If you thought last month’s reporting was fun, just wait till you get a load of the goomy tone of the latest wave of articles.
I find it interesting that the NWMLS chose to release the statistics so late in the day yesterday, on the fourth business day of the month (rather than the fifth, which has been the recent standard). It’s probably just a coincidence, but I can’t help wonder whether it might have something to do with the fact that the election results are sure to grab all the headlines today, pushing the nasty real estate news out of the spotlight…
Kirsten Grind, Seattle Times:
Local home prices slide
The median price of homes sold in King County declined last month compared with a year ago — the first year-over-year decline since the nationwide recession in the early 1990s.
As supply outpaced demand, the median price of all homes — single-family houses and condos — dropped 1 percent to $387,500 from $391,300 a year ago, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service report for October, released Tuesday.
…
Joe Spencer, president of John L. Scott and director of the Northwest MLS, said the housing market is in the adjustment period of a typical real-estate cycle, which usually means a six- to seven-year boom followed by a two- to three-year downturn.
…
“I really believe based on historical numbers that 2008 will be the low point in the market here, depending on what area you’re looking at, and then we’ll start that slow climb back up,” Spencer said.
…
Until now, the Puget Sound real-estate market has been strong, especially compared with the rest of the country.
I know, right? I mean, who could have possibly seen this coming?
Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I:
Home prices down again — is it time to buy?
Many prospective Seattle home buyers welcome signs that prices are declining.
“I think (prices) are way out of sight, and I’m glad to see they’re finally coming down,” said Steve Noah, while outside a Capitol Hill open house in October.
The latest evidence came Tuesday, when the Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported that the typical home in Seattle and King County sold for less in October than it did during the same month in 2006. It was the second consecutive year-to-year decline in median price for Seattle and the first for the county after more than five years of monthly price increases, year over year.
Meanwhile, the city and county continued to have fewer sales and many more homes languishing on the market than a year earlier.
The signs of a slowing market locally, combined with news of more serious declines in other parts of the country, clearly have made some local buyers cautious.
“I wouldn’t want to overpay for a house right now,” said Jessica Bora, who has been looking at homes with her husband, Gaurav, for about a year.
Noah, who has been looking at homes for about two years, thinks prices are still too high.
“I think in the next year that we’ll see some serious readjustments,” he said. “I probably wouldn’t buy right now.”
I couldn’t agree more.
Many agents note that the market always cools in the fall. But they also say things really slowed in August, because many buyers had a hard time getting financing.
“I think what happened in August moved us into fall early,” said Jim Paddleford of Windermere Real Estate. “A lot of loan programs disappeared overnight.”
Some agents complain that buyers have unrealistic expectations for bargains in Seattle based on stories about the national housing downturn. But Gene Seguin of Windermere Real Estate sees another problem.
“Sellers don’t want to let go of controlling the market,” he said.
Many sellers think about listing their home for six months before actually doing it, meaning the price they can get now is 3 percent to 5 percent lower than what they could have when they first considered selling, Seguin said. “That’s a very tough pill to swallow.”
But, he said, sellers are catching on and starting to set their prices for the current market.
It’s pretty obvious from even a cursory look at the data that what we’re seeing is not the typical seasonal fall/winter slowdown. The sooner home sellers get a clue, the better.
Devona Wells, Tacoma News Tribune:
Pierce home prices drop again
Pierce County home prices dipped again in October, marking the second consecutive month of year-over-year decreases as sales remained down.
The county’s median price for a home, including houses and condos, in October was $266,157 – a 1.4 percent drop from the same month in 2006, according to numbers released Tuesday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
At the same time, 33 percent more homes were for sale than in October 2006, though the number has been on the decline since August.
The county’s downturn in prices comes as many markets around the country are depreciating at far steeper rates and with tens of thousands more homes for sale.
Pat Maddock, a real estate agent and president of the Tacoma-Pierce County Association of Realtors, emphasized the advantage buyers hold today, particularly with the county’s inventory levels.
“I hate to quote Donald Trump, but Donald said the other day, ‘If I were you, I’d buy everything I can get my hands on.’ Nobody knows when it’s going to kick back up or level off,” Maddock said.
Uh-huh… riiight… You know they’re getting desperate when the best argument they can come up with is to quote Donald Trump.
Mike Benbow, Everett Herald:
Home prices start falling in region
Home sales continued to fall in the Puget Sound area in October, and for the first time in many communities, prices went with them, according to statistics released Tuesday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
That wasn’t the case in Snohomish County, which recorded a combined median price for single-family homes and condominiums of $352,874 in October, a nearly 6 percent increase from October 2006.
…
Listing service director Joe Spencer, president of John L. Scott, said the numbers are following the typical pattern of home prices in the region: a two-year slump followed by a period of six to seven years of strong sales and rising prices.
“Combine this with low interest rates and a healthy supply of homes to choose from and you have yourself the perfect buyer’s market,” he said.
It’s always the perfect time to buy! As far as the Snohomish median, sales were down 36% from a year ago, with fewer than 700 single-family homes being sold in October compared to nearly 1,100 last year. When the number of sales is off by that much, the median can’t really be trusted to tell us anything useful, as I’ve been saying in King County for the last few months.
Rolf Boone, The Olympian:
Fewer houses sold
October home sales in Thurston County fell 13 percent from a year ago, but demand for homes was strong enough that the median price rose four percent in the same period, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
Northwest MLS area services manager Jerry Wilkins said the South Sound housing market consistently has bucked national trends.
“I still see good home price appreciation,” he said. The South Sound market is stronger than others around the nation, Wilkins said.
It seems like a bit of a stretch to me to call the local market activity “bucking” the national trend. In fact, the local market is exactly following the trends of increasing inventory and decreasing sales, and is only slightly behind the curve on the decreasing sales prices.
Methinks that some of the local real estate professionals have confused these two:
(Kirsten Grind, Seattle Times, 11.06.2007)
(Kirsten Grind, Seattle Times, 11.07.2007)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 11.06.2007)
(Devona Wells, Tacoma News Tribune, 11.07.2007)
(Mike Benbow, Everett Herald, 11.07.2007)
(Rolf Boone, Olympian, 11.07.2007)