It’s time once again for the monthly reporting roundup, where you can read my wry commentary about the news instead of subjecting yourself to boring rehashes of the NWMLS press release (or in addition to, if that’s what floats your boat).
First up, let’s have a look at the source material from the NWMLS itself. Here’s their press release: Housing market doing "surprisingly well" without a stimulus
“The market is doing surprisingly well without a stimulus,” observed Northwest MLS director OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate Company. “Considering that this time last year there was a rush of buyers trying to beat the tax credit deadline, to have the number of sales off just slightly points towards a strengthening market,” he added.
…Mike Grady, president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain, agreed. “Most real estate professionals will be happy to move past the year-over-year comparisons that have been made the first few months of 2011, as they reflect the boost given home sales by last year’s Homebuyer Tax Credit,” he noted, adding, “Home sales are now standing on their own—without the benefit of incentives—and the market is actually behaving quite typically.”
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Grady senses some neighborhoods appear to be close to recovery, citing remarks by a broker who likened the market to a space capsule re-entering the atmosphere. “While it might appear to be burning out of control, the heat is actually beneficial, providing the friction necessary to slow the descent and allow a safe landing. Perhaps our broader market appears to be smoldering now, but some neighborhoods also appear to be close to recovery. With ‘Spaceship Seattle’ currently offering fewer than two single family homes for sale for every buyer currently under contract, it could be an interesting summer around the real estate launch pad,” he suggested.
That last part really reminds me of the bubble classic about “the last spaceship flight off a planet that’s about to explode.” I’m also really enjoying the logic that a drop in sales from a near-record-low can somehow be a good thing.
Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.
Eric Pryne, Seattle Times: More spring in local home sales, but too soon to call it a trend
King County’s housing market showed more strength than anticipated in March, observers agree.
Was it a blip, or the start of a trend?
Buyers closed on 1,525 houses last month, according to statistics released Wednesday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. As expected, that number was lower than in March 2010.
But the decline — 4.5 percent — was “less than you might have otherwise expected,” said Glenn Crellin, director of the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at Washington State University.
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When compared with March 2010, single-family sales actually increased slightly last month in Southwest and Southeast King County, the county’s most affordable areas. But those areas, where distressed properties make up a larger share of sales, also saw the steepest price declines.
Eric picks up on an interesting trend that supports something I’ve been saying for years: When prices fall to reasonable levels, more buyers jump into the market. Apparently in south King County we’re seeing that a lot more strongly than anywhere else, as the excess volume of foreclosures down there has been helping the market to clear more quickly.
Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: King County house prices rose from February, while sales fell
“The numbers are suprising strong in the absence of the stimulus,” said Glenn Crellin, director of the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at Washington State University. “I think that’s what’s behind some of this is a realization on the part of some consumers that interest rates are rising and they can put up with a little bit of decline in prices in order to secure the home at an affordable interest rate.
Given the sluggish recovery and continued negative news about foreclosures, most people expected “that we weren’t going to see much strength at all,” he said, adding that the year-to-year decline of just 4.5 percent in house sales “is almost a positive sign.”
OK, but February had a year-to-year increase of 0.6 percent in house sales from February 2010.
Nice. I appreciate Aubrey calling out the confusing anti-logic of the NWMLS press release and Glenn Crellin’s latest comments that somehow a drop in sales is a good sign. Sure, it’s not as big a drop as we might have expected, but it’s still a drop from a year that was already one of the worst years on record despite the tax credit.
Mike Benbow, Everett Herald: Home sales in county drop slightly, but prices plummet
Sales of homes in Snohomish County dipped only slightly in March, but prices, depressed by foreclosures and short sales, continued to plummet, the Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported Wednesday.
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Prices continued to fall throughout most of the region, with median home prices in Snohomish County dropping 11.57 percent to $237,000. A year ago, the combined median of single-family homes and condominiums was $268,000.Prices in the county have been dropping significantly each month, pushed by the large number of bank-owned homes and short sales on the local market.
I think my favorite part of this month’s Herald article is the last line (emphasis mine): “The assumption is that many people who don’t have to sell will keep they homes off the market until prices rise again.” Oops. I guess good editors are hard to come by these days.
Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune: Home sales on decline in Pierce county
The Tacoma News Tribune story was basically a copy of the story below in The Olympian (both penned by Rolf Boone), and didn’t really talk much about Pierce County.
Rolf Boone, The Olympian: Median prices down 11 percent compared with same period in 2010
A Thurston County home has become increasingly affordable, but that apparently was not enough to entice many buyers in March as home sales fell last month, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Wednesday.
Thurston County median prices tumbled more than 11 percent to $201,947 last month from $227,500 from the same period a year ago, the combined single-family residence and condominium data show.
Windermere Olympia broker and owner Steve Garrett said Thurston County median prices haven’t been this low since at least 2005, and possibly as far back as 2003, he said.
Although prices fell last month, so, too, did home sales. Sales in Thurston County fell 23 percent to 220 units from 286 units, the combined data show.
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“I’m not sure we’re gong to be as insulated as we have been in the past,” he said about the stabilizing effect of state government here.
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“The overall economy is a real challenge for us right now,” he said.
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But if a prospective home buyer is secure in his or her job, it’s still a good time to buy…
Of course it is. When you ask a real estate professional, it’s always a good time to buy!
(Eric Pryne, Seattle Times, 04.06.2011)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 04.06.2011)
(Mike Benbow, Everett Herald, 04.06.2011)
(Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune, 04.07.2011)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 04.07.2011)