I had the privilege last night of moderating a panel discussion about local and national real estate for the Seattle Alternative Investment Association (SAIA). The panel consisted of:
- Stan Humphries, Zillow Chief Economist
- Tim Terrill, Chief Operating Officer of Walton Development and Management
- Karen Weaver, Head of Market Strategy and Research at Seer Capital
The discussion had a generally pessimistic tone, but I tried to end on a slightly upbeat note, asking each panelist what the “silver lining” of today’s market was. I thought their responses were interesting.
Karen (the finance & securities expert) suggested that the silver lining is that we’re moving the economy away from being based so heavily on housing. In her words: “we had an economy based on building granite countertops.” She also said that there’s a shift in sentiment away from viewing home ownership as an investment and to seeing it as a consumption good.
Stan (the consumer website economist) take was that the bright spot in today’s market is for first-time home buyers (now and over the next three to five years), who are able to buy homes at a much better price than was possible during the boom.
Tim (the seasoned developer) described today’s market as a historic buying opportunity. I don’t recall if he said the exact phrase that now is “the best time to buy,” but his sentiment was basically that.
As you might guess, I found myself agreeing more with Karen and Stan last night than with Tim when it came to market outlook, however all three were in agreement that it will take years to work our way back to any sort of normal in the housing market.