Seattle Bubble

I’m sure that those of you who have been reading Seattle Bubble since at least April recall the AP study that heralded Seattle as the “most educated” city in the USA (or “smartest,” depending on whether the article author made the false assumption that more education == smarter). According to the April study:

Forty-seven percent of Seattle’s adults hold bachelor’s degrees, the strongest proportion of college-educated residents in any big city.

However, a new study by Forbes lists America’s ten most educated cities (again mis-titled as the “smartest cities”), and Seattle is nowhere to be found. Here’s the complete list:

#1 Boulder, CO
#2 Bethesda, MD
#3 Ann Arbor, MI
#4 Cambridge, MA
#5 San Francisco, CA
#6 Durham, NC
#7 Fort Collins-Loveland, CO
#8 Washington, DC
#9 Bridgeport, Stamford, and Norwalk, CT
#10 San Jose, Sunnyvale, and Santa Clara, CA

The methodologies of the two studies sound fairly similar, so I’m left wondering how Seattle went from #1 to below #10.

Using data from Sperling’s BestPlaces, we looked at data from the 200 biggest metropolitan areas in the U.S. and ranked them based on the percentage of the population age 25 and over with at least a bachelor’s degree.

Whatever our percentage of degreed adults truly is, I don’t think that an “educated” populace is some kind of magic bullet that will keep housing prices rising. I only really bothered mentioning this because some people made such a big deal about Seattle’s #1 position in the April study.

Personally, I don’t put much stock in Forbes, but I know a lot of people do, so being left off of their list probably comes as a bit of a blow to the collective ego of our city. Oh well. At least we were the reigning champions for eight months.

(Elisabeth Eaves, Forbes, 12.15.2006)

From the Seattle Times over the weekend:

Almost every dollar Todd Asher earns is spoken for. He has one daughter in college, another in high school and a toddler in diapers.

“We made a decision to have my wife stay at home with our 18-month-old son, so we’re living off my income, paying for tuition, diapers and everything else,” said Asher, of Sammamish. “We’re all about making money go as far as possible.” Asher, 39, has found a way to save a little each month through an interest-only mortgage loan. He diligently puts the savings into his 401(k), an individual retirement account and mutual funds.

“My goal when we purchased our current home was to buy the most house for the least amount of money and then save, save, save,” Asher said.

Does this logic sound a bit off to anyone? What happened to the idea of living below your means?

Some mortgage specialists and financial planners believe unconventional home loans could be good tools to help consumers put away money for their future — if they’re disciplined enough to invest the mortgage savings.

If homebuyers invest the extra $160 to $200 they save each month on an interest-only mortgage, then it “absolutely makes sense,” said Jeff Tisdale, a broker at Skye Mortgage in Bellevue.

Totally, Jeff.

But Paul Merriman, founder and president of Seattle-based Merriman Capital Management, said every dollar a young homeowner invests now from mortgage savings will make a surprising difference when he or she retires.

Consider this scenario: A 30-year-old homebuyer invests $200 a month in a Roth IRA for five years. With a 10 percent compound rate of return (based on the S&P 500), he will have $15,312 in five years. Then, because he faces a higher mortgage payment of principal and interest, he stops contributing to the IRA. Even if he adds nothing more to the investment, the money continues to multiply.

“They will have $267,185 at age 65 and they will be able to take tax-free distributions of $16,031 (6 percent) the first year,” Merriman said. “If they continue to earn 10 percent while taking out 6 percent, they will take out over $500,000 and have $585,435 left at age 85.”

Consider this scenario: Based on the last 35 years of inflation, $267,185 will only be approximately $53,034 in 2042 dollars, which probably won’t even buy you a Hyundai (assuming there are any fossil fuels left in which to operate it)

I think it’s also safe to consider that whatever McMansion they purchased will be worth much, much less than their purchase price in years to come. Money isn’t free and without exception debt -always- must be repaid. How will this paycheck-to-paycheck family ever get out from under this house?

“Most people want everything now, and they come back every two years looking for more money,” he said.

