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Case-Shiller: Flat is the New Up

Posted on May 25, 2010May 25, 2010 by The Tim

Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to March data,

Up 0.1% February to March.
Down 3.6% YOY.
Down 25.3% from the July 2007 peak

Last year prices fell 2.0% from February to March and year-over-year prices were down 16.4%.

Quick check: Is Bloomberg still running nonsense false headlines? Home Prices in U.S. Cities Rose 2.3% in March. Yup. In reality home prices were up month-to-month in only six cities, and year-to-year in ten cities.

Anyway, here’s our offset graph—the same graph we post every month—with L.A. & San Diego time-shifted from Seattle & Portland by 17 months. All four cities climbed a little more in March, with San Diego grabbing the biggest gain. Portland came in at -2.8%, Los Angeles at +6.0%, and San Diego at +10.8%, still all better than Seattle.

Case-Shiller HPI: West Coast

Note: This graph is not intended to be predictive. It is for entertainment purposes only.

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including interactive charts of all 20 cities.

Here’s an interactive graph of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities, courtesy of Tableau Software (check and un-check the boxes on the right):

Powered by Tableau

Ten of thirty Case-Shiller-tracked cities are now in positive YOY territory: Phoenix, Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Denver, Washington DC, Boston, Minneapolis, Cleveland, and Dallas.

In March, sixteen of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities experienced smaller year-over-year drops (or saw year-over-year increases) than Seattle (one less than February). San Francisco at +16.2, San Diego at +10.8%, Cleveland at +6.7%, Minneapolis at +6.5%, Los Angeles at +6.0%, Washington, DC at +5.6%, Denver at +4.1%, Boston at +3.8%, Dallas at +3.0%, Phoenix at +2.4%, Atlanta at -1.3%, Miami at -1.7%, Chicago at -2.3%, New York at -2.4%, Portland at -2.8%, and Tampa at -3.5%.

Only three cities experienced home prices falling faster year-over-year than Seattle in March: Charlotte, Detroit, and Las Vegas.

Here’s an interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty cities through March.

Powered by Tableau

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve cities whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

Case-Shiller HPI: Decline From Peak

In the thirty-one months since the price peak in Seattle prices have declined 25.3%, basically the same as last month.

Here’s a complementary chart to that last one. This one shows the total change in the index since last March for the same twelve markets as the peak decline chart.

Case-Shiller HPI: Bounce Since March 2009

San Diego is still bouncing, and San Francisco had a nice little bump there in March, but everyone else appears to be fizzling.

Check back tomorrow for a post on the Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 05.25.2010)

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Still a “Buyer’s Market” in Many Neighborhoods
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Case-Shiller Tiers: Seattle Home Tiers Mixed in March

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