And finally, from the silly statistics department, our office agents are busy again. In an office that averages 30 deals/week from about 75 agents, 6 weeks ago, we crashed and flat lined at 9 deals/wk for 4 straight weeks. The last 2 weeks have picked up the pace at 15 and 25 deals. This week, as well lots of transactions are coming in.
No wonder the "professionals" have been showing some anger issues recently. We'll see if the two-week recovery continues (of course, the last two weeks are two-thirds the normal pace for this RE office).
Well, the recent increase in sales is most likely due to those sellers who are fully aware that sales are dead from Nov-Feb and want or need to sell NOW.
Anybody remember those Lexus ads they run every Christmas with the new Lexus in the driveway with the ribbon on it? Well maybe this year a RE industry group should run one where people drive up in (the realtor's) Lexus and the house has the ribbon on it!
Hey guys, I found a way to make the Seattle Real Estate "Professionals" blog much more readable. You have to be running Firefox with Adblock Plus 0.7 or newer.
Open up your filter list: Tools -> Adblock Plus...
Click "Add filter..."
Paste the following: blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com#div(piStory)
Click "OK"
Now go reload the blog. I think you'll find it much more tolerable.
redmondjp made a great post on Greg Perry's blog. Note how he gets no direct response to his comments about median price vs median income and affordability.
Hey guys,
For what it's worth, the main thing I wanted to do is to introduce civility in discussion. There are many bright minds over here that have good things to say. I don't have to agree with the point of view.
You don't have to agree with my point of view.
Reasonable people can look at the same subject and disagree.
I'm one writer in the mix over there. While I may disagree with what someone has to say, I'll keep my comments around the message and do my best to keep the conversation civil. I think it's somewhat childish on both sides when the discussion turns to name calling, put downs and drive by slams. I like discussion. I've had great conversation on the blogs with people who I don't see eye to eye with, and have come away with respect because they're thoughts are well laid out.....and I've seen times when we've introduced good points to each other.
Also, for the record, it took awhile for me to get used to anon posters. Some of the writers over there are going through that now. Keep in mind that the PI blog was pretty much dead, we now have a core of about 6 or 7 contributors that are bringing life back to it. These writers have been there for about less than 3 months. I have no problem with anon at all now. For instance, I've had many discussions with Billirubin on several blogs and I have a respect for his point of view.
I'm sure that you'll find content over there that you can learn from, as you have content here that we can learn from.
What do you say we work to get on the solution side?
Oh for goodness sake, all this after a sincere effort to cross a line in a goodwill effort and appeal for civility. It's so amazing to me that some need to attempt to tear others down to feel good about themselves...........
But, I have had very good discussions with many of the regulars on this blog. I said it before, and I'll say it again, there are some good minds over here. I hope those interested in statistics enjoy the market information at http://www.alanpope.com, if you haven't already seen it.
Don't mind the peanut gallery Greg, they're just looking for a laugh even if it's at others expenses. Just brush it off. But it is kinda funny that there is another Greg Perry in Western Washington though. That other guy looks like a douche bag though, the picture of him standing on a ledge sending text messaging is way too tacky.
What we absolutely DON'T want to do is to send decent people (even if they ARE realtors!) packing. Good information exchange can be had. Not every realtor is a waste of space - Greg seems to be intelligent and experienced - the kind we should be encouraging to this forum.
I don't really think he answered (or was it posed) the question he thought he did, but Greg brought real numbers to his analysis. He faded a little into the Seattle is special cliches towards the end, but I think he might actually be interested in knowledge exchange.
I'm confused by what you were trying to prove with that post. You provided examples that MOM prices can fall during years with YOY price appreciation. Maybe I missed something, but that was the only concrete proof I saw in your post.
Here's the thing, I think pretty much everyone already agreed that was a fact. The mix of homes sold can change, some months (spring/summer) just sell better than others (winter/autumn), and even King County sells few enough homes in a month that it would not be surprising if outliers might be able to skew a statistic.
Okay, the biggest real story this month: plummeting sales, resulting in a record-high "months of supply." The fake story: dropping median prices—which is most likely at least partly an illusion (so far), which can be largely attributed to... you guessed it: the plummeting sales.
Not to kick a dead horse, but we agree that the median decline is misleading. If it's still happening in 6 months however, then it means something.
RCG,
You're referring back to "the post". It was actually written by Mack, not me. Honestly the only thing I was trying to accomplish in the followup was dialog. I've seen several examples in the last couple of weeks where battle lines were being drawn from both sides.
As I said before, I like the discussion.
I have a couple of disadvantages. You guys have been discussing issues here for a long time without me, so you're entrenched in your history here, and I'm not. I'm sure you guys have batted around median prices. There's a lot to debate there.
Personally, I've been tracking areas 550 (redmond), 560 (kirkland) and 600 (No Kirkland/Woodinville) for about some time now. (compiling absoprtion rates from NWMLS data)
Market absorption rates have been around forever. One of the reasons I like Alan Pope's work is that he's maintained a wonderful history of absorption rates. Until very recently, there has not been any kind of emphasis to train real estate agents on how to effectively use absorption rates. Our traditional CMA (comparative market analysis used to help a seller with value) primarily consisted of Actives, Pendings, and Solds. I do a conventional CMA AND supply absorption rate information right down to the neighborhood, and sometimes the house style.