He also has families who “come back a little richer” each time with more money in the bank.

“I can’t keep track of what people do once they walk out my door,” Tisdale said. “I can tell you that the ones who are committed to investing their savings are rare.”

The home ATM has all but dried up. The American public is now in their 19th consecutive month of negative savings. This family and many like it are are literally living on borrowed time. What’s the point of an interest only loan when you can rent a suitable home, closer to work, for much less than “buying”. Why put yourself under such pressure, especially when you aren’t building any equity?

A house has become more of a consumer product than an investment, especially based on current false valuations and the way they are physically built today.

This family is only one job loss, sickness, or interest rate hike away from a CH13 bankruptcy. The American Dream is looking more and more like a nightmare. The suburbs with their large McMansions will be the slums of the future.

(Linda Thomas, Seattle Times, 12.16.2006)

This is just too (unintentionally?) funny for me to pass up. On Tuesday, Ardell over at RCG made a post about the online alternatives to “full service” brokers that are available in increasing numbers to help people buy and sell houses. Here’s the part that I got a good chuckle out of (emphasis hers, as usual):

Redfin, Zillow, Zip Realty, For Sale by Owner in the MLS companies, these all represent the newer “alternative” business models… Why should “Traditional Brokers” HELP the Alternative Business Models to succeed? Because WE NEED them, now more than ever, all of us. The consumer needs them. The industry needs them. We need a whole lot more flavors of Kool-Aid out there.

That’s right, you read it straight from the agent’s keyboard: traditional brokers, real estate websites, discount brokers, FSBO tools… they’re all just different flavors of Kool-Aid! So drink up, consumers. Drink up!

In other RCG-related news, contributor Galen Ward has finally launched his fancy real estate search site ShackPrices.com. I have to admit, it’s got a sharp interface on top of zippy functionality and lots of nice features. I could definitely see it becoming my favorite real estate search tool.

Now if only there were some real estate out there worth searching for…

(Ardell DellaLoggia, Rain City Guide, 12.12.2006)

Here are a few quotes from newspaper articles in October, November, and December about the housing market:

October
[A]: “I fully expect things to pick up the first part of the year.” Although the pace of sales has slowed, there are no clear indications that overall prices are going to decline, real estate analysts say. Data released yesterday support their view.

November
[B]: …industry analysts said [the] housing boom seems to be coming to a quiet end. The balloon isn’t bursting, they said, but it’s losing steam.

[C]: …sales of existing homes and condominiums declined … last month. Even with the decline in sales, the median price of an existing home sold last month rose [year-over-year].

December
[D]: sales … declined in the month of November. … The median price for a home sold last month was up from a year ago. … “The current pace of home sales activity remains historically strong. … I truly believe the housing market will continue to expand. But rather than the double-digit price appreciation we’ve seen, we might see that drop to a 5 or 6 percent appreciation sometime toward the end of next year.”

Nothing new, right? It’s pretty much more of the same—what we’re used to reading whenever the local rags start talking about real estate in the greater Seattle area.

Only, there’s a few details I didn’t mention about the above quotes. They’re from last year, they’re not from the local rags, and they’re not referring to Seattle.

On a suggestion from reader John Law the II, I went searching for news reports from a year ago about the nationwide housing market (quotes C & D), and for good measure I pulled a few quotes from San Diego as well (A & B). What I found bore an eerie similarity to the kinds of things we’ve seen printed in the local press regarding the Seattle market the past few months.

So, a year ago the “experts” were predicting continued (but slowing) appreciation, with no price declines. Let’s see how well those predictions held up.

San Diego, October 2005: “Although the pace of sales has slowed, there are no clear indications that overall prices are going to decline, real estate analysts say. Data released yesterday support their view.”

San Diego, December 2006: “San Diego County housing prices slipped 6.9 percent last month, the biggest year-over-year drop on record.”

Nationwide, December 2005: “‘I truly believe the housing market will continue to expand. But rather than the double-digit price appreciation we’ve seen, we might see that drop to a 5 or 6 percent appreciation sometime toward the end of next year.’”

