Jon Talton wrote a great article for the Times a few days ago that goes deeper than the usual “Boeing! Microsoft! Pink Ponies!” type articles and explores all the ways the Seattle region is exposed to the slowing economy: For local economy, it’ll be a long slog.
…the national slowdown is finally hitting the Puget Sound region, slowing job creation as well as pressuring would-be home-sellers, the construction industry and credit-strapped homeowners.
As recently as last year, employment growth here was more than twice the national average, according to Dick Conway, a Seattle economist and co-publisher of the Puget Sound Economic Forecaster. Now, he forecasts it will decelerate from a peak of 3.2 percent in the first quarter of 2007 to less than 2 percent this year. On a quarter-to-quarter basis, job creation could be essentially flat, something backed up by recent state job numbers.
It’s nice to read a somewhat realistic article once in a while, instead of constantly being fed the feel-good fluff stories about how special and different we are in Seattle.
What are the chances of a state like Washington… avoiding a recession?
…the economic model of Pacific Northwest economies maintained by Jeremy Piger, associate professor of economics at the University of Oregon, showed a 99.4 percent chance of recession for Washington in its latest reading. The model is based on data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
So you’re telling me there’s a chance… Yeah!
My one problem is that Talton quotes Dick Conway as some sort of expert on the local economy and housing.
“The picture did change substantially with housing,” Conway said. “Ours held up pretty well for a while. We’ve finally succumbed.” Price appreciation has stalled and inventory is swelling as potential buyers try to time the bottom of the already favorable market.
…
Conway compares today’s climate to 2001’s and uses the term “rubber-band effect.” The faster you drop into recession, the faster you bounce out. This has been a slow slide. He said the Puget Sound region may touch bottom in the next few months and begin growing again.
I’m not sure why he would be quoting Dick Conway as any sort of expert, considering how off base he has been with his 2008 real estate predictions so far this year.
Conway anticipates average Puget Sound-region home prices will decline less than 1 percent next year, and sales will be down about 5 percent, before rebounding in 2008.
Let’s see… According to NWMLS July data, “Puget Sound-region” (King, Pierce, Snohomish, Kitsap, & Thurston Counties) average prices are already down nearly 5 percent, while sales are down over 35 percent. Even if you just look at King/Pierce/Snohomish, prices are down over 3 percent and sales have dropped 37 percent.
The bottom line seems to be that the local economy is not bulletproof, despite what the papers and real estate agents have been saying for the last few years.
(Jon Talton, Seattle Times, 08.26.2008)