Seattle Bubble

News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Seattle Bubble - News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Entries Tagged as 'real_estate_professionals'

Can the NWMLS Control Online Conversations About Listings?

By The Tim on October 2nd, 2009 at 6:00 AM · 62 Comments

I linked this up last week on the Twitter account, but the story has been getting enough chit chat online in the last few days that I figure it deserves its own post here.

In news first broken by local REALTOR® Marlow Harris, the NWMLS will apparently be adding two new ways to fine their members via a pair of new fields on the listing input sheets. In essence, new checkboxes have been added to the listing sheet: “buzz off Zillow” and “beat it bloggers.”

What this means is that sellers are now given the option of whether or not Zillow estimates will be allowed to appear on their listings that are posted on NWMLS member sites, and also the option of whether or not NWMLS members are permitted to blog about their listing. For the full official description of the two new listing parameters hit Marlow’s September 25th post for an excerpt from the NWMLS bulletin.

Median Sale Price / sq. ft.

Obviously the point of the first one is obvious. Giving the potential seller an option to prevent Zillow and other “automatic valuation model” price estimates from appearing next to their listing is no doubt something that some sellers and agents have wished for for some time. Despite the fact that Zillow is a completely automated system based on sometimes incorrect inputs, and the company openly admits that their estimates should not be treated as a gold standard, some sellers and seller’s agents have convinced themselves that if a Zillow estimate displayed on the same page as their listing is lower than their asking price, it’s Zillow’s fault if nobody wants to buy their house.

The second option is actually opening up their rules just slightly, as they previously had a blanket prohibition on NWMLS member agents blogging about any listings that were not your own. That’s what the $50,000 fine slapped on Redfin in 2007 was all about. With this new checkbox, sellers will now be able to “opt-in” to blogging.

Not surprisingly, the anti-Zillow move has stirred up some in the industry, especially among those that have had it in for Zillow since day one. Since Zillow is not a member of the NWMLS themselves, insiders there insist that the new rule will have little effect on their business. I have pointed this out when people have asked in the past, but this is a prime example of why I have no interest in Seattle Bubble becoming a member of the NWMLS, even though it would gain me direct access to their database for some prime number-crunching.

In an amusing twist on the whole thing, Marlow followed up her post on these new rules with another angle on the subject yesterday: Can new technology make some MLS rules unenforceable?

It could be that technology will trump all of these new NWMLS rules, and blogging/comments/AVM restrictions will become ineffective and impossible to enforce with the new Google Toolbar application called Sidewiki.

…anyone who installs the Sidewiki will be able to add comments to your real estate webpage, including individual property pages that you may have created to help market your properties.

There is no “opt-out” tab, no way to eliminate the sidebar comments, no way to edit out objectionable material, porn, spam links, comments on the personal character of the sellers or the agent or the home or the neighborhood.

It seems to me that the NWMLS rules are set up to attempt to restrict and stifle as much conversation about listings as possible in a misguided attempt to give the seller absolute control over how their home is “marketed.” Unfortunately for the NWMLS, fancy technology or not, people are free to talk about home listings in real life in whatever way they choose.

If I wanted to start a weekly tour of the most overpriced homes in Seattle, where we drive around town and gather outside homes for sale through the NWMLS and mock the granite countertops and other such faux-luxury “upgrades,” the NWMLS can’t stop me. And once you move the conversation online, it becomes even less possible to control it.

If I wanted to start a website that provided a searchable map of every house for sale on the market, linked to open forum threads on every house where people could say whatever they want about the agent or the home or the neighborhood—again, the NWMLS couldn’t do a thing about it.

The NWMLS can certainly exert control over their members by levying ridiculously large fines for seemingly innocuous conversations, but in my opinion, the more they attempt to stifle and restrict the free flow of information and ideas relating to their precious listings, the more they will encourage another, more open competitor to step up and make their entire system obsolete.

→ 62 CommentsCategories: Opinion
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$8,000 Tax Credit: To Extend or Not to Extend?

By The Tim on September 16th, 2009 at 1:00 PM · 47 Comments

As the expiration date on the first-time homebuyer $8,000 tax credit nears, talk is stirring about renewing and expanding the scheme. Here’s a brief rundown of some of the varying related pieces I’ve been following from around the web.

First up, we’ve got the National Ass. of Realtors pushing hard on their members to “Write Congress Now”:

The National Association of REALTORS® is calling upon its 1.2 million members to urge Congress to extend the successful homebuyer tax credit into next year.

Since its inception earlier this year, the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit has brought 1.2 million new buyers into the market—350,000 of whom would not have purchased a home without the credit, according to NAR. The credit is due to expire November 30.