Nationwide, November 2006: “…the median price for a home sold dropped to $221,000 in October, a decline of 3.5 percent from a year ago. That was the biggest year-over-year price decline on record.”

Obviously this doesn’t prove anything about what is going to happen here in Seattle in the coming year. However, given the theory that the housing market in the Northwest lags California (or the nation as a whole) by about a year, I think it’s an interesting comparison.

At the very least it just goes to show you that the so-called “experts” either didn’t know what they were talking about, or were intentionally misleading the press. So why should we believe what they’re saying today regarding Seattle’s market, when the numbers seem to be saying something else?

(Emmet Pierce/Roger M. Showley, San Diego Union-Tribune, 10.18.2005)
(Emmet Pierce/Roger M. Showley, San Diego Union-Tribune, 11.12.2005)
(Martin Crutsinger, Associated Press, 11.28.2005)
(Charlie Herman, ABC News, 12.29.2005)
(Roger M. Showley, San Diego Union-Tribune, 12.13.2006)
(Martin Crutsinger, Associated Press, 11.29.2006)

I’m surprised that neither the Times nor the P-I chose to reprint this Associated Press article from yesterday: With few exceptions, Western real estate expected to stagnate. Why would they print an article with such a sullen headline? Because the Pacific Northwest is heralded as the “rare exception,” of course.

Although few experts predict home values will fall dramatically in 2007, many economists say prices throughout the West - particularly California and the Southwest - won’t improve for 12 to 18 months. The Pacific Northwest, where home prices are enjoying double-digit appreciation, is a rare exception.

Building booms in many markets over the past half-decade, combined with mortgage interest rates that have increased about 1 percent in the past year, have resulted in residential real estate stagnation in most markets.
…
One of the few exceptions to the nationwide slowdown is the Pacific Northwest.

In Washington, the number of houses sold in the third quarter of 2006 dropped 16 percent - but the median price surged nearly 12 percent from the same period last year, to $300,900, according to the Washington Center for Real Estate Research. In Seattle’s King County, the median price surged 14 percent to $432,600.

The dot-com bust of 2000 hammered the region, which shed a disproportionate number of manufacturing and technology jobs in the following half-decade. Homeowners there haven’t enjoyed the same run-up as investors elsewhere, said Glenn Crellin, director of the WCRER at Washington State University.

“Our real estate market essentially came to the party a little late. As a result, we’re going to be able to have a softer landing than many of the other communities nationwide,” Crellin said.

Speaking of the WCRER, while their latest report (pdf) shows building permits down across much of the state, King County is the glaring exception, with the number of units that building permits have been issued for up sixty-two percent. What was that they said about building booms leading to stagnation? Hmm…

I just love how skyrocketing real estate prices are always described in such positive terms in the media. “Home prices are enjoying double-digit appreciation,” and our market “came to the party a little late.” It’s always so fun when the price of goods increase faster than the consumers’ ability to pay!

We may have come late to the “party,” but apparently we’re not going to learn any lessons from the markets that were first to the party, and first to experience the hangover.

I also loved this little gem in the article:

About 97,000 Californians moved to Washington in 2005, making it the fourth most popular destination for Californians after Texas, Arizona and Nevada. Oregon was fifth, with more than 83,000 ex-Californians, the department reported.

California’s departing homeowners typically use their substantial equity to fund their next real estate investment. Although some Seattle and Portland residents grumble about “Californication,” the trend has helped keep home prices there rising, said Brian Kreick, broker for Lynnwood, Wash.-based Kreick Realty Group.

“I have clients from southern California who can’t believe what they can get up here for the money,” Kreick said. “I showed one guy a house in Redmond that was $830,000 and still needed a new kitchen. He thought it was a great deal.”

Oh yeah, that sounds like a great deal… What’s that saying about a fool and his money?

(Rachel Konrad, Associated Press, 12.11.2006)
(WCRER, Housing Market Snapshot, 11.2006)

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