If only we could tell if they are selling without waiting for a couple months after they drop off the MLS. It seems that the data that feeds the search engines no longer includes STIs.
I think sellers are starting to hold their breathe and are waiting to see whats next. No one seems to be buying and sellers don't want to lower prices tens of thousands of dollars because maybe some miracle happens and the bailout fixes everything. Like other people have been saying the pressure is building and eventually people are going to realize that Seattle won't be spared and the bailout isn't going to save us. Then the inventory will go back up and prices will start dropping even faster.
We are only some 30 listings or so more than where we were in mid-November last year (look at the earlier posts in this thread). Sure, it's higher than normal but not hugely greater than last year.
We are only some 30 listings or so more than where we were in mid-November last year (look at the earlier posts in this thread). Sure, it's higher than normal but not hugely greater than last year.
What percentage change in the number of houses for sale would you consider an indicator of a buyer's market?
We are only some 30 listings or so more than where we were in mid-November last year (look at the earlier posts in this thread). Sure, it's higher than normal but not hugely greater than last year.
What percentage change in the number of houses for sale would you consider an indicator of a buyer's market?
So if last year's inventory was a record, how much higher do you realistically expect it can or will go?
I remember back in the spring when people were predicting KC SFH inventory would go over 20k units. Things like that are just not going to happen - 50% increases on levels that are already 2x the norm.
I wouldn't call this a "buyer's market" right now - simply because if you buy now you are still looking at more losses - but I certainly wouldn't call it a sellers market!
So if last year's inventory was a record, how much higher do you realistically expect it can or will go?
I agree that there is likely some sort of limit as to how much the inventory will grow, even if the market continues to deteroriate. At some point many potential sellers will simply decide to not even put their homes on the market since they are unwilling to accept the market prices. A similar phenomena happened in the great depression, when sales just ground to a halt.
That said, the proportion of inventory which is "distressed" is likely to continue growing for quite some time. We will likely see REOs and short sale listings take up an ever bigger proportion of the over-all inventory (and sales). I think we will see foreclosures really pick up over the next couple years, and easily constitute 40% or 50% of all inventory.
The number of listings in 98008 took a dive in the new year. We are sitting at 128 listings for 98008 as of January 5th. Through the end of December we were in the 140 to 150 range, but a number of listings must have expired right at the end of the month.
Anecdotally, I notice that for sale signs have disappeared on some homes in our area which have been listed for a year or more, yet no one seems to have moved in and the properties appear to be vacant. My guess is that the owners have just decided to temporarily pull them off the market to re-list in the spring.
My guess is that the owners have just decided to temporarily pull them off the market to re-list in the spring.
I think a lot of people don't realize that Redfin tracks those as the total number of days on market. I get it if someone just wants a month off from worrying about it, but if they are looking for a stat reset, they need to find a new realtor who is familiar with all the tools buyers now have. In my experience, many realtors don't seem aware of all these new tools.
After dragging around in the 135 to low 140s for the winter, I now see that listings for 98008 are spiking up for the Spring. As of 4/5/2009 we have 157 listings for 98008 on ZipRealty.
I couldn't help but notice that on this very pleasant week-end (perhaps the first truly nice week-end of the year), the open house signs were up in force.
As of July 2, 2010, the number of listings on ZipRealty was 149. The number of listings for 98008 has been hovering in the 100 to 120 range for quite a long time, so it seems as if there is bit more listing activity now (or a decrease in sales).
Comments
153 is a lot. Buyer's market.
We are only some 30 listings or so more than where we were in mid-November last year (look at the earlier posts in this thread). Sure, it's higher than normal but not hugely greater than last year.
What percentage change in the number of houses for sale would you consider an indicator of a buyer's market?
So if last year's inventory was a record, how much higher do you realistically expect it can or will go?
I remember back in the spring when people were predicting KC SFH inventory would go over 20k units. Things like that are just not going to happen - 50% increases on levels that are already 2x the norm.
I wouldn't call this a "buyer's market" right now - simply because if you buy now you are still looking at more losses - but I certainly wouldn't call it a sellers market!
I agree that there is likely some sort of limit as to how much the inventory will grow, even if the market continues to deteroriate. At some point many potential sellers will simply decide to not even put their homes on the market since they are unwilling to accept the market prices. A similar phenomena happened in the great depression, when sales just ground to a halt.
That said, the proportion of inventory which is "distressed" is likely to continue growing for quite some time. We will likely see REOs and short sale listings take up an ever bigger proportion of the over-all inventory (and sales). I think we will see foreclosures really pick up over the next couple years, and easily constitute 40% or 50% of all inventory.
Anecdotally, I notice that for sale signs have disappeared on some homes in our area which have been listed for a year or more, yet no one seems to have moved in and the properties appear to be vacant. My guess is that the owners have just decided to temporarily pull them off the market to re-list in the spring.
I think a lot of people don't realize that Redfin tracks those as the total number of days on market. I get it if someone just wants a month off from worrying about it, but if they are looking for a stat reset, they need to find a new realtor who is familiar with all the tools buyers now have. In my experience, many realtors don't seem aware of all these new tools.
I couldn't help but notice that on this very pleasant week-end (perhaps the first truly nice week-end of the year), the open house signs were up in force.