Here’s S-Crow’s Avatar/mug. Yep, sweater season.
Regarding Inventory
Although I have noticed homes dropping off the market in my neck of the woods in Snohomish Co, generally speaking, for semi-serious sellers, early and mid-October is a bit soon to pull the property off the market. I can understand if it was during the full holiday season from a few days prior to Thanksgiving through New Years. But, if you pull out this soon, the potential for back-firing increases if the thought process is “I’ll try again after the Holidays.” Many others will do the same. Maybe a Realtor can chime in on the efficacy of this reasoning.
I have a sense though that some of these homes going off the market today, either by expiring, Realtors giving back the listing, or mutually taking the home off the market, are being replaced by others. No hard Data, but maybe a Realtor can confirm this.
That being said, one of the things I’ll be curious to follow is if inventory as a whole (system wide) drops without replenishment. If we maintain the current inventory levels going forward, then I would guess the region will be in for quite an increase after Jan. 1, 2008. If that happens, then we will see further downward pressure on prices. It is also important to not forget about the underground market of FSBO’s. I read somewhere that this market is roughly 10% of the inventory/sales that are not accounted for by regional MLS statistics across the country. So in theory, there are a lot more homes on the market than reported.
Remember, many agents suggest to their clients that they can try again after the New Year. All these homes that expired or were mutally taken off-market will come back on the market with the same agent or another real estate company. And, all those reading about market struggles across the country who are holding off until after the first of the year are going to be competing with like-minded-soon-to-be sellers. On balance, my sense is that we are going to see a lot more inventory come on the market after the year.
The list price reductions appears to be on cruise control right now, along with incentives for closing cost contributions, rate buy downs, etc..
Over at Rain City Guide, Rhonda Porter mentioned that 30 yr fixed rates are now under 6% again. That is probably going to move some folks to write earnest money checks for a purchase or refinance.
Musings
- I went to the Everett Silvertips game last week with Steve Hatloe of very long time Everett business institution Hatloe’s Interiors/Carpet One. Naturally his business is also dependant upon housing and household improving. Prior to the game he asked me about if he was the only one ‘out there’ who thought to himself, “how are people doing it?” I looked back and said, “gosh, that makes two of us. But, since you asked………”
- Someone asked me a while ago what it’s like to be in escrow? I said, “like a referee.” We try to make sure everyones obligations are met, but sometimes the referee get’s the ire of one’s temper.
Here’s a good example: