My reponse was too long in the thread so I thought I’d throw it here for people to debate.
Well, Sue hates me. Actually, just teasing. But, she thinks that my picture of Mt. Rainier is rather boring and may not add to this blog. Geez, who couldn’t take a shot of Mt. Rainier with a warm and clear evening like we enjoyed. It was staring me right in the face and I have a good interest in photography even though I’m a beginner.
Sue and others would like to bring up actual cases of problematic loans, days on market, price reductions etc….and cases where people have a probability to go delinquent. I’ll tap more into this discussion as the blog evolves.
Two key points to internalize:
1) The first is that a change in market psychology is well underway here locally. For example, just months ago, as late as Fall of 2005, our market had virtually no price reductions at all. It wasn’t on the radar. The very fact that we have price reductions in listing prices confirms that the real estate community understands this. Price reductions are now common place, incentives from builders are common place and there are some instances where sellers are offering more of a sales commission than normal. For example, a listing may give notice that there is a sales commission bonus of $1000, if a full price offer is accepted by a specific date.
The market change is being felt by Realtors and allied real estate professionals we work with out in the market place. It is being talked about. It is being addressed in staff meetings and is being discussed by various national r.e. speakers that cater to the Realtor community.
One of the very first clues of this was the title of seminar put on in Seattle from national real estate sales trainer, Brian Buffini, earlier this year: “how to survive in a changing market.” While I’m not a licensed agent, it was telling that a sought after sales trainer was even discussing the market change to those he serves.
2) My gut feeling is that there is a large pool of potential buyers that have no idea of the realities of the market. This is just an observation and no fault of their own. The world (and I’ll have tomatoes thrown at me about this from our friends in the business) does not revolve around me, real estate and sales folks. People have lives to live, work to do, family to tend to, people to visit, and real estate is NOT on the radar in the manner in which many believe.
People are worried about other things: car payments, vacations, a sick family member, world events (I’m concerned about the impact of middle east turmoil for one), sporting events, school, etc…
The take away here is that the psychology is changing, and there is a new medium, called blogging, that when real estate is on the radar for consumers, they can get information that they did not have readily available during the last bona fide market change in our area. And this new medium will continue to have a major impact on the scale and swiftness of the unraveling of the markets across the country.