Seattle Bubble

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through February 2009.

All three tiers dropped again in February, but in a reversal from last month, the high tier fell the slowest, dropping just 0.6% month-to-month. The low tier has rewound to April 2005, the middle tier to June 2005, and the high tier to June 2005.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through February 2009.

The low tier inched closer to matching its October 2005 +19.6% performance but in opposite magnitude. The high tier actually improved slightly from a year-over-year basis, for the first time since March 2006. The low tier again kept its title for largest YOY decline, with the high and middle tiers swapping places. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of February – Low: -18.1%, Med: -14.9%, Hi: -14.6%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

What’s interesting is that the decline softened somewhat month-to-month for the high and low tiers, but continued at roughly the same rate for the middle tier. It will be interesting to see if this is just a one-month outlier or the beginning of some sort of pattern.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 04.28.2009)

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through January 2009.

All three tiers continued their steep declines in January, but this time the high tier took the largest month-to-month hit: 4.2%. The low tier has rewound to May 2005, the middle tier to August 2005, and the high tier to July 2005.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through January 2009.

The highest YOY performance turned in by any of the tiers during the bubble was October 2005 for the low tier, coming in at +19.6%. The way things are trending right now, it looks as though all three tiers could turn in negative YOY performance in greater quantities as early as March. The low tier also kept its title for largest YOY decline. The high tier held its position in second place. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of January – Low: -17.4%, Med: -13.5%, Hi: -14.8%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

The high tier continued the trend that began last month, falling slightly faster than either of the other tiers that far from their respective peaks.

Seattle’s respective performance of the high tier vs. the low tier stands out as unusual when compared to other cities such as San Francisco, where the low tier has fallen quite a bit further than the high or middle tiers.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 03.31.2009)

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through December 2008.

December was downright rough in all three tiers, with the low tier again taking the largest hit—4.2% in a month. The low tier has rewound to August 2005, the middle tier to September 2005, and the high tier to October 2005.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through December 2008.

The low tier also holds the title for largest YOY declines (still). Meanwhile, the high tier moved into second place with a nearly 3-point increase in the YOY drop. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of December – Low: -15.3%, Med: -12.4%, Hi: -13.0%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

The high tier deviated noticeably from its recent pattern of following the tracks laid by the low and middle tiers, which continued to track each other fairly closely.

It is somewhat unusual that the high tier would be experiencing a larger correction than the low and middle tiers, since it did not see as much of an increase during the bubble. I imagine this might have something to do with the conforming loan limits, but there is really no way to be sure.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 02.24.2009)

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through November 2008.

Price declines were sharper in November in all three tiers, with the low tier taking the largest hit—3.1% in a month. The low and middle tiers have now rewound to December 2005, and the high tier to February 2006.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through November 2008.

The low tier continues to hold the title for largest YOY declines. The high tier also dropped under 10% YOY for the first time in November. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of November – Low: -12.7%, Med: -11.2%, Hi: -10.3%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

All three tiers continue to drop at roughly the same rate from their respective peaks.

If price declines continue at the same speed they have averaged over the last six months, over the next year prices in Seattle will rewind back to early 2005. Of course, the chance that price declines will continue at the same speed rather than continuing to accelerate further seems somewhat unlikely at this point.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 01.27.2009)

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through October 2008.

Prices fell at virtually the same rate in October as they did in September for all three tiers. This brings the low and middle tiers back to February 2006, and the high tier back to April 2006. The middle tier took the biggest percentage hit in October for the third month in a row, falling 1.7% in a single month.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from August 2002 through October 2008.

The low tier again had the biggest year-over-year hit. And again both the low and the middle tiers fell over 10% YOY in October, while the high tier just barely came in under 10%. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of October – Low: -11.2%, Med: -10.5%, Hi: -9.4%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

The decline continues to track remarkably closely across the three tiers, despite the fact that the low tier saw a larger run-up during the bubble.

Here’s one more bit of data that’s somewhat interesting. For the tiered index, Case-Shiller provides dollar amounts that define each tier. Here’s the way they break down the tiers, according to their methodology pdf:

For the purpose of constructing the three tier indices, price breakpoints between low-tier and middle-tier properties and price breakpoints between middle-tier and upper-tier properties are computed using all sales for each period, so that there are the same number of sales, after accounting for exclusions, in each of the three tiers.

Last October’s tiered breakdown was as follows:

Low: <$363419
Mid: $363419 – $523613
Hi: >$523613

Here is this October’s breakdown:

Low: <$299720
Mid: $299720 – $433549
Hi: >$433549

While the tiered index values have only fallen 9-11%, the tier breakpoints have dropped around 17% in the last year. If I’m interpreting this data correctly, that means that the mix of homes selling has shifted down noticably toward the less expensive homes in the past year. If I were guessing, I’d say that is probably due to the difficulties in getting jumbo loan financing for homes priced above $567,500.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 12.30.2008)

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through September 2008.

Price drops accelerated slightly in September for all three tiers. The low tier and middle tiers are rewound to just below April 2006 values, while the high tier is just above its May 2006 level. The middle tier again took the biggest percentage hit in September, falling 1.8% in a single month.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from August 2002 through September 2008.

The low tier had the biggest year-over-year hit, but not by a large margin. Both the low and the middle tiers fell over 10% YOY in September. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of September – Low: -10.5%, Med: -10.2%, Hi: -9.2%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

The decline frome the peak looks remarkably similar across the three tiers since peak +12. This is interesting, since the low tier reached a considerably higher peak than the middle and high tiers, and it would be reasonable to assume that it will correct further. So far we have not seen that happen to a large degree. It will be interesting to see whether the HPI for the three tiers get closer over the next year.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 11.25.2008)