As Calculated Risk has been pointing out, if the NAR’s numbers are accurate, that translates into a cost to (future) taxpayers of over $43,000 per additional sale (that would not have happened anyway). What a deal, right? Plus, how many of these “additional sales” are sales that would have taken place anyway in 2010 or 2011 (i.e. – borrowed demand)? I’d bet quite a few.

Here’s some more from Calculated Risk:

…if we actually look at the numbers, this is a poor choice for a second stimulus package.

…the program cost is about $43,000 per additional buyer. Very expensive.

Now the National Association of Home Builders estimates that expanding and extending the credit through 2010 would generate 500,000 additional sales at a cost of about $30 billion. So this is approximately $60,000 per additional house sold. And I think the cost will be much higher.

REMEMBER: Many homes will be sold to buyers who would have bought anyway without the credit. These buyers will still receive the credit. This year almost 2 million home buyers will claim the tax credit, but only 350,000 were additional buyers. That means this was a poorly targeted tax credit since so many people receive it who would have bought anyway.

Meanwhile, even as the NAR is urging their members to encourage Congress to extend the credit, rank-and-file members seem to have reservations. Check out this post from a Realtor on ActiveRain (basically MySpace for real estate agents):

While I am glad that the tax credit has probably helped stimulate the real estate market and the economy some, I also wonder about the longer-term effects of this so-called “stimulus” money on this nation’s deficit and national debt.

I would rather see the money in the hands of the people as opposed to Wall Street fat cats or failing banks though. However I also hear stories on the news and elsewhere of people using the $8,000 to pay for frivolous items. Kind of a windfall shopping spree. I also don’t like mortgaging the future of this country by giving free money to people while increasing massive debt that may end up crushing our nation one day (if it hasn’t already). Kind of “socialized” real estate buying if you can call it that. Take from my pocket and put it in yours.

The comments to that post (pretty much entirely left by real estate agents) are also an interesting read.

At this point, I’m not even convinced that extending the existing credit will even have much of an effect. Everyone knows that the current credit expires at the end of November. People who were “on the fence” about buying for whom the tax credit was enough to spur them to action are already dashing to get their purchase in before the deadline. How many people are really out there thinking, “you know, I wasn’t planning on buying a house at all, and the 2009 tax credit was not enough of an incentive, but if they would just extended it into 2010, I would definitely jump in there and buy!” Probably not very many.

So what do you think? Should the tax credit be extended? Is it likely to be extended? Why or why not?

→ 47 CommentsCategories: Opinion
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Seattle Real Estate Reporting: There Can Be Only One

By The Tim on August 12th, 2009 at 8:41 AM · 88 Comments

When I started Seattle Bubble just over four years ago in August 2005, there were many sources for local real estate news—The Seattle Times, The Seattle P-I, Rain City Guide, etc… I started this site not due to a lack of news sources, but due to what I felt was a lack of consumer-oriented local real estate news. All of the existing sources were heavy on the industry cheerleading and light on actual investigation and digging into the numbers.

Lately the local real estate news scene has been changing quite a bit…

There can be only one.Back in November of last year the Seattle Times’ dedicated real estate reporter Elizabeth Rhodes was voluntarily downsized. Yesterday SeattlePI.com real estate reporter Aubrey Cohen announced that he is moving to the aerospace beat, with no mention of anyone moving into the dedicated real estate position.

Over at the Times, business reporter Eric Pryne has been doing a good job with the occasional real estate story, and Aubrey says that he will “continue to help guide” the real estate reporting at the P-I. I don’t doubt that both news outlets will continue to cover real estate issues, but neither seems to have a dedicated reporter for the subject.

Meanwhile, the P-I “reader blog” Seattle Real Estate Professionals is all but dead, averaging about one post every other week. Rain City Guide has evolved itself into some sort of real estate search / general industry discussion site with Seattle-specific stories having become quite rare.

It would seem that after four years, Seattle Bubble is now Seattle’s only source for dedicated local real estate reporting.

With that in mind, I’d like to open up a conversation with you, the readers, about what you would like to get out of the local real estate reporting provided here at Seattle Bubble. Rather than kicking back and using the lack of competition as an excuse to be lazy, I’d prefer to take this opportunity to improve the site even more.

So what would you like to get out of Seattle Bubble? More personal interest stories? More interactive maps and interactive charts? Additional community-driven features? Coverage of specific neighborhood issues? Let’s hear your ideas.

→ 88 CommentsCategories: Features
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Signs of the Times

By The Tim on December 2nd, 2008 at 10:32 AM · 66 Comments

I thought I’d lump a few “sign of the times” type of stories into a single post, since it gets old after a while constantly reading (and writing) posts that are basically just slight variations on the “the real estate market is slow” theme.

