Time for our monthly stats preview now that June is behind us. Most of the charts below are based on broad county-wide data that is available through a simple search of King County Records. If you have additional stats you’d like to see in the preview, drop a line in the comments and I’ll see what I can do.
Here’s your preview of June’s foreclosure and home sale stats:
First up, total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with the county:
Warranty Deeds edged up 4% from May, (compared to a 33% MOM increase May to June 2009). We’re still up YOY, but the increase fell from 41% last month to just 10% this month. My guess is that we’ll hit somewhere around 1,800 closed SFH sales in the county reported by the NWMLS this month. As I mentioned in last month’s preview, I suspect this will the the last month of high closed sales before we see a strong drop thanks to the departure of the tax credit. At this point, I wouldn’t be surprised to see less than 1,100 closed sales in July.
Here’s a long-range view of Warranty Deeds, to give you a little more context:
Next, here’s Notices of Trustee Sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:
Big month-to-month jump in foreclosure notices, bringing June to the highest point we’ve seen outside of June last year (which was an oddity induced by state legislation). Not sure what is driving the big spike between May and June this year.
Here’s another measure of foreclosures, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”
Another big spike in bank repossessions, too. This one probably corresponds with the similar spike between February and March in Notices of Trustee Sale, since the process tends to take around three months between the notice and the foreclosure auction.
Lastly, here’s an approximate guess at where the month-end inventory was, based on our sidebar inventory tracker (powered by Estately):
If our inventory tracker is accurate, we’ll edge into positive YOY territory for June, hitting a 2-year high in on-market inventory just in time for sales to fall off a cliff.
This could get interesting.
Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.