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Case-Shiller Tiers: Spring Leaves the Low Tier Behind

Posted on June 29, 2011June 29, 2011 by The Tim

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

  • Low Tier: < $245,631 (up 1.7%)
  • Mid Tier: $245,631 – $387,144
  • Hi Tier: > $387,144 (up 1.7%)

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through April 2011.

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

Continuing the pattern that we have seen for the last few months, the low tier continues to show the most weakness, while the high tier comes out a bit stronger. The low tier rose just 0.5% MOM, the middle tier bumped up 1.3%, and the high tier gained 1.7%.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through April 2011.

Case-Shiller HPI - YOY Change in Seattle Tiers

With such a weak seasonal bump, the low tier increased its YOY losses, while the middle tier and high tier both marked improvements. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of April – Low: -13.0%, Med: -11.2%, Hi: -4.3%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Case-Shiller: Decline from Peak - Seattle Tiers

Current standing is 37.6% off peak for the low tier, 32.6% off peak for the middle tier, and 27.0% off peak for the high tier.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 06.28.2010)

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Case-Shiller: Seattle’s Spring Bounce Picks Up Steam
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June Stats Preview: Top of the Molehill Edition

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