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Case-Shiller Tiers: Low Tier Just Keeps Falling

Posted on August 31, 2011August 31, 2011 by The Tim

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

  • Low Tier: < $248,717 (up 0.2%)
  • Mid Tier: $248,717 – $394,413
  • Hi Tier: > $394,413 (up 0.5%)

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through June 2011.

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

Dang, the low tier just keeps on falling, despite the spring bounce in the other two tiers. The low tier fell 0.5% MOM, the middle tier bumped up 0.8%, and the high tier gained 0.8%.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through June 2011.

Case-Shiller HPI - YOY Change in Seattle Tiers

Only the middle tier rose from last month, thanks to its strong 1.9% MOM bump. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of June – Low: -15.9%, Med: -9.2%, Hi: -3.7%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Case-Shiller: Decline from Peak - Seattle Tiers

Current standing is 38.5% off peak for the low tier, 30.8% off peak for the middle tier, and 25.6% off peak for the high tier.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 08.30.2010)

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Case-Shiller: Spring Still Bouncing, But Weakened Further
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August Stats Preview: Sudden Sales Spike Edition?

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