Here’s another interesting piece from Kirsten Grind over at the Puget Sound Business Journal about reductions and shifts in the real estate agent job market over the last year.

Since the end of last year, about 2,800 Washington agents have abandoned the business, a decrease of about 9 percent, and hundreds more have put their licenses on hold, according to the state’s Department of Licensing.

“I think everyone was expecting some sort of rebound in the third and fourth quarter,” said Russell Hokanson, chief executive of the Seattle-King County Association of Realtors.

“But just when it seemed we were coming out, we had another meltdown in the stock market in September and October and that hit consumer confidence again.”

The article also points out an interesting trend that many agents are moving to smaller, brokerages in an attempt to cut costs during these lean times. Maybe it’s just me, but I think Kirsten Grind has been on a roll lately with interesting and insightful articles. Far better than the usual rehashed press releases we get from the Times. And I’m not just saying that because of this article.

Meanwhile, yet another Seattle condo project is headed for the auction block…

Here’s a scene that would have been unheard-of a year ago.

Back then, the condominiums at Press on Capitol Hill were selling in the $300,000s or $400,000s. But for the past couple of weeks, big red “Auction” signs have adorned the building — and bids for some of the condos inside will start at roughly half their original price when they are auctioned off later this month.

As one Press Condominiums resident Brian Gruneir noted Friday, there was an air of desperation a couple of weekends ago, when teenagers stood on nearby corners holding eye-catching red auction signs with arrows pointed toward the Press’ two buildings at Belmont Avenue and Pine Street.

I’ve been watching the county records to see how much the Seventeen07 condos ended up going for in their recent auction, but data has not yet been posted. Also, Quadrant homes is “holding off on further selling” for their “The Ridge at Gig Harbor” development, and D.R. Horton is auctioning off nearly 100 Puget Sound houses with “starting bids as low as $89,000.”

Lastly, I posted this one on the forums, but thought it was worth sharing on the front page as well. This large billboard has been on display right next to southbound I-5 in Tacoma all year. My wife took this picture last Wednesday as we drove down to my parents’ for Thanksgiving:

Overly Optimistic

It would appear that sales projections for 2008 at Soundbuilt Homes were at least two times too high. Unless they are holding out some secret weapon for Christmas, I doubt they’ll be selling another 442 homes before the year is out to make use of that lonely fourth digit. Oh well.

(Kirsten Grind, Puget Sound Business Journal, 12.01.2008)
(Kery Murakami, Seattle P-I, 12.01.2008)

→ 66 CommentsCategories: News
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P-I’s Aubrey Cohen Tackles the Real Estate “Debate”

By The Tim on August 3rd, 2008 at 8:20 PM · 47 Comments

Rain City Guide, Seattle Real Estate Professionals, and Seattle Bubble all get mentions in Aubrey Cohen’s latest piece for the P-I: Debate over real estate goes online

Real estate agent John “Mack” McCoy wasn’t expecting an argument when he started blogging about housing and commenting on other posts and news stories online.

“I started out thinking that people might be interested in what a real estate professional has to say about buying and selling homes,” he said.

“Now, it seems that the audience is (composed) of people who want to tell real estate professionals what they know about buying and selling homes.”

“I’m not speaking from the perspective of someone who has something to sell, but rather just a guy that is taking in a ton of information and trying to process it all to make it easier for other people to get beyond the sales pitches and find out what’s really going on,” [Seattle Bubble author Tim] Ellis said.

The article is worth a read, although there’s not really any new information in there for anyone that has been following any of those three sites. I guess the purpose of the article is more to point out the online discussion to folks that tend to just read the newspapers.

→ 47 CommentsCategories: News
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Realtors: Want to know why many people don’t trust you?

By The Tim on February 20th, 2008 at 2:00 PM · 61 Comments

Bill Hutchinson, president of the Thurston County Realtors AssociationIf you want to know why people don’t tend to trust real estate agents, here’s a great example from a Q&A with Bill Hutchinson, president of the Thurston County Realtors Association in The Olympian:

Q: Given where the market is today compared with a couple of years ago, what would your advice be for sellers and buyers now that the market has slowed down a bit?

A: Right up front, this is a great time to buy. Interest rates are historically low; we have a great inventory of homes. As a buyer, what more can you ask for?

What more indeed. How about a reasonable price? Is now a “great time to buy” if finding a reasonably priced home is your top priority? Is now a “great time to buy” if you have a 5% down payment and your house drops 10% in value in the next two years (highly likely), and you have to sell a house that’s worth less than you owe on the loan?

I’m not anti-realtor as a rule, but I definitely am against the variety of realtor who insists that “it is always a great time to buy,” no matter the circumstances. That’s just dishonest.

(Jim Szymanski, The Olympian, 02.19.2008)

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