It’s time once again for an update on the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to September data,
Down 1.4% August to September.
Down 9.8% YOY.
Down 10.1% from the July 2007 peak
Last year prices fell 0.25% from August to September and year-over-year prices were up 4.7%.
Here’s the usual graph, with L.A. & San Diego offset from Seattle & Portland by 17 months. Portland has now outperformed Seattle on a YOY basis for 10 months, dropping 8.6% YOY in September.
Note: This graph is not intended to be predictive. It is for entertainment purposes only.
Here’s the graph of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities:
In September, eight of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities experienced smaller year-over-year drops than Seattle (the same as August). Dallas at -2.8%, Charlotte at -3.5%, Denver at -5.4%, Boston at -5.7%, Cleveland at -6.4, New York at -7.3%, Portland at -8.6%, and Atlanta at -9.5%. Phoenix just barely edged out Las Vegas again for the largest year-over-year drop, with prices in both those cities falling over 31% in a single year.
Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve cities whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.
In the fourteen months since the price peak in Seattle prices have declined approximately 10.1%. The city with the most similar degree of price drops to Seattle fourteen months after its respective peak was Las Vegas.
Here’s the “rewind” chart. The horizontal range is selected to go back just far enough to find the last time that Seattle’s HPI was as low as it is now. This gives us a clean visual of just how far back prices have retreated in terms of months.
Seattle’s Case-Shiller value for September 2008 of 172.84 was fairly close to its April 2006 value of 172.28. Prices have now “rewound” two years and five months.
Check back tomorrow for a post on the Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.
(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 11.25.2008)