Case Shiller out for March - Seattle up 0.9%
A little less than I expected. About a month ago, I had done a simple model to predict how appreciation would tail off, based on historical seasonality and the overall trend. Here's what I posted then, with this month's actual performance against it
Mo Year Annual Month Annual Month
03 2007 10.0% (1.2%) 10.0% (0.9%)
04 2007 9.4% (1.0%)
05 2007 8.7% (0.9%)
06 2007 8.1% (1.1%)
07 2007 7.5% (0.6%)
08 2007 6.8% (0.4%)
09 2007 6.2% (0.0%)
10 2007 5.6% (-0.2%)
11 2007 4.9% (-0.6%)
12 2007 4.3% (-0.6%)
Let's see how I do...
Mo Year Annual Month Annual Month
03 2007 10.0% (1.2%) 10.0% (0.9%)
04 2007 9.4% (1.0%)
05 2007 8.7% (0.9%)
06 2007 8.1% (1.1%)
07 2007 7.5% (0.6%)
08 2007 6.8% (0.4%)
09 2007 6.2% (0.0%)
10 2007 5.6% (-0.2%)
11 2007 4.9% (-0.6%)
12 2007 4.3% (-0.6%)
Let's see how I do...
Comments
These predictions seem pretty reasonable... However, I suspect that once things start turning down later this year, that they might pick up steam quickly. In particular, if a recession really is building up, and it becomes visible by the fall, or spring 2008, then I think stocks are going to tank mighty fast. A tanking of stocks will precipitate a major acceleration of the real-estate downtrend as increasing numbers of people find it hard to believe in the "recovery around the corner".
In short: once stocks go south, Seattle real-estate is going to fall like a rock.
However, if you look over at altos research it is possible to get a peek at how median price performance is going even before the month is over.
If the screenshot below is accurate, then methinks the spamming this month about median price performance should be minimal. As of 5/27 - MoM performance appears flat to down. YoY Seattle will, of course, still be up - but at an ever decreasing pace...