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Case-Shiller Tiers: Low Tier Still Flatlining

Posted on February 24, 2010 by The Tim

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

  • Low Tier: < $266,240
  • Mid Tier: $266,240 – $398,051
  • Hi Tier: > $398,051

The breakpoints for the tiers fell again in December, declining over 1%.

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through December 2009.

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

The low and middle tiers fell 0.4% month-to-month and the high tier dropped 0.9%. The middle and high tiers both hit a new post-peak low, while the low tier sits slightly higher than its March 2009 low.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through December 2009.

Case-Shiller HPI - YOY Change in Seattle Tiers

The year-over-year situation improved slightly again in all three tiers. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of October – Low: -7.6%, Med: -7.4%, Hi: -8.3%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Case-Shiller: Decline from Peak - Seattle Tiers

After jumping out ahead, the low tier still seems to be flatlining, but the high and middle tiers are taking clear downward turns the last two months to catch up.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 02.23.2010)

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Case-Shiller: Seattle Prices Headed South for Winter
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