king county historical housing price chart

mking

hi

i saw a chart somewhere on the site recently, that showed housing prices over time (a long time, 50 years or more).

i found the housing price run up in the lates 80s that flattend in 1990, right after i bought my first house.

i need to show that to my wife, to prove that houses dont always go up 10% or more a year. she has only been watching RE since 2001, and she has no context to show the last 6 years have been unusual from a historical perspective.

thanks! mike

sniglet

Keep in mind that historical data doesn't give a complete picture as to how disastrous our current real-estate downturn will become. Never before have lending standards become as loose as they have in the last 8 or 9 years, with a proliferation of negative amortization, interest only, and other "exotic" loans. The degree of scrutiny given to even prime loans is at an unprecedented low.

Thus, since the foundation for today's real-estate market is FAR weaker than ever, it's unravelling is bound to be far more severe than past experiences would indicate.

The_Tim

mking,

I assume you're referring to this post. Note that the chart shows King County SFH prices adjusted for inflation using the officially-reported CPI.

Also note that the factors used to calculate the officially-reported CPI has been significantly monkeyed-with through the years. For an alternate take on CPI, check out Shadow Government Statistics. If I were using their CPI data, the data from 1990 to the present would be less extreme.

Alan

Have her read this article for a long term historical perspective:
This Very, Very Old House

And have her read this article for the downside:
A Cautionary Housing Tale from Japan

mking

thanks!!!

that peak in 1990 followed by the drop and flat spot through 1996-

that was me!

i bought at the peak and sold in the flat. no pink ponies for me!

george

That chart makes it look like King County housing prices dropped a lot in the 1980s. Didn't I read in the local paper that Seattle area prices never drop? Is it difference how you factor in inflation?

The Tim wrote:

I assume you're referring to this post.

The_Tim

george wrote:

That chart makes it look like King County housing prices dropped a lot in the 1980s. Didn't I read in the local paper that Seattle area prices never drop? Is it difference how you factor in inflation?

I'm guessing you are referring to the article discussed in this post. Yes, the difference is inflation. The Times report conveniently disregarded inflation entirely. Their chart also conveniently begins in 1984 after most of the hangover from the late '70s runup had played out.

Technically they only claimed that prices haven't dropped since 1984. You have to go back to 1970 before you see the median decrease without inflation factored in.