An Eastside Windermere office is pioneering a program that supplies agents with weekly sales rates by price range. I can instantly see the pockets in the region that are still Sellers markets, Balanced markets, and Buyers markets. It's important to note that we still do not have wholesale agent understanding and buy in, but we're in a learning curve. I will say that the use of weekly absorption rates is a hell of a tool when negotiating with our clients (the seller) and when we're presenting an offer on behalf of a buyer. I used it just this week to score a huge reduction from a listing price for my buyer.
As far as the monthly medians.....
They rattle my head every month. I track the Eastside.
Here's a few things I (believe) to know about them in certainty:
1. Small samplings are always skewed, especially where there are high priced homes.
2. To have any validity at all, the same parameters have to exist month in/month out year in/year out.
3. They do need to be looked at MOM and YOY.
4. We CANNOT use anecdotal evidence of price reductions in the equation.
I sold new construction home earlier in Kirkland. In working with the builder, our plan at project inception, factoring appreciation at the time of going to market, was to price the house at $1.2-$1.25 mil. When the house was completed, the builder was exuberant and insistent on pricing at 1.4. We sat on the market waiting for his phantom equity to appear, and sadly it didn't. We ended up selling for $1.2 after a series of price reductions. This happens with almost every Seller in every market, especially transitioning markets. And we can't just blame the Sellers.....agents buy in to "dream equity" for the clients as well, or outright "buy" the listing at a higher price to get the deal. The price reductions bring the listing its proper value.
I've bloviated far longer than I intended to. I'll end by saying that information is everywhere. Much of the anecdotal information used to prove our points is really crap. I'll admit it's fun occasionally to debate crap, but it's still crap. I know you guys are looking for quality information, that's why I sent you over to the Alan Pope site.
because the C/S index is pretty broad, you can't take it down to the neighborhood level - but the predictions of the model have thus far held up pretty well.
because the C/S index is pretty broad, you can't take it down to the neighborhood level - but the predictions of the model have thus far held up pretty well.
Deejavoh, I remember that post and it does seem like you have a good model there. Hopefully better than the models used to value subprime mortgage securities, but that's another discussion.
Oh wise model, please remind us all how the future will pan out over the next 12 months. Thanks!
Greg, I appreciate your efforts to mend the fence, as it were, between this blog/forum and the PI blog, particularly after some of the recent volleys that have been pitched. There are always going to be snide and derisive remarks from both sides unfortunately, but your efforts at civil and educational discourse are indeed appreciated.
Comments
No wonder the "professionals" have been showing some anger issues recently. We'll see if the two-week recovery continues (of course, the last two weeks are two-thirds the normal pace for this RE office).
Anybody remember those Lexus ads they run every Christmas with the new Lexus in the driveway with the ribbon on it? Well maybe this year a RE industry group should run one where people drive up in (the realtor's) Lexus and the house has the ribbon on it!
Open up your filter list: Tools -> Adblock Plus...
Click "Add filter..."
Paste the following: blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com#div(piStory)
Click "OK"
Now go reload the blog. I think you'll find it much more tolerable.
http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/real ... 123809.asp
posted on the RE Prof PI blog.
I'm asking everyone (agents and bubblebloggers) to bring their A game. have thought out arguments and leave insults, drive bys and bravado behind.
Anyone game?
Greg Perry
puhleeze. nothing at the end of the link except notions any fool can learn to set aside by reading SBB a little deeper. no feedium trollio.
His method of discussion is generally derision or dismissal.
He seems like a smart guy, and I find him a little funny, but I don't think he quite gets this blogging thing.
blocks all the content : :P
"Discussion" is such a misleading term for what happens on that particular blog. Don't sweat it DJO. Here's the synopsis.
Greg pulled out a bunch of stats, paraded them around, and then abruptly declared it proof that no real estate bubble exists.
redmondjp made a great post on Greg Perry's blog. Note how he gets no direct response to his comments about median price vs median income and affordability.
duder made some excellent points also
For what it's worth, the main thing I wanted to do is to introduce civility in discussion. There are many bright minds over here that have good things to say. I don't have to agree with the point of view.
You don't have to agree with my point of view.
Reasonable people can look at the same subject and disagree.
I'm one writer in the mix over there. While I may disagree with what someone has to say, I'll keep my comments around the message and do my best to keep the conversation civil. I think it's somewhat childish on both sides when the discussion turns to name calling, put downs and drive by slams. I like discussion. I've had great conversation on the blogs with people who I don't see eye to eye with, and have come away with respect because they're thoughts are well laid out.....and I've seen times when we've introduced good points to each other.
Also, for the record, it took awhile for me to get used to anon posters. Some of the writers over there are going through that now. Keep in mind that the PI blog was pretty much dead, we now have a core of about 6 or 7 contributors that are bringing life back to it. These writers have been there for about less than 3 months. I have no problem with anon at all now. For instance, I've had many discussions with Billirubin on several blogs and I have a respect for his point of view.
