Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.
Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:
- Low Tier: < $274,582
- Mid Tier: $274,582 – $404,443
- Hi Tier: > $404,443
The tier breakpoints continued to shift upward ever so slightly in August, rising 0.3% to 0.4% while the overall index rose just 0.1%. This would seem to point to a continuing shift in the sales mix of homes away from the low end toward the high end, which would also help explain why the overall index rose only 0.1% when the low tier rose 0.5%.
First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through August 2009.
The low tier rose 0.5% month-to-month, while the middle tier fell 0.3%, and the high tier was virtually flat. The “rewind” situation held steady again, with low tier sitting about where it was in April 2005 and the middle and the high tiers at May 2005 levels.
Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through August 2009.
With a month-to-month increase, the low tier’s year-over-year picture improved the most in August. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of August – Low: -16.2%, Med: -13.6%, Hi: -14.9%.
Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.
So far I am still pretty unimpressed with this “recovery.” With nearly half a year of flatline prices in Seattle, it is still unclear whether this is the bottom, or merely an extended lull on the way to the real bottom. Personally, my money’s on the latter.
(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 10.27.2009)