. City Bank had 53.3 percent of its assets in such loans, and at Seattle Bank (until recently Seattle Savings Bank), they constituted a full 54.2 percent of total assets.

Such loans looked safe and generated big profits during the housing boom. But since the housing market began to crater in late 2007, defaults on such loans have soared industrywide.

We know that it will likely take between two and eight years to work through King County’s housing oversupply. In the mean time, small builders—and by extension the local banks that loaned them money—are going to be experiencing some tough times.

Next up, the Olympian brings news of some even more serious news for Lacey-based Venture Bank: Venture Bank faces financial deadline

Federal regulators have ordered Venture Bank to raise more capital or find a buyer by next month because of concerns about its financial health.

In a letter dated Feb. 13 but disclosed on the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s Web site Friday, the FDIC notified the bank that it has 60 days to raise more money, find a buyer or find a merger partner. The 60-day period ends April 14.

Meanwhile, Federal Home Loan Bank of Seattle reported a loss of $241 million in the fourth quarter 2008: Federal Home Loan Bank of Seattle reports losses

And finally, the Seattle Times front page story today focuses in on the impact of the job losses at WaMu’s former downtown headquarters: Layoff aftershocks hit WaMu neighborhood

So is there any good economic news out there for Seattle and Washington State? Well, not really on the banking front, but Amazon is still pretty profitable, and hey, at least we’re not Cleveland, right?

(Drew DeSilver, Seattle Times, 03.29.2009)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 03.29.2009)
(Seattle Times, 03.30.2009)
(Marc Ramirez, Seattle Times, 03.30.2009)

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Local Companies Tighten Belts, King County Cuts Jobs

By The Tim on October 14th, 2008 at 1:02 PM · 41 Comments

As the far-reaching economic consequences of the popping of the housing/credit bubble unfold, local governments are feeling the pain. Snohomish County faces a $9 million shortfall for 2009, forcing a hiring freeze. While down in King County, Ron Sims just announced that 255 jobs will be cut.

Financially ailing King County will send layoff notices to as many as 255 employees today, on top of 150 jobs already eliminated.

Paring next year’s general fund to $644 million, Sims said, meant cutting $93 million from what would have been needed to maintain current levels of government service.

The budget is out of whack because revenues from sales tax and investments have dropped while the cost of employee benefits, cost-of-living adjustments, fuel and new labor contracts have risen.

One large factor in the drop of sales tax revenues is probably the end of the housing ATM. As documented at Calculated Risk, Mortgage Equity Withdrawal plunged to near zero in the second quarter 2008.

Mortgage Equity Withdrawal

Seattle Times columnist Jon Talton runs through some more ways that the economic crunch is weighing on Seattle.

In recent days, the gravity of the crisis for the Puget Sound region may have been overshadowed by the gut-wrenching gyrations of the stock market — itself a marker for the lost wealth in a place heavily populated by investors. But Microsoft’s announcement of re-evaluating its hiring situation is very big. Boeing and the striking Machinists, seeing the gravity of the moment, are talking again.

Nordstrom same-store sales falling nearly 10 percent in the five weeks ending Oct. 4 is a warning for what’s to come for other retailers based here. As retirement nest eggs are vaporized, jobs lost and houses foreclosed, those vaunted consumers can no longer prop up the economy.

Nor can we count on exports. The world economy is slamming into a recession, and last week the International Monetary Fund warned of “extremely serious” consequences, including famine.

Yikes. I guess when folks were going around touting Seattle’s economy as special and stronger than elsewhere, they didn’t really consider the far-reaching effects of the bursting bubble. The bottom line seems to be that this mess runs deeper than anyone really realized.

(Keith Ervin, Seattle Times, 10.14.2008)
(Calculated Risk, 10.06.2008)
(Jon Talton, Seattle Times, 10.12.2008)

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Seattle Economy Maybe Not So Isolated After All

By The Tim on October 9th, 2008 at 9:27 AM · 41 Comments

Here are a couple of recent stories to drive home the point that the Seattle area economy is not in fact magically separate from the national/international economy, as some have made it out to be over the last few years.

Brad Wong, Seattle P-I: Tough economy forces cutbacks for area residents

The economic shocks to the nation’s banks, stock markets, credit industry and real estate business have forced Seattle-area residents to review their finances and save what they can.

Thoughts about how to pay for bills — from mortgages and rent to higher food and gas prices — have consumed area residents fearful their quality of life could diminish.

As residents — including those not in immediate dire straits — hatch new plans to weather the turmoil, even young people said they are learning how quickly national problems can affect daily life.

Donna Gordon Blankinship, AP: WA people worried but not desperate about economy

People worried about the economy are more likely to seek help paying their bills or feeding their families than turning to suicide or violence as one man did in Los Angeles this week, mental health experts in Washington state said Tuesday.

“I don’t think the average response to the downturn in the economy is more people thinking of suicide because they can’t pay their bills,” said Kathleen Southwick, executive director of the Crisis Clinic in Seattle.

Southwick said her nonprofit agency’s 24-hour crisis line has not seen an increase in calls these past few weeks, but the “211″ non-emergency line has seen about a 50 percent increase in the number of people calling to find out where they can get help paying the rent and keeping the lights on.

The last time the help line saw such a sharp increase in calls was a few years ago “when the tech bubble burst,” Southwick said.

So much for the theory that we’re better prepared to weather the storm than we were when the dot-com bubble popped. Who could have guessed that seven years of pretending everything is fine and that we’re magically immune wouldn’t be enough to stop economic calamity from arriving in Washington State?

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