Time (or past time) to take a look at December’s “Months of Supply” for the 30 NWMLS areas in King County. For an explanation of what months of supply means, please refer to the original neighborhood MOS breakdown post. Also, view a map of these areas here.
December MOS for King County as a whole came in at yet another record-high 9.56 (compared to 7.54 for December 2007 and 8.75 for November), bringing the record run of 6+ MOS to sixteen months.
In the graphs below, you’re looking at the MOS for the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for the one-year period of January 2008 through December 2008. The bar graph is centered vertically on 6.0 MOS, so that it is easier to visually tell the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market (i.e. – shorter bars mean a more balanced market). I had been trying to keep the graphs on the same vertical scale, but with MOS skyrocketing in a handful of areas in the Eastside and Vashon, I gave up on that. The charts still all have the King County aggregate figure plotted in red on the far right.
Note that there are a few areas that appear to have no bar at all for a given month—this represents an MOS value at or close to 6.0. Also keep in mind that whatever the reason, pending sales have become increasingly disconnected from closed sales recently, which means that these statistics are likely understating the magnitude of the “buyer’s market.”
We’ll start off with the chart that lets you directly compare each area’s MOS to its value one year ago. December 2007 is in red, and 2008 is in blue.
Following below are the breakouts for SW King, SE King, Seattle, N King, and the Eastside, as well as a summary of this month’s data.
Note: Area 100 (Jovita/West Hill Auburn) was over 21 in January, and has been clipped.
Note: For Area 701 (Downtown Seattle) we’re using condo data.
In December only one area in King County registered as a “seller’s market” with under 6.0 MOS—705 (Ballard, Greenlake, Greenwood). Even 710 (NE Seattle: Wedgewood, Lake City, etc.) finally edged over 6, coming in at 6.22.
The cumulative MOS for Seattle proper continued to push further into buyer’s market territory, coming in at 7.59 in December. The Eastside as a whole shot back up again month-to-month to a new record high of 13.04.
Six of thirty neighborhoods trended more toward a seller’s market than a year ago. Twelve neighborhoods were above 10 MOS, firmly in buyer’s market territory (one more than last month).
The three toughest markets for sellers were Medina / Clyde Hill / W. Bellevue (520) at 29.22 (over two years), Mercer Island (510) at 25.80, and Vashon Island at 19.67. 520 continues its 10+ MOS streak, now at 16 months. Psst… Hey Bill… bet you can drive some pretty hard bargains right about now if you’re looking to expand your estate…
The three best markets for sellers as of last month were: Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 5.44, North Seattle (710) at 6.22, and Jovita/West Hill Auburn (100) at 6.84. The “best markets for sellers” list is starting to seem like a “most slender hippopotamus” contest or something…