Is it really different this time?

AJ7

So much talk about why the boom in Seattle real estate prices IS sustainable this time without a correction. All the talk is about the exodus from SF and then also China buyers. But the reality is stronger forces have existed in the past. In fact, lets look at the population stats



Overall population growth is nothing we haven't witnessed before.

The boom in California exiles is nothing we haven't witnessed before


We also saw this California exile rush during the last real estate bubble (first year on here is 1999 and ends in 2015...I know it's cut off in the picture)

Just food for thought as you listen to the narratives......Is it really different this time?

AJ7

Oh here is year by year population growth in raw numbers as well for population growth....


Although a point can be made for the concentration in central puget sound......but this is not something that hasn't been seen before....and as a % of population these shocks have been much greater in the past.

(as a note the central puget sound data also counts 2016 (which it counts as April 2015 - April 2016)

gooddeal

AJ7, thanks for taking the time to post the data. While predicated on only my limited experiences and observations it does look like the market is softening. Whether this means prices will plateau or even drop remains to be seen but I personally do feel that we're in a bubble. While the run up has been caused by supply constraints the reason for the lack of supply was not caused by a normal market but rather zoning and the purchase of RE as investments. The moment RE stops appreciating is the moment the investors sell their assets. Price increases, especially in the suburbs are already starting to soften so perhaps this bubble won't last much longer.