I'm sure that you'll find content over there that you can learn from, as you have content here that we can learn from.
What do you say we work to get on the solution side?
I'm going to post this on both blogs.
Greg Perry
Funny how you probably get half of your business being the "other" Greg Perry, feeding off the real Greg Perry.
http://www.gregperry.com/
weren't u the official real estate agent of Seahawks? oh wait, that's the other Greg Perry. I bet you didn't mind though.
But, I have had very good discussions with many of the regulars on this blog. I said it before, and I'll say it again, there are some good minds over here. I hope those interested in statistics enjoy the market information at http://www.alanpope.com, if you haven't already seen it.
Greg Perry
Here's my favorite
that spread between inventory and sales looks a bit ominous, no? especially in september.
Give the guy a break.
I don't really think he answered (or was it posed) the question he thought he did, but Greg brought real numbers to his analysis. He faded a little into the Seattle is special cliches towards the end, but I think he might actually be interested in knowledge exchange.
So I'll give you a break Greg.
I won't shy from the debate, however I will stay on the high road. There may be some debates that we'll have to agree to disagree, but it's all good.
I'm confused by what you were trying to prove with that post. You provided examples that MOM prices can fall during years with YOY price appreciation. Maybe I missed something, but that was the only concrete proof I saw in your post.
Here's the thing, I think pretty much everyone already agreed that was a fact. The mix of homes sold can change, some months (spring/summer) just sell better than others (winter/autumn), and even King County sells few enough homes in a month that it would not be surprising if outliers might be able to skew a statistic.
In fact, when the news came out Seattle Bubble had this to say:
Not to kick a dead horse, but we agree that the median decline is misleading. If it's still happening in 6 months however, then it means something.
You're referring back to "the post". It was actually written by Mack, not me. Honestly the only thing I was trying to accomplish in the followup was dialog. I've seen several examples in the last couple of weeks where battle lines were being drawn from both sides.
As I said before, I like the discussion.
I have a couple of disadvantages. You guys have been discussing issues here for a long time without me, so you're entrenched in your history here, and I'm not. I'm sure you guys have batted around median prices. There's a lot to debate there.
To give you an idea on how I watch the markets, go to this post:
http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/real ... 122563.asp
Personally, I've been tracking areas 550 (redmond), 560 (kirkland) and 600 (No Kirkland/Woodinville) for about some time now. (compiling absoprtion rates from NWMLS data)
Market absorption rates have been around forever. One of the reasons I like Alan Pope's work is that he's maintained a wonderful history of absorption rates. Until very recently, there has not been any kind of emphasis to train real estate agents on how to effectively use absorption rates. Our traditional CMA (comparative market analysis used to help a seller with value) primarily consisted of Actives, Pendings, and Solds. I do a conventional CMA AND supply absorption rate information right down to the neighborhood, and sometimes the house style.
An Eastside Windermere office is pioneering a program that supplies agents with weekly sales rates by price range. I can instantly see the pockets in the region that are still Sellers markets, Balanced markets, and Buyers markets. It's important to note that we still do not have wholesale agent understanding and buy in, but we're in a learning curve. I will say that the use of weekly absorption rates is a hell of a tool when negotiating with our clients (the seller) and when we're presenting an offer on behalf of a buyer. I used it just this week to score a huge reduction from a listing price for my buyer.
As far as the monthly medians.....
They rattle my head every month. I track the Eastside.
Here's a few things I (believe) to know about them in certainty:
1. Small samplings are always skewed, especially where there are high priced homes.
2. To have any validity at all, the same parameters have to exist month in/month out year in/year out.
3. They do need to be looked at MOM and YOY.
4. We CANNOT use anecdotal evidence of price reductions in the equation.
I sold new construction home earlier in Kirkland. In working with the builder, our plan at project inception, factoring appreciation at the time of going to market, was to price the house at $1.2-$1.25 mil. When the house was completed, the builder was exuberant and insistent on pricing at 1.4. We sat on the market waiting for his phantom equity to appear, and sadly it didn't. We ended up selling for $1.2 after a series of price reductions. This happens with almost every Seller in every market, especially transitioning markets. And we can't just blame the Sellers.....agents buy in to "dream equity" for the clients as well, or outright "buy" the listing at a higher price to get the deal. The price reductions bring the listing its proper value.
I've bloviated far longer than I intended to. I'll end by saying that information is everywhere. Much of the anecdotal information used to prove our points is really crap. I'll admit it's fun occasionally to debate crap, but it's still crap. I know you guys are looking for quality information, that's why I sent you over to the Alan Pope site.
http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2007/06/1 ... y-matters/
because the C/S index is pretty broad, you can't take it down to the neighborhood level - but the predictions of the model have thus far held up pretty well.
Deejavoh, I remember that post and it does seem like you have a good model there. Hopefully better than the models used to value subprime mortgage securities, but that's another discussion.
Oh wise model, please remind us all how the future will pan out over the next 12 months. Thanks!