As regular readers of Seattle Bubble are aware, one of the most popular (and simultaneously one of the most controversial) charts we publish on a regular basis is the “Behind the Cycle” graph, which shows the year-over-year changes in Seattle and Portland’s Case-Shiller HPIs offset by 17 months from the YOY changes in the HPIs…
Year: 2009
Bottom-Calling: Affordability Index Forecast
The affordability index is something we have visited multiple times in the past on these pages. If the concept is new to you, or you just feel like a quick refresher, I recommend you check out the following posts: Seattle Soft Landing: Do The Math A Question Of Affordability Revisiting Seattle’s Soft Landing King County…
Foreclosure Rescue Plan Open Thread
Here’s a good summary of Obama’s proposed foreclosure rescue plan from our friends over at Calculated Risk. This plan rewards those homebuyers who speculated with excessive leverage. I think this is a mistake. Another problem with Part 2 is that this lowers the interest rate for borrowers far underwater, but other than the $1,000 per…
Bottom-Calling: Simple Mirror Forecast
As was noted back in October, graphs of the rise and fall of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index for a number of markets (e.g. San Diego and Seattle) is surprisingly symmetrical. I’ll be the first to admit that this method hardly qualifies as a rigorous scientific analysis of price trends. The apparent relationship between the…
Bottom-Calling: Dollars per Square Foot Linear Forecast
For our next forecast, let’s refer to a dataset that we’ve only gone to once before on Seattle Bubble: Radar Logic’s Residential Property Index. Radar Logic analyzes home sales and produces a running index of sale prices in the Seattle metro area in terms of dollars per square foot. Here are our basic assumptions for…