It’s time once again for the monthly reporting roundup, where you can read my wry commentary about the news instead of subjecting yourself to boring rehashes of the NWMLS press release (or in addition to, if that’s what floats your boat).
First up, let’s have a look at the source material from the NWMLS itself. Here’s their press release: Housing market "warming" as brokers report multiple offers in some areas
“While buyers remain cautious, they are ready to pounce on attractive, well priced homes and the open house traffic is very heavy,” [MLS director Mike] Skahen remarked. He credits the hiring at Amazon and general improvement in the Seattle economy with the boost, adding “a good recovery is under way.”
Joe Spencer, president and COO of John L. Scott Real Estate agreed with Skahen, saying the market is “showing signs of normality after three years of decline.” The reduction in new inventory is creating more balance between supply and demand, putting buyers and sellers on equal footing when negotiating a sale. “This is very positive news and should add to the trend toward price stabilization in many areas,” Spencer stated.
And we’re back to the “open house traffic” nonsense again. When you don’t have any verifiable data to back up your claims, fall back to “open house traffic.” It’s the NWMLS way.
Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.
Eric Pryne, Seattle Times: King County homes prices, sales in April slip from year ago
How did King County’s real-estate market perform in April?
That depends on where you look — and whom you ask.
Countywide, the number of houses sold and the median price they fetched both fell nearly 7 percent from April 2010’s figures, according to statistics released Thursday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
Last month’s median sale price was $349,950, down from $375,000 for the same month last year.
Realtors and other market observers attributed the drop in large part to a continuing surge in sales of lower-priced, bank-owned homes and “short sales” for less than buyers owe lenders.
…
All these variations prompted brokers to proclaim Seattle and the Eastside healthy markets — especially when you consider the year-over-year comparisons are with a month in 2010 when sales were juiced by buyers rushing to qualify for now-expired federal tax credits.“Comparing ourselves to a year ago really isn’t fair,” said Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate. “That was a stimulus-driven market,” referring to the federal tax credit that expired last summer.
Come on guys, it isn’t fair. Wait, even with the stimulus, sales last year were one of the lowest of the last decade. But it’s not fair to note how far sales have dropped from that already low level? Hmm.
Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: Hotter housing market? Numbers say ‘no’
Real estate companies say heat is returning to the area’s housing market. But the numbers still don’t show it.
…the listing service reported sales were down 11.4 percent in Seattle and 9.5 percent countywide from a year earlier. Pending sales, which can better reflect recent activity, fell 29.7 percent in the city and 22.5 percent countywide.
Numbers have been down from last year because of the expiration of a home-buyer tax credit. But April’s drops were the biggest this year.
…
“I’m sure that some of the very lowest prices probably are generating the kinds of multiple offers that the (listing service) press release is talking about,” said Glenn Crellin, , director of the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at Washington State University. “But I think by and large the numbers certainly are not as optimistic as the statements from the various board members of the multiple listing service would imply.“I was surprised by how significant the reduction in closed sales was compared to a year ago,” Crellin said.
The decrease in pending sales is worrying, because that will translate to fewer closed sales in coming months, he said. “My expectation is that we’re going to continue to see a sluggish environment.”
Once again, Crellin is right on the mark here. In talking more with the agents here at Redfin, I think I’ve started to get a more clear picture of why the data is in conflict with what agents are experiencing out in the field. More on that subject in the coming weeks.
Mike Benbow, Everett Herald: Foreclosures push county home prices down to 2004 levels
Banks continue to work through their home inventory, and the number of homes for sale have fallen with the prices. There were 4,617 homes listed in the county in April, nearly a 14 percent drop from a year ago.
Many people who don’t have to sell have pulled their homes from the market because of the falling prices.
Joe Spencer of John L. Scott Real Estate said that reduced inventory is creating a better balance of supply and demand. He said it should help to stabilize prices.
If the pattern we saw leading up to the peak of the market is any indication, we can expect it to take about two years for prices to change directions once inventory shifts like this.
Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune: MLS data: Pierce County home sales flat, prices fall in South Sound
Pierce County has some of the lowest median home prices in the region.
As a result, year-over-year home sales in Pierce essentially were flat at 779 units sold last month from 784 units in the year ago period, the combined data show. Elsewhere year-over-year April home sales fell more sharply in King, Snohomish, Kitsap and Thurston County where sales fell 27 percent.
…
In examining both the Pierce and Thurston housing markets, the increased number of home sales in Pierce County likely was lifted by its large military community, Heritage Bank President and Chief Executive Brian Vance said. One reason is that those in the military could take advantage of a first-time home buyer’s tax credit that was extended beyond what was offered to the general public, he said.
Hmm, it almost sounds like the data is showing that when homes are priced more affordably, more of them sell. What a bizarre, unexpected result.
Rolf Boone, The Olympian: Home prices, sales fall again
The South Sound housing market still is looking for momentum in the new year as sales, median prices and pending sales all fell in the year-over-year April period, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Thursday.
Thurston County home sales fell 27.41 percent to 188 units from 259 units, median prices fell 7.77 percent to $209,232 from $226,850 and pending sales fell 29.39 percent to 322 units from 456 units, the combined single-family residence and condominium data show.
In examining the Thurston County housing market, sales likely fell because of the caution created among prospective buyers by the uncertain future of the state budget and more state cuts, Heritage Bank president and chief executive Brian Vance said. Of Heritage’s total loan portfolio, about $45 million is in single-family mortgages, he said.
Less caution is always better for the real estate salepeople. Come on people, why don’t you throw caution to the wind and dive head first into the biggest purchase of your life as quickly as possible? Sheesh.
(Eric Pryne, Seattle Times, 05.05.2011)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 05.05.2011)
(Mike Benbow, Everett Herald, 05.05.2011)
(Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune, 05.06.2011)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 05.06.2011)