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Case-Shiller Tiers: Low Tier Falling Nearly 10% YOY

Posted on January 26, 2011January 26, 2011 by The Tim

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

  • Low Tier: < $256,396 (down 1.3%)
  • Mid Tier: $256,396 – $400,191
  • Hi Tier: > $400,191 (down 0.6%)

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through November 2010.

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

The low tier gave up its fastest-falling title to the middle tier this month, but both the low and middle tier hit new post-peak lows. The low tier has now given up seven percent just since the last month of the tax credit.

There wasn’t a huge variation between the MOM drops in the tiers this month. The low tier dropped 0.7%, the middle tier fell 1.4%, and the high tier lost 0.9%.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through November 2010.

Case-Shiller HPI - YOY Change in Seattle Tiers

All three tiers continued to fall faster in November. The low tier is rapidly approaching double-digit losses again. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of November – Low: -9.4%, Med: -7.2%, Hi: -2.6%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Case-Shiller: Decline from Peak - Seattle Tiers

New low points again for the low and middle tier. The high tier still sits slightly above its February low. Current standing is 32.1% off peak for the low tier, 27.8% off peak for the middle tier, and 24.4% off peak for the high tier.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 01.25.2011)

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Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Prices Still Hitting New Lows
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One in Three Seattle Area Home Listings are Distressed

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