Here’s the latest update on months of supply, or “absorption rates” for the 30 NWMLS areas in King County. For an explanation of what months of supply means, please refer to the original neighborhood MOS breakdown post.
Remember: Over 6 MOS is a buyer’s market, which gives buyers more negotiating power, but doesn’t mean homes are priced attractively for buyers or that it’s a good time to buy. Before this year, the longest that King County as a whole has sustained a MOS above 6 was 4-5 months in the winter of 1994-1995. May MOS for King County came in at 6.97 (up 0.76 points from April), bringing the current run to nine months.
In the graphs below, you’re looking at the MOS for the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for the ten-month period of July 2007 through May 2008. The bar graph is centered vertically on 6.0 MOS, so that it is easier to visually tell the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market (i.e. – shorter bars mean a more balanced market). Each graph again has the same scale on the vertical axis and has the King County aggregate figure plotted in red, so they can be easily compared.
Unfortunately I haven’t yet gotten the fancy color-coded maps ready, but I did make some improvements to the enhanced area map, which can now be found on this page. My goal is to have interactive color-coded maps for next month’s neighborhood update post.
Note: Area 100 MOS was over 21 in January, and has been clipped.
Note: For Area 701 (Downtown Seattle) we’re using condo data.
Nothing too surprising in this month’s data. The North Seattle neighborhoods that make up 705 and 710 (Ballard, Greenlake, Greenwood, Lake City, Northgate, Wedgewood, etc.) continue to show unusual resilience, coming in at 3.81 and 4.00 MOS. Last month eleven neighborhoods were below 6.0 MOS. This month only six hold that title.
Seattle proper’s collective MOS continues to come in below 6.0, but not by much. Last month it crept up to 5.18, still more than twice what it was a year prior at 2.35.
Last month there were six neighborhoods with excessive MOS over 10.0, with three of those coming on the Eastside. As a whole, the Eastside is still a tough place to be selling a home, with a collective MOS of 8.33, and only one area below 6.0 MOS (550: Redmond, Carnation), and all other areas coming in higher than the county-wide average.
Here’s the bonus graph, which lets you directly compare each area’s MOS to its value one year ago. May 2007 is in red, and 2008 is in blue.
Every area was more of a buyer’s market in April than it was at this time last year, with MOS doubling in many regions.
The three toughest markets for sellers were Medina / Clyde Hill / W. Bellevue (520) at 13.70, Jovita/West Hill Auburn (100) at 11.05, and Vashon Island (800) at 10.82. 520 continues to make records, now in its ninth straight month of 10+ MOS.
The three best markets for sellers as of last month were Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 3.81, North Seattle (710) at 4.00, and Redmond / Carnation (550) at 4.71. Ballard: the pink pony’s